Braves, Mets, or Phillies? Who has the best NL East lineup?

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In 2022, the National League East was a battle between three really good teams: the Atlanta Braves, New York Mets, and Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves and Mets both won more than 100 games and the Phillies (who were in third place) won the National League and got to Game 6 of the World Series.

The Miami Marlins have taken some steps to improve their team and the Washington Nationals are clearly in the basement of the division and in the basement of the National League.

The Braves, Mets, and Phillies are, largely, in the positions that they are entering the 2023 season due to the strong starting lineups.

Who has the best starting lineup in the NL East: The Braves, Mets, or Phillies?

As Call To The Pen’s Kevin Henry mentioned in this article about the NL East lineups (h/t Jays Journal‘s Eric Treuden), we are using FanGraphs Depth Charts 2023 projections as the determination for each of these players and teams. For the place in the lineups, we’ll also use Roster Resource (via FanGraphs).

As a reminder for wRC+, 100 is league average. The number is a percentage above or below league average.

Here’s what the Atlanta Braves’ lineup looks like entering the 2023 season.

Acuña Jr., RF (139 wRC+)
Harris II, CF (117)
Riley, 3B (137)
Olson, 1B (132)
Murphy, C (116)
Albies, 2B (113)
Rosario, LF (88)
Ozuna, DH (108)
Grissom, SS (100)

Team Average: 116.7

Note: ZiPS projects the Braves to be in first place in the NL East with a 94-68 record. With eight players at or above league average offensively, it’s easy to see why. The clear weak spot is Eddie Rosario in left field.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – OCTOBER 07: (NEW YORK DAILIES OUT) Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets in action against the San Diego Padres during game one of the NL Wild Card Series at Citi Field on October 07, 2022 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Padres defeated the Mets 7-1. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

2023 Miami Marlins projected lineup and wRC+

Arraez, 2B (122)
Segura, 3B (106)
Chisholm Jr., CF (116)
Cooper, 1B (114)
Garcia, RF (95)
Soler, DH (116)
Wendle, SS (99)
De La Cruz, LF (107)
Stallings, C (88)

Team Average: 107

Note: The Marlins made some upgrades at the top of the lineup with Luis Arraez and Jean Segura. Injuries to Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García significantly hampered the Marlins’ offense in 2022 so, perhaps, if they are healthy, the Marlins could even have a better offense. Regardless, at least on paper, the Marlins currently have a sneaky lineup. It’s not in the tier that the Braves, Mets, and Phillies are but with a move or two, they could be a dark horse team for the third Wild Card spot in 2022. They are projected to go 75-87 via ZiPS.

2023 New York Mets projected lineup and wRC+

Nimmo, CF (132)
Marte, RF (115)
Lindor, SS (118)
Alonso, 1B (143)
McNeil, 2B (124)
Vogelbach, DH (120)
Canha, LF (120)
Escobar, 3B (101)
Narvaez, C (100)

Team Average: 119.2

Note: The Mets do not have a weakness in their lineup and with their payroll (well over $330 million), they shouldn’t have a weakness. Left field is what sets them apart from the Braves as Rosario is a much weaker hitter than Canha. Canha has an on-base percentage of .374 and an OPS of .802 since 2019 … and he’s hitting seventh. His OPS+ (which is comparable to wRC+) in that span is 125. Despite this stronger lineup, the Mets are projected to go 94-68, which is the same exact record that the Braves are projected to have.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – DECEMBER 08: Trea Turner # 7 of the Philadelphia Phillies smiles during his introductory press conference at Citizens Bank Park on December 8, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

2023 Philadelphia Phillies projected lineup and wRC+

Turner, SS (127)
Schwarber, LF (129)
Hoskins, 1B (121)
Realmuto, C (113)
Castellanos, RF (108)
Hall, DH (101)
Bohm, 3B (104)
Stott, 2B (96)
Marsh, CF (82)

Team Average: 109

Note: The Phillies added Trea Turner at the top of their lineup, which will be a big upgrade over Jean Segura. However, from Castellanos to Marsh, the Phillies lineup drops off a lot whereas the Braves and Mets lineups don’t have that huge of a dropoff. They are projected to go 87-75, which would be third in NL East. That’s where their lineup ranks in the NL East as well. It would also be good enough for them to get to the playoffs as the third NL Wild Card team so, perhaps, they could repeat what they did last year.

2022 Washington Nationals projected lineup and wRC+

Thomas, CF (102)
Abrams, SS (91)
Meneses, DH (110)
Ruiz, C (106)
Dickerson, LF (98)
Candelario, 3B (104)
Garcia, 2B (98)
Smith, 1B (101)
Robles, CF (81)

Team Average: 99

For a team that lost 107 games in 2022, you may think that having a 99 wRC+ sounds a bit high. However, they had a 93 wRC+ last season and a 99 OPS+ … but that was with about 100 games of Juan Soto. They have some prospects that should take a step forward, like Keibert Ruiz. Their biggest problem is that they have an atrocious pitching staff. You simply cannot compete under any circumstances with a team ERA+ of 79. They are projected to go 64-98 in 2023.

So, at least for the NL East, the lineup projections seem to be very indicative of how things could be in 2023 but without the Braves addressing left field and the Mets having a full season of Daniel Vogelbach and if they have a healthy Omar Narvaez, that gives them a slight edge for their lineup … and maybe even a slight edge in the division.

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