What if the San Diego Padres’ pitching is terrible?
On paper, the San Diego Padres are unquestionably a more complete team than the Miami Marlins heading into 2023.
That being said, if the Padres have a weak spot, it’s their starting pitching. What if it’s terrible?
What if Blake Snell’s traditional injury luck continues? What if Yu Darvish flip flops back to being too inconsistent for an ace, and some of San Diego’s young arms aren’t as ready for the majors as they hope?
If that happens, and as a result the Padres are either out of it already or in need of pitching help to make a run … what if they just trade Machado this season?
That’s where the Miami Marlins can pounce. For a half-season rental, this could end up being similar to the Luis Arraez trade. One MLB ready pitcher and a couple of prospects, only one of which you’d heard of before the day it happens, in exchange for Machado. Maybe even a true one for one swap, given the lack of control coming back.
Understandably, this is extremely unlikely. The Padres are great, fresh off a deep playoff run, and made their roster better. They’re the toast of baseball when it comes to doing all they can to win. Even if San Diego does struggle to get traction early, the most likely route for them to go is to blow up what is left of their farm to pry away a starting pitcher, rather than take any MLB talent away from the clubhouse.
But that Padres lineup is stacked. Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis are better players. Xander Bogaerts is making a lot of money. Their pitching is thin after Darvish and Joe Musgrove, to the point that they might be a Diamondbacks’ rookie breakout away from only having the third best starting rotation in their own division.
At some point they are probably going to need cheaper talent. They will absolutely need better pitching.
If that moment is this July, there isn’t a team in baseball better positioned than the Miami Marlins to deal away a good starting pitcher without overly compromising their own playoff chances.
If it’s a question of a long-term signing, any of the above arguments can easily be trumped by another ballclub with deeper pockets. If it’s just a question of which team in MLB Manny Machado is most likely to play for in 2023 other than the Padres?
The only right answer is the Marlins.