What it could mean for MLB in 2023
With respect to the shift ban, the law of unintended consequences can be posited this way: Freed from the worry of how to outsmart a defensive shift, did Double-A batters in 2021 and 2022 revert to a “swing for the fences” mentality and, in the process, open their games up to even more swing and miss?
Only a thorough psychoanalysis of Double-A batters in 2021 and 2022 would support firm conclusions for why strikeout rates rose to precipitously after the shift was banned. As previously noted, coincidence cannot be ruled out … although the extreme nature of the K-rate increase suggests that something more than coincidence or a change in the cast of characters is at work.
If there is a class of hitters projected to be most aided by a shift ban, it would be left-handed power hitters. As previously noted, shift rates against them topped 50 percent in recent seasons.
But, not coincidentally, left handed power hitters — think Joey Gallo or Kyle Schwarber — are exactly the group most likely to run afoul of the law of unintended consequences and see their strikeout rates rise in the pursuit of freedom from the restrictions imposed on them by the shift.
The goal is to put more balls in play. Baseball will further suffer if this change, which is designed to increase action, has the opposite effect.