New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays? Who has best AL East lineup?

When it comes to the projected top of the American League East standings in 2023, most experts agree it will be a battle between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees for division supremacy.

Sure, the Tampa Bay Rays and even the Baltimore Orioles could well be in the battle for a postseason spot, but it is the Blue Jays and Yankees that most oddsmakers put as the top two in the American League East for the upcoming season. One of the biggest reasons for that? The projected lineups rolled out by the two clubs on Opening Day and beyond.

Best lineup on MLB Opening Day: New York Yankees or Toronto Blue Jays?

For this article, we’re going to look at projected lineups and their wRC+ (which is explained here) for the upcoming season. A quick shout-out to Eric Treuden, who is the site expert at our sister site, Jays Journal, for doing the work and creating a Twitter thread (you can see here) on the subject, detailing all of the projected lineups and their associated  in the AL East.

As you can see from the thread, Treuden used FanGraphs Depth Charts as the determination for the numbers in this article. Also, as a reminder, 100 wRC+ is considered league average.

Let’s start this article with the Boston Red Sox, the team projected by FanGraphs ZiPS to finish last in the AL East with a 79-83 record.

2023 Boston Red Sox projected lineup and wRC+

LF Yoshida 138

SS Hernández 101

3B Devers 138

DH Turner 120

RF Verdugo 116

CF Duvall 103

1B Casas 122

2B Mondesí 87

C McGuire 88

Team average — 112.6

Note: It’s certainly a different Red Sox team in 2022 without Xander Bogaerts, who left in the offseason for a big contract in San Diego. Without Bogaerts and Trevor Story (out with elbow surgery to start the season), what will Boston look like up the middle and at the plate?

2023 New York Yankees projected lineup and wRC+

2B Torres 118

RF Judge 167

1B Rizzo 125

DH Stanton 130

3B Donaldson 108

CF Bader 107

LF Hicks 99

SS Peraza 101

C Trevino 81

Team average — 115.1

Note: Take a hard look at that number, Yankees fans. It actually ranks fourth in the division, just behind Baltimore’s 115.6. The bottom of the order is certainly a concern, and Aaron Hicks and the left field position will likely be in the crosshairs for most New York fans all season. Judge’s 167 wRC+ is the highest in the entire division, but New York’s punch drops significantly from there.

It feels like last year all over again … for now. How much DJ LeMahieu can bounce back could make an impact in the Bronx and on these numbers for a team that is projected to finish 89-73 and win the division.

2023 Toronto Blue Jays projected lineup and wRC+

RF Springer 135

SS Bichette 128

1B Guerrero Jr. 154

C Kirk 133

LF Varsho 123

3B Chapman 119

DH Belt 122

2B Merrifield 95

CF Kiermaier 87

Team average — 121.8

Note: New faces in the lineup certainly have boosted the Blue Jays in the projections, with Toronto expected to have the most potent lineup of any AL East team. The trade for Daulton Varsho has drawn plenty of attention, but the signing of Brandon Belt could make just as big of an impact if these projections hold out. Toronto is projected to finish one game behind New York in the standings with an 88-74 mark.

Again, these are all projections and do not take into account anything pitching-related. However, it’s an interesting baseline to keep in mind as spring training begins next week.

Where do you see projections that are too high or too low? Do you agree or disagree with these rankings? Let us know in the comments section below.