4 reasons the Miami Marlins could get Manny Machado

SAN DIEGO, CA - FEBRUARY 04: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres speaks to the crowd during the San Diego Padres Fan Fest at PETCO Park on February 4, 2023 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - FEBRUARY 04: Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres speaks to the crowd during the San Diego Padres Fan Fest at PETCO Park on February 4, 2023 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)
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On the off chance the Miami Marlins do sign Manny Machado next offseason, it will be for at least one of these four reasons.

The Miami Marlins won’t be signing Manny Machado next offseason.

Then again, stranger things have probably happened in baseball. As professional sports, and life, so often tell us, anything can happen. So in the interest of due diligence, I thought it best to entertain the possibility the Miami Marlins can pull off this kind of blockbuster move.

Again, it isn’t happening. So strongly do I believe this, that I dedicated three full pages to it over the weekend. And that article didn’t even get into everyone’s favorite MLB storyline right now- the Diamond Sports Group debacle, and how the Marlins (and many other teams) are very likely not getting anywhere remotely close to the television revenue they were promised. Still, there is always the mathematical chance Marlins ownership realizes that they need. to take a page from the Padres playbook and spend in order to get fans to come out. There is also a pretty good chance the Marlins surpass expectations in 2023, in which case they could end up talking themselves into believing they actually are one player away.

If that happens, frugality and reason might go out the window for a season or two. In that event, expect the Marlins to push hard for Manny, and to be relying on at least one of these four arguments in the process:

Manny Machado is from Miami  

And we’re talking Miami, Miami here. This isn’t the pipe dream from last season where Marlins fans convinced themselves Trea Turner might want to come here because he’s from Boynton Beach. Machado was born and raised in Hialeah, and drafted out of a Miami high school. By all accounts, he grew up a Marlins fan and still loves the area. If the money is close, those are the kind of roots that actually could matter in a contract negotiation. Especially when you throw in that lack of a state income tax.

(Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
(Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /

The Miami Marlins could let Manny Machado pick his position  

Unlike some of the other teams in the running, the Miami Marlins could afford to actually give him his pick on the left side of the infield. That’s right, Machado could end up playing either third base or shortstop in Miami.

Such is the benefit of doing nothing this offseason but signing second basemen.

There’s no incumbent star that would be in the way at either spot on the MLB roster. Whoever is retained for 2024 out of Miami’s glut of infielders all have a bit of a super utility feel to them. They can be moved to other positions as needed. As for up and coming talent in the minors, there is no one to worry about blocking at third. Top offensive prospect Jacob Berry is a very, very bat first player, and almost a lock for becoming a permanent DH. The shortstop talent is more promising, but it also isn’t Machado.

If Machado fancies making another run at playing short, Miami can offer him that chance. That’s something few other contenders would be in a position to easily do.

The Marlins can make him their sole target 

Lastly, and most importantly, the Miami Marlins can ignore every other prize of the 2023-2024 free agent market.

If you squint, I suppose you could see a universe in which the Marlins make Machado an offer close to the $300 million range he’ll be seeking. But there’s not a realm in the multiverse where the Marlins will offer Shohei Ohtani the $400 to $500 million it will take to get him to sign the dotted line. Speaking of excellent pitchers, that’s exactly what the rest of the prizes on the market are. The Marlins have plenty of above average pitching talent already, with more in the minors.

Which means they can go all out on Machado from day one. He’d be Miami’s entire offseason, whereas most of the other teams gunning for him might have divided attention. That kind of aggressive courtship could make the difference.

Of course, there is really only one scenario where Machado ever wears a Marlins uniform…

(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

What if the San Diego Padres’ pitching is terrible?

On paper, the San Diego Padres are unquestionably a more complete team than the Miami Marlins heading into 2023.

That being said, if the Padres have a weak spot, it’s their starting pitching. What if it’s terrible?

What if Blake Snell’s traditional injury luck continues? What if Yu Darvish flip flops back to being too inconsistent for an ace, and some of San Diego’s young arms aren’t as ready for the majors as they hope?

If that happens, and as a result the Padres are either out of it already or in need of pitching help to make a run … what if they just trade Machado this season? 

That’s where the Miami Marlins can pounce. For a half-season rental, this could end up being similar to the Luis Arraez trade. One MLB ready pitcher and a couple of prospects, only one of which you’d heard of before the day it happens, in exchange for Machado. Maybe even a true one for one swap, given the lack of control coming back.

Understandably, this is extremely unlikely. The Padres are great, fresh off a deep playoff run, and made their roster better. They’re the toast of baseball when it comes to doing all they can to win. Even if San Diego does struggle to get traction early, the most likely route for them to go is to blow up what is left of their farm to pry away a starting pitcher, rather than take any MLB talent away from the clubhouse.

But that Padres lineup is stacked. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis are better players. Xander Bogaerts is making a lot of money. Their pitching is thin after Darvish and Joe Musgrove, to the point that they might be a Diamondbacks’ rookie breakout away from only having the third best starting rotation in their own division.

At some point they are probably going to need cheaper talent. They will absolutely need better pitching.

If that moment is this July, there isn’t a team in baseball better positioned than the Miami Marlins to  deal away a good starting pitcher without overly compromising their own playoff chances.

If it’s a question of a long-term signing, any of the above arguments can easily be trumped by another ballclub with deeper pockets. If it’s just a question of which team in MLB Manny Machado is most likely to play for in 2023 other than the Padres?

Next. The flip side: Why Marlins won't get Machado. dark

The only right answer is the Marlins.

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