Cardinals, Brewers or Cubs? Which NL Central team lineup is best?
In 2022, the National League Central division was arguably the weakest in the National League and perhaps in all of baseball. After all, four teams in MLB lost 100 or more games and two of them (the Reds and Pirates) reside in the NL Central. The division’s winner (the St. Louis Cardinals) had the second-fewest wins among a division winner (93) and the second and third-place teams (the Brewers and Cubs) had the second-worst records of teams in second and third place with 86 and 74 wins.
This offseason, though, the teams in the division have sought to somewhat change the look of their starting lineups to help change the standings. But have they changed enough to change the outlook of the division?
Let’s see how the starting lineups stack up for each NL Central team entering 2023.
Who has the best starting lineup in the National League Central in 2023?
To see who has the best lineup in the National League Central, we will use the most objective methodology: statistical projections. Of course, we cannot predict the future with a 100 percent degree of accuracy because things can definitely change between the end of the season and now (injuries, trades, etc.)
For the placement in the lineups, we are using Roster Resource (via Fangraphs) and for each player, we are using wRC+, which attempts to encapsulate each player’s total offensive production. For that wRC+ projection, we are using FanGraphs Depth Charts 2023 projections.
- Hoerner, 2B (104 wRC+)
- Swanson, SS (108)
- Happ, LF (113)
- Suzuki, RF (131)
- Hosmer, 1B (108)
- Mancini, DH (106)
- Bellinger, CF (98)
- Morel, 3B (99)
- Barnhart, C (76)
- Team Average: 104.7
Note: Of the five NL Central teams, the Cubs have added the highest amount of new names to their starting lineup. Swanson, Hosmer, Mancini, Bellinger, and Barnhart are all new to the team. If Yan Gomes plays more than Barnhart at catcher, the projected wRC+ goes up (Gomes’ projected wRC+ is 90) but as of now, Barnhart will play against right-handed pitchers and, therefore, he’d get more playing time. In 2022, the Cubs had a 98 wRC+ as a team, which was tied for 19th.
2023 Cincinnati Reds projected lineup and wRC+
- Friedl, LF (100)
- India, 2B (105)
- Votto, DH (103)
- Stephenson, C (102)
- Myers, 1B (107)
- Fraley, RF (109)
- Steer, 3B (99)
- Newman, SS (84)
- Senzel, CF (87)
- Team Average: 99.6
Note: The Reds don’t actually have a bad lineup. It’s not great (as noted by their wRC+) but they have two other bigger issues: their pitching (or lack thereof) and their health. In 2022, they had only had one player play more than 110 games … and that player (Kyle Farmer) is not with the team anymore. He is now with the Minnesota Twins. Stephenson is probably their best bat but he only played in 50 games in 2022. If they can rotate him between catching, DH, and first base (as they plan on doing), then he has a better chance of being healthy for the entirety of the season.
2023 Milwaukee Brewers projected lineup and wRC+
- Yelich, LF (116)
- Adames, SS (115)
- Tellez, 1B (122)
- Contreras, C (111)
- Winker, DH (122)
- Urias, 3B (111)
- Mitchell, CF (94)
- Taylor, RF (102)
- Turang, 2B (84)
- Team Average: 108.6
Note: The Brewers get a bit of a jump with the additions of Contreras and Winker. Their lineup would also be even stronger (in projections) when considering that their two weakest hitters (Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang) would be in platoons with Brian Anderson (not the Brewers TV broadcaster of the same name) and Keston Hiura. They have a projected wRC+ of 98 and 105. Last year, overall, the Brewers had a 104 wRC+. But will the additions be enough to overcome the Cardinals in the division?
2023 Pittsburgh Pirates projected lineup and wRC+
- Cruz, SS (113)
- Reynolds, CF (126)
- Hayes, 3B (99)
- Choi, 1B (112)
- McCutchen, LF (106)
- Santana, DH (110)
- Suwinski, RF (106)
- Castro, 2B (92)
- Hedges, C (63)
- Team Average: 103
Note: The Pirates lineup has gotten better with the additions of Choi and Santana as well as McCutchen rejoining the team. However, Austin Hedges is one of the worst-hitting catchers in the game. He gets playing time because his exceptional defensive skills. The Pirates are still not remotely a competitive team because of their pitching and their ownership’s unwillingness to spend money and poor drafting. There are a lot of reasons why Bryan Reynolds wants to be traded and the ownership and front office are the reason behind nearly all of them.
2023 St. Louis Cardinals projected lineup and wRC+
- Edman, SS (104)
- Contreras, C (120)
- Goldschmidt, 1B (140)
- Arenado, 3B (130)
- Donovan, 2B (111)
- O’Neill, LF (118)
- Nootbaar, RF (119)
- Yepez, DH (118)
- Carlson, CF (112)
- Team Average: 119.1
Note: Far and away, the Cardinals have the best offense in the division. Their starting lineup has a projected average wRC+ of 119.1. The starting lineups of the rest of the league combined have three players with a wRC+ higher than that. Goldschmidt and Arenado are a big part of that but only Edman has a projected wRC+ lower than 111. The Cardinals won the division by seven games. With the addition of Contreras and if their outfield can stay healthy (unlike last year), they should win the division by even more than they did last year, due in large part to the strength of their lineup.