MLB predictions: Way-too-early World Series previous winners edition

HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 05: Jeremy Pena #3 of the Houston Astros lifts the commissioner's trophy after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 to win the 2022 World Series in Game Six of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park on November 05, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 05: Jeremy Pena #3 of the Houston Astros lifts the commissioner's trophy after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies 4-1 to win the 2022 World Series in Game Six of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park on November 05, 2022 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
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Even though pitchers and catchers only report to Spring Training this week, it is nonetheless, as deemed by some, never too early to make World Series predictions. From the talking heads on television to the New York Mets practicing their World Series celebration before the season even begins, premature MLB predictions seem to be all the rage.

I, however, want to explore the eight ghosts (the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox being the repeating offenders) of World Series past (from 2013 to 2022) and see where they stand going into the 2023 season. Based on their performance in the last couple of years, can these winners in the last 10 years make the dance this year?

MLB prediction: The Juggernauts

The Kansas City Royals (2015)

If I’m being frank, I do not remember Kansas City’s World Series appearances. Maybe it is because in the years before and after their win, the Royals seemed to be in a perpetual rebuild. Despite being in a lackluster AL Central, the Royals muddle around last place with a concerning consistency.

2022 was no different. With the fifth-lowest run differential, a 65-97 record, and a batting average just above the league’s average, chasing a ring is the least of Kansas City’s worries. What they need to focus on is

a. developing talent, and

b. building around said talent.

Perhaps firing their long-time GM/President of Baseball Operations Dayton Moore (who was their GM during their World Series run) will get them out of rebuild purgatory. Bobby Witt Jr., who was MLB’s top prospect last year, had a promising rookie year, at least. Signing Aroldis Chapman, while slightly concerning considering his previous seasons with the Yankees, shows that the Royals are willing to spend some money in free agency (the Royals currently have the fifth-lowest payroll in the league). However, optimism does not seem to be an option for this team.

At least Kansas City has the Chiefs.

The Washington Nationals (2019)

Oh, Nationals. My heart weeps for thee. After dominating the NL East in the early 2010s, winning the pennant the year they lost Bryce Harper was, to put it plainly, poetic justice. The 2019 team, stacked with the likes of Max Scherzer, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner, after years of missing the mark slightly, took advantage of their window being open.

I just didn’t realize how quickly that window would close. Despite the shortened 2020 season, the Nationals finished tied for last place in the NL East with the Mets. 2021 did not fare better for the Nats, and with a 42-47 record going to All-Star Break, the 2019 squad imploded, and the rebuild officially began.

2022 saw the Nationals say goodbye to Juan Soto, them having the worst record league-wide and the worst run differential league-wide, among other disasters. The announcement of the Lerner family looking at selling the team does not bode well for the Nats as well. At least one team in Washington is going through an ownership change. As the team rebuilds, I heavily doubt we’ll be seeing the Nats make it this year.

CHICAGO, IL – NOVEMBER 04: Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs holds the World Series trophy during the Chicago Cubs victory celebration in Grant Park on November 4, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs won their first World Series championship in 108 years after defeating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game 7. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – NOVEMBER 04: Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs holds the World Series trophy during the Chicago Cubs victory celebration in Grant Park on November 4, 2016 in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs won their first World Series championship in 108 years after defeating the Cleveland Indians 8-7 in Game 7. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

What Happened, Guys? 

The Chicago Cubs (2016)

I recently watched a clip of Bryce Harper walking off the 2019 Cubs in epic fashion. One of the comments reads, “… All of our 2016 magic died right then and there. You could argue that it died in the 2018 wildcard game but to me, this was the moment when it became official…” I agree wholeheartedly.

Back in 2016, it felt like the entire world (sans maybe the NL Central and White Sox) was rooting for the Cubs. Game 7 of that year could, in essence, be described as magical. Watching any footage of Cubs fans reacting to that win melts the heart a little bit. All these factors made the fall from grace hurt just a little more.

The thing is, this fall from grace was slow, punctuated by losses early in the playoffs in 2017, 2018, and 2020, as well as missing the wild card in 2019, prompting the exit of Joe Maddon. By the time 2021 rolled around, it was impossible to ignore the inevitable rebuild. Rizzo, Baez, Bryant? All gone. 2022 fared no better, with the Cubs finishing fourth in their division. However, with the recent signings of Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger, and names like Nico Hoerner beginning to stand out more, one can hope for a better season. Not World Series material, but getting closer.

The Boston Red Sox (2013, 2018)

How does a team go from nearly making the World Series in 2021 to coming in last in the division in 2022? Being in the AL East, for one, means constantly being on your toes. Every team in that division but the Red Sox finished with a record of over .500. Even then, Boston was only three games below, with a record of 78-84. June 2022 was especially great for the Red Sox, going 12-6.

Unfortunately for them, the baseball season does not end in June. July 2022, to put it plainly, was pure agony. The Red Sox won only eight (eight!) games in the entire month. Getting swept by division rivals, losing enormous blowout games, and simply forgetting how to play baseball cost Boston the division. I don’t think I even have to go into detail about that game versus the Blue Jays.

However, 2023 might be interesting for Boston. Out of their 2018 winning team, only four players remain. Their most recent losses in Xander Bogaerts and JD Martinez are somewhat concerning, considering both their offensive prowess. Extending Rafael Devers to a 10-year contract seems to be a positive blip in a rather disappointing offseason, and the signings of Kenley Jansen, Adam Duvall, and Justin Turner hopefully will add some depth to the roster. Overall, I feel tentative about Boston going into the post-season, but who knows? Stranger things have happened.

The San Francisco Giants (2014)

If I were a San Francisco Giants fan last year, I’d be disappointed as well. After their 2021 run was cut short in devastating fashion, I expected the Giants to have a similar year. Looking back at the years before their 107-55 year, however, it appears as though that season was an outlier. It was their first winning season since 2017. 2022 prompted another, frankly, mediocre season. Finishing 81-81, the Giants just barely missed the playoffs.

Their roster did not change too drastically; Buster Posey retired, Kevin Gausman and Kris Bryant left (among others), while the roster gained names like Joc Pederson and Carlos Rodon. Mike Yastrzemski and Brandon Crawford were among those from the 2021 team who stayed. The main difference between 2021 and 2022 was the performance of these players.

Though cliche, the “there is no I in team” adage applies to the Giants. When looking at overall production from their roster, there are a select few that have a WAR over 2. Logan Webb and Carlos Rodón proved to be excellent starters but, at the same time, Camilo Doval regressed, going from 5-1 in 2021 to 6-6 in 2022. Brandon Crawford, who was an All-Star in 2021, boasted a batting average of .231 to end the year.

Despite individual players having great years, the team overall did not gell. Hopefully, in 2023, the Giants will find the cohesiveness they need to compete with Los Angeles and San Diego.

HOUSTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 02: The Atlanta Braves celebrate their 7-0 victory against the Houston Astros in Game Six to win the 2021 World Series at Minute Maid Park on November 02, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 02: The Atlanta Braves celebrate their 7-0 victory against the Houston Astros in Game Six to win the 2021 World Series at Minute Maid Park on November 02, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /

The Big Kahunas

The Los Angeles Dodgers (2020)

The L.A. Dodgers seem to be the epitome of the old saying, “always a bridesmaid, never a bride.” Since 2013, the Dodgers have made the playoffs every single year with 2020 being the year they finally got to the altar. If anything, this is an indication of the sheer potential that this team has.

In 2022 alone, they led the entire league in wins, runs per game, run differentials, and had the highest combined WAR, just to name a few. Big moves in free agency over the last couple of years show that the Dodgers want to win. Management has paid a pretty penny for these big names; 2022 saw the Dodgers with the MLB’s largest payroll.

If anything, the Dodgers serve as a cautionary tale — payroll, star power, etc., doesn’t mean jack. Hopefully, Dave Roberts won’t make the same mistake as last year in guaranteeing a pennant in Los Angeles. The baseball gods can give, but they can also just as easily take away! Nonetheless, making the playoffs should be easy for L.A. As for the World Series, well, we’ll have to see.

The Atlanta Braves (2021)

As is the case with any die-hard fan, I believed that Atlanta would repeat their almost storybook 2021 run last year. Those the Braves didn’t lose to free agency were coming back, new faces in Matt Olson would shape up the lineup, and the new class of Baby Braves led me to dream about Atlanta winning the dance again.

Unfortunately, all but a few of the team seemed to take their foot off the pedal, losing to the Phillies in the NLDS. Despite a rocky start and end, the Braves finished third in combined WAR, second in OPS, and had one of the best bullpens in the league (thank you, Raisel Iglesias).

I hope that we won’t see a repeat of the ’90s Braves, with the 1995 pennant race being the only time Atlanta received a ring during this dominant era. If Atlanta keeps losing in the NLDS or NLCS, or if we keep losing stars in free agency, however, history may be doomed to repeat itself. Nonetheless (and you can call me biased or accuse me of drinking the Kool-Aid), my head is high. Ronald Acuña, Jr. is coming back healthier, Max Fried is going to win a Cy Young, and Michael Harris II will win World Series MVP. A girl can dream, anyway.

The Houston Astros (2017, 2022)

It is not that I necessarily want them to win. The Astros are like the Yankees in that only Astros fans want the Astros to win. Critics claiming that their 2017 win was fraudulent were proven right after World Series losses in 2019 and 2021. 2022, at least in the eyes of Astros fans, proved to the baseball world that, “Yes, this team is legit.” What makes them different from the Dodgers or Braves, however? The short answer is consistency.

The Astros have appeared in the ALCS five more times since their pennant win in 2017. They’ve won the AL pennant three times since then and won the AL West division back to back to back to back, etc. In the last year, they had the lowest average ERA in the American League. The hitting core in Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and the new upstart in Jeremy Peña (to name a few) can’t seem to slow down.

The hate dished at this team seems to fuel them; it makes them stronger. Like the Sith in Star Wars. World Series hangover is real, as evidenced by how Atlanta started the season last year. With the Astros, however, it will be onward and upwards, and much to our chagrin, another ring.

The Bottom Line

I could prattle on about statistics, wins, losses, etc., but, in the end, it’s about who is the last standing in October, and the key to that is consistency. As of now, the Dodgers, Braves, and Astros proved to be the most consistent in the last couple of years. So, come October, will it be one of these teams holding up the new trophy? Or will the other teams on this list come back to their former glory? As I said before, it is only the beginning of the season, so only time will tell. However, it is nonetheless fun to think about!

Next. Where the Astros rank among MLB's great dynasties. dark

Note: Thank you to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference for the statistics!

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