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Cardinals, Brewers or Cubs? Which NL Central team lineup is best?

By Noah Yingling

Sep 30, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) hits a one run single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 30, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) hits a one run single against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the fifth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports /
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In 2022, the National League Central division was arguably the weakest in the National League and perhaps in all of baseball. After all, four teams in MLB lost 100 or more games and two of them (the Reds and Pirates) reside in the NL Central. The division’s winner (the St. Louis Cardinals) had the second-fewest wins among a division winner (93) and the second and third-place teams (the Brewers and Cubs) had the second-worst records of teams in second and third place with 86 and 74 wins.

This offseason, though, the teams in the division have sought to somewhat change the look of their starting lineups to help change the standings. But have they changed enough to change the outlook of the division?

Let’s see how the starting lineups stack up for each NL Central team entering 2023.

Who has the best starting lineup in the National League Central in 2023?

To see who has the best lineup in the National League Central, we will use the most objective methodology: statistical projections. Of course, we cannot predict the future with a 100 percent degree of accuracy because things can definitely change between the end of the season and now (injuries, trades, etc.)

For the placement in the lineups, we are using Roster Resource (via Fangraphs) and for each player, we are using wRC+, which attempts to encapsulate each player’s total offensive production. For that wRC+ projection, we are using FanGraphs Depth Charts 2023 projections.

  1. Hoerner, 2B (104 wRC+)
  2. Swanson, SS (108)
  3. Happ, LF (113)
  4. Suzuki, RF (131)
  5. Hosmer, 1B (108)
  6. Mancini, DH (106)
  7. Bellinger, CF (98)
  8. Morel, 3B (99)
  9. Barnhart, C (76)
  • Team Average: 104.7 

Note: Of the five NL Central teams, the Cubs have added the highest amount of new names to their starting lineup. Swanson, Hosmer, Mancini, Bellinger, and Barnhart are all new to the team. If Yan Gomes plays more than Barnhart at catcher, the projected wRC+ goes up (Gomes’ projected wRC+ is 90)  but as of now, Barnhart will play against right-handed pitchers and, therefore, he’d get more playing time. In 2022, the Cubs had a 98 wRC+ as a team, which was tied for 19th.

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