3 reasons Miami Marlins won’t sign Manny Machado
Manny Machado might be entering free agency next fall, but the Miami Marlins have no shot at landing the superstar third baseman.
In many ways, Manny Machado would be one of the better free agent fits in years for the Miami Marlins.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean that there is even a snowball’s chance in South Beach that the Miami Marlins will be signing him next offseason.
Sure, excitement was the natural reaction when the news broke Friday that the superstar third baseman would be opting out of his contract next fall to test the market. For fans of the Marlins, and for fans of twenty-eight other MLB teams. Well, okay, maybe twenty-seven other teams. Pirates fans are probably immune to such things by now.
However, the fact remains that the player in question will be 31 years old on Opening Day 2024. Yes, that’s 31 years old, and looking to improve on $32 million per year over the next five years. That’s a massive investment for any team, but especially Miami.
Manny Machado is way too expensive for the Miami Marlins
Why too expensive for the Marlins? Start with this hypothetical. Suppose Machado has just gotten really tired of not being viewed as the second best offensive player on his team, or simply misses afternoon thunderstorms. Suppose opting out isn’t about the money, but just wanting to play somewhere else, for whatever the reason. Spotlight, climate, family, take your pick.
If Manny Machado signed with the Miami Marlins for the exact same amount of money he could currently make by simply opting in to the rest of his contract, it would be the second largest contract every awarded by the Marlins organization.
That’s even adjusted for inflation. Only Giancarlo Stanton’s $325 million “forever deal” back in 2014 would be ahead of the $165 million Machado would be signing for in the above scenario. Stanton was twenty-four when he signed that deal. Machado would be seven years older.
The problem should be obvious. Bruce Sherman wasn’t willing to shoulder that load for Stanton at the age of twenty-eight, with the entire contract described as an albatross that would cripple the club’s ability to operate. That was for an established home grown star that had just won the NL MVP award, and led the league in home runs. In short, the season Aaron Judge just had.
Certainly, part of that refusal was tied to the perceived need to rebuild the organization from the ground up. Still, Machado is very likely looking for more money than Stanton received. Which essentially means asking his next team to pay him top dollar for three to four elite seasons, and then five to six years of decline. While none of these mega salaries really “make sense,” they are at least somewhat defensible when the good years outnumber the bad.
Even the Los Angeles Dodgers passed on going down that road with Trea Turner this year. There is no way the Miami Marlins will choose to do so next year with Machado.
Particularly in light of the fact that…