Philadelphia Phillies: Previewing positives and questions of the 2023 season
It was the Twitterverse, if memory serves, that told us the Philadelphia Phillies pitchers and catchers report for their first workout in Florida on February 16, so obviously it’s time to take a look at what’s coming this season for the defending National League champions.
Phillies fans stay informed. Some even celebrate the day the equipment truck is packed for Clearwater. This year that was February 2. So, let’s get onto some of the changes coming for the Fightin’s and all other MLB teams:
The new infield
No, this isn’t exactly about the Phillies signing Trea Turner; it’s about how infield play will be changed radically this coming season. The most obvious and commented upon change is the banning of the shift, and a very serious ban that is — not so much the fact that infielders must start two on each side of second base for every pitch, but also that they must have both feet on the infield dirt until the pitcher’s foot leaves the rubber with the pitch.
It remains to be seen how closely this will be enforced because some infielders will surely start moving to better positions for various hitters just before pitches are released.
The Philadelphia Phillies and all other MLB teams will be playing a different game in 2023
The shift as we now think of it dates back at least to the time of Ted Williams, and was likely used even before Teddy Ballgame was slamming pitches to the right side, but that business of both feet in the infield will surely have second basemen and shortstops tripping over their own feet now and then at the season’s beginning as one or the other races backwards and to the left (or right) as a pitch is released.
Grace — and its measurement somehow — will become a “thing.”
Also, look for a lot of Phillies defensive plays to begin with either Bryson Stott or Turner close enough to second base to spit directly down onto it.
And don’t forget the pitcher is an infielder. MLB pitchers will be working up a bit more of a sweat more quickly this season because of the new pitch clock — 15 seconds between pitches with no baserunners, 20 seconds otherwise.
Finally, stolen bases may be coming back into baseball because “disengagements” — throwing to a base or stepping off — will be limited to two per plate appearance. And the bases are a bit bigger, so the distance is between bases is cut down by that sometimes important, tiny distance.
In more concrete terms, both of the above changes suggest the 30-year-old Turner may surpass his 24-year-old total of 46 stolen bases, his career high.
From a defensive perspective, however, at least any infielder trying to tag him out won’t be trying to cover his base from another zip code.
But the major change with the infielder who starts each play is the fact that every team’s slower-working pitchers will have to work somewhat more quickly. That “somewhat” is there for a reason, though. For example, L.A. writer Jorge Castillo notes that the Dodgers closer, Kenley Jansen, was MLB’s third-slowest pitcher between releases (25.6 seconds), but the time between releases isn’t what will be timed.
The clock will run from when the pitcher gloves his catcher’s throw until he begins his delivery.
Therefore, watch for catchers dawdling between catching pitches and returning them.
The sort of balanced schedule
In the apparent interest of fan interest, MLB has “balanced” every team’s schedule this year, which doesn’t exactly mean it is 100 percent balanced or even 95 percent so, but does mean that every team will get to play every other team at some point.
Significantly, however, competition against division opponents will drop from 76 games a season to 52.
That every-team-seen set-up is nice for Phillies fans since legendary Eagles fan Mike Trout will play in Citizens Bank Park in August. More importantly, however, this means 24 fewer games against the loaded Braves, the loaded-but-underachieving Mets, the upgraded Marlins, and unfortunately, the struggling Nationals.
Phillies manager Rob Thomson is on the record as liking this balance, saying that it’s “fair for everybody. Especially when there are all these wild cards….” However, as Todd Zolecki points out, the 12 “lost” games for Philadelphia against the Braves and Mets will be replaced by the Astros, Yankees and Mariners, all 2022 playoff teams still playing or starting play in the Divisional round, and the Rangers, who now feature Corey Seager and Jacob deGrom.
There’s not a lot to be said about six of those games in ’22 (against New York and Seattle) except that they will feature lineups facing pitchers they’re likely not too familiar with, in the cases of both teams. Unfamiliar pitchers tend to dominate MLB hitters except when those hurlers really don’t quite belong at the MLB level.
However, for the Phillies, they can probably count on seeing the familiar deGrom in one of those games against Texas, indeed very likely in the season-opener in Arlington, as well as … um … Houston pitchers who just dominated them when it counted in the last World Series.
The Phillies will also see, like all other MLB teams, a huge increase in games against teams from that other league. Interleague games for each team will jump from 20 to 46.
Somewhat annoyingly, this will mean for the Phillies 14 games in April alone against these American League teams: Texas, New York (back-to-back to open), Chicago, Seattle, and Houston.
New Phillies faces
Befitting a league champion trying its hardest to take advantage of its two-time MVP on a long contract, Bryce Harper, the Phillies added significant pieces to their active roster. As most fans know, first and foremost among them is two-time All-Star Trea Turner, a career .302 hitter and still one of the fastest players in baseball.
What such a player brings to a team with a strong lineup should be obvious. (Hint: see the passage here about OBP.) Hey, maybe the Phillies can win the NL East now as well as the NL Championship.
Beyond Turner, the second highest profile addition to the team is surely Craig Kimbrel, the career relief pitcher who has booked 394 career saves with a success rate of 89.1 percent. Now 34, Kimbrel has been told, apparently, that he will be added to Thomson’s “musical chairs” approach to closing games, and apparently, this is all right with veteran closer.
Kimbrel’s ERA and WHIP figures the past two years have not been his best, but while his batting average against jumped from .150 in 2021 with both Chicago teams to .227 last summer with the Dodgers, his HR surrender rate dropped from 5.1 percent with the White Sox for half a campaign to 1.5 percent for the full season in L.A.
The Phillies have also added much-needed starter Taijuan Walker in the hope that he can maintain the solid numbers he put up with the Mets last year for the rest of his early 30s. He is signed for four years at a consistent $18 million a year.
Also considered an important addition, for the most part because he is left-handed, Gregory Soto will join Kimbrel in the bullpen. Soto will be a nice alternative to Jose Alvarado after two All-Star years in Detroit. The word of caution about Soto is that, as Alvarado once did, he walks a few too many hitters.
The Phillies have shown they can coach some players through that.
A perusal of Philadelphia’s active roster reveals a number of other new faces probably unknown to most fans. They are largely candidates for the ever-rebuilding bullpen, including Luis Ortiz, Erich Uelmen, Michael Plassmeyer, and Matt Strahm. And yes, there are even more.
Exceptions to the above statements are infielders/utilitymen Kody Clemens and the veteran Josh Harrison. Now a journeyman who will turn 36 in mid-season, Harrison will be interesting to watch. He has booked OBPs of .352, .341, and .317 since leaving Detroit in 2019 and can still play multiple positions in the field.
The problems ahead
Besides competing in an absolutely loaded division in which they finished with fewer than 90 wins last season, the Phillies’ most obvious problem is clearly that they will have to play the first half of their season without Bryce Harper. This is one among several reasons Trea Turner was signed.
Harper’s absence would also be counted as the second- and third-ranked problems, arguably.
Fourth, then, would be that the Phillies just resigned slugger Rhys Hoskins to a $12 million one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. Hoskins, a team mainstay and very positive clubhouse presence, has hit 148 home runs in the equivalent of four and a half full seasons. He endeared himself to fans last postseason with a pivotal homer and celebratory display.
However, he is only an average fielder at best, and he won’t have the backup of an extra fielder on his side of the field for shifts this season. This is a contract year for him, though. He is now a veteran, and now faces a performance challenge.
This “let’s see” reality of Hoskins’ position suggests the fifth problem, which seems to be a cluster of unknowns related to the team’s changes, including a couple from last year: Will Brandon Marsh continue to develop as well in center field and as a hitter as he initially did after coming over from the Angels last summer? Can Alec Bohm continue to act and play like a real MLB third baseman, or could he revert to his petulance of ’21?
Will Turner and Stott work well together as a double-play combination? Will Kimbrel and Soto actually contribute something? Can the pitching staff as a whole cohere, or even dominate, in that way that suggests they don’t need tinkering at mid-season or at the end of it? Will not designating a closer continue to work?
Finally, can the team come together and play the kind of baseball their lineup suggests they should, as they did at various points last season, albeit inconsistently until the playoffs?
The answer to some of these questions will undoubtedly be “no.” All this said, a whole lot of teams would gladly trade their anticipated problems for the issues Phillies fans should see coming.