Los Angeles Dodgers or San Diego Padres? Who has best NL West lineup?

Two of baseball’s most exciting teams reside in the NL West: the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. These teams met in the 2022 postseason, where the Padres edged out the Dodgers three games to one in the NLDS. But don’t get that singular result twisted: this rivalry is just getting started and looks to be towards the top of must-watch storylines during the 2023 season.

In the regular season last year, the Dodgers won a franchise-record 111 games and a ninth NL West title in 10 years, while the second-place Padres won 89 games and snuck into the playoff picture as the five seed. Behind them were the middling San Francisco Giants (81-81), the intriguing but still bad Arizona Diamondbacks at 74-88 and the lowly ColoradoRockies, finishing as NL West cellar dwellers in 2022 with a 68-94 record despite adding Kris Bryant prior to last season.

This year, the division standings could look a bit different, though, thanks to some monster additions during the winter.

Who has the best lineup in the NL West: the LA Dodgers or Padres?

For this exercise, we’ll be using FanGraphs’ 2023 projections as seen in previous versions of this article.

Here’s what the Los Angeles Dodgers’ projected lineup looks like in 2023:

1. Mookie Betts, RF (141 wRC+)
2. Freddie Freeman, 1B (147)
3. Will Smith, C (135)
4. Max Muncy, 3B (125)
5. J.D. Martinez, DH (118)
6. Gavin Lux, SS (108)
7. Trayce Thompson, CF (102)
8. David Peralta, LF (98)
9. Miguel Vargas, 2B (76)

This is a stout group once again, with seven players above the league average mark of 100 wRC+. It’s easy to see why this group could help lead the Dodgers to the projected finish of tied for first place in the NL West with 91 wins, per ZiPS.

2023 Arizona Diamondbacks projected lineup and wRC+

1. Corbin Carroll, LF (116 wRC+)
2. Ketel Marte, 2B (128)
3. Jake McCarthy, RF (103)
4. Christian Walker, 1B (119)
5. Josh Rojas, 3B (104)
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., DH (116)
7. Alek Thomas, CF (98)
8. Carson Kelly, C (105)
9. Nick Ahmed, SS (90)

Arizona has some intriguing young players and a deep farm system, which bodes well for their future. And their projected lineup for 2023 isn’t half-bad. It’s certainly a far cry from the Dodgers and Padres, but it’s definitely close in caliber to the Giants’ lineup. The Diamondbacks also added catching prospect Gabriel Moreno and veteran third baseman Evan Longoria this winter, both of whom figure to see playing time in 2023.

2023 Colorado Rockies projected lineup and wRC+

1. Yonathan Daza, CF (91 wRC+)
2. Kris Bryant, LF (130)
3. Ryan McMahon, 3B (101)
4. C.J. Cron, 1B (110)
5. Charlie Blackmon, DH (97)
6. Brendan Rodgers, 2B (106)
7. Randal Grichuk, RF (97)
8. Elias Diaz, C (88)
9. Ezequiel Tovar, SS (97)

Well, at least Kris Bryant is coming back, right? After missing a bulk of the 2022 season with injuries, Bryant is expected to carry this mediocre Rockies group in 2023 which features just four above-average run creators, according to FanGraphs. Colorado has all the components of a lineup  worthy of the NL West basement once again.

Overall, these projections seem mostly in line with how the NL West is projected to shake out in 2023. The Padres and Dodgers are the overwhelming favorites to clinch the division, and their battle for supremacy will be one to watch this season. That said, the Giants and Diamondbacks could both be underrated this season, more so than you’d expect. Still, they’re no viable threat to San Diego or Los Angeles. The Rockies don’t even make it into conversation.

So who has the best lineup in the NL West? The San Diego Padres would seem to have the advantage here. Every single bat in their lineup is projected to be above-average, something not even the Dodgers can say, according to FanGraphs. Nevertheless, this should be a fun year ahead.