Houston Astros: Predicting the answer to 3 major roster questions

Nov 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; The Astros mascot runs the field as as the Houston Astros celebrate winning the World Series after their victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in game six of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; The Astros mascot runs the field as as the Houston Astros celebrate winning the World Series after their victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in game six of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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Like all MLB teams, the Houston Astros must answer some questions regarding the construction of their roster before the start of the season.

Coming off their second World Series championship in five years, the Houston Astros certainly arrived to camp in high spirits. Last September, the Astros completed a dominant postseason run in which they swept the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees before winning the Fall Classic in six games over the Philadelphia Phillies.

While the nucleus of the team remains largely intact (with Justin Verlander’s departure as the lone exception), there is plenty of reason for optimism for the upcoming season. However, like all teams, there are plenty of storylines to watch and questions to answer as teams begin their Spring Training.

Diving into the 3 major roster questions for the Houston Astros heading into spring training games

Who will be the backup catcher?

It’s quite clear that the Houston Astros have a strong appreciation for Martin Maldonaldo and his ability to work with their staff. Last trade deadline, a deal was in place to send starting pitcher Jose Urquidy to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for All-Star catcher, Wilson Contreras. The deal fell through when Astros owner, Jim Crane, sided with Dusty Baker. Baker believedContreras would not have enough time to learn the pitching staff, and preferred Maldonado’s established rapport with the Houston pitchers.

All this is to say that it seems the Astros have a lot of confidence in Maldonado heading into the 2023 season. A bigger question revolves around who will be supporting Maldonado through a 162-game season. Even with a remarkably healthy Maldonado, as has been the case the last couple of years, a backup catcher will likely still receive 40-ish starts throughout the season.

There seem to be two contenders heading into Spring Training for the backup catcher position: Yainer Diaz and Korey Lee. Diaz made himself known to the more average Astros fan last season as he partook in the MLB Futures game over All-Star game weekend. According to MLB.com, Diaz is the #3 prospect in the Astros’ system. Diaz mashed in both Double-A and Triple-A last year. In 48 Triple-A games, Diaz slashed .294/.343/.587. While Diaz sports a prolific bat, Diaz isn’t the strongest defensive catcher in the world. The Astros have even tried him at first base and have experimented with him in left field.

Alternatively, Korey Lee is a surer defender, at least when it comes down to limiting the stolen base. MLB.com graded Lee’s arm a “70” (which is regarded as significantly above average) in their most recent Astros prospect rankings. He was a first round pick of the Astros back in 2019. While Lee hasn’t flashed the same potential with the bat in comparison to Diaz, Lee has an impressive amount of power, especially for a catcher. Across 104 Triple-A games Lee launched 25 home runs.

If these two were battling for a starting position, I think the Astros would side with Lee, the stronger defensive catcher. However, in a backup role, I believe the Astros will be more willing to gamble on offensive upside. Diaz also has some experience at first base, which can be valuable given the departures of both Yuli Gurriel and Aledmys Diaz on the infield.

My prediction: Diaz

Sep 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 5, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) delivers a pitch against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports /

Who will be the fifth starter to start the year?

As of now, the Astros rotation consists of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., and Luis Garcia. Battling out for the final spot are Jose Urquidy and prized top prospect Hunter Brown. Urquidy is a consistent strike-thrower and innings-eater. Across 164.1 innings last year, Urquidy only walked 2.1 batteers per 9 innings. However, more underlying metrics are not as strong. Urquidy had an xERA of 4.56 and was in the 16th percentile in Barrel %, a result of his unspectacular “stuff.”

Hunter Brown was electrifying across his big league debut, bringing hope that the Astros’ #1 prospect might one day be the ace of this staff. Brown was so strong across the stretch that he appeared in three playoff games, where he didn’t allow a run. Across 20.1 innings in the regular season, Brown had a sub-one ERA and a 1.98 FIP.

My prediction: Jose Urquidy

Who wouldn’t want to see Hunter Brown take a start every fifth day? There is no doubt in my mind that Hunter Brown is the better and more promising starting pitcher. While Brown has been healthy, I think the Astros will and should proceed with caution. Starting in the bullpen will preserve Brown’s innings throughout the course of a 162-game season. Additionally, Urquidy has very little experience in an MLB bullpen, an area in which Brown has already proven to excel. There will inevitably come a time in the season when a starter is hurt or underperforming. When that time comes, Brown will enter seamlessly into the starting rotation and won’t look back.

Oct 28, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel (10) in action during game one between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 28, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Yuli Gurriel (10) in action during game one between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports /

Will there be any more additions to the roster?

Blake Taylor saw some meaningful innings as a left-handed reliever before he went down with an injury last year. Other than Taylor and Astros legend, Tony Sipp (2014-2018), the Astros have mostly operated without a major left-handed relief pitcher. Will Smith was acquired in a trade from the Braves last season, but did not see work in the postseason, and will likely not be back with the team. While many teams value having a couple of lefties to match-up against opposing teams’ lefty batters, the Astros have been able to get lefties out without deploying left-handed arms.

I really hope the Astros re-sign fan favorite, Yuli Gurriel. After a poor regular season, Gurriel slashed .347/.360/.490 across the entirety of the 2022 postseason run. While it’s difficult to quantify the negative impact of losing a decorated and veteran leader, I hope the Astros don’t put such a loss to the test. There is certainly room for an experienced, productive bat on the bench. Whether Gurriel wants to run it back, without being a part of the everyday lineup, is the real question. With Gurriel still available on the market, there is some hope that Gurriel has not been offered the money or playing time that he desires and will therefore find himself in an Astros uniform again soon.

My prediction: La Pina (Yuli Gurriel)

Comment down below what you think!

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