MLB division previews: AL Central
AL Central preview: 4. Detroit Tigers
By all accounts, last year was an unmitigated disaster for Detroit. After investing more than $100 million in free agency, Detroit went from a 77-85 record in 2021 to 66-95 in 2022. Detroit did virtually nothing to improve a lineup that finished dead last in runs per game at 3.44.
It’ll be up to Javy Baez to bounce back from one of the worst seasons of his career, finishing with a 90 wRC+* last season. In fact, just about everyone in this lineup will have to bounce back. It starts with former number one overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who was clearly not ready for the big leagues. The 23-year-old posted a brutal stat line, batting .200 and hitting just eight home runs. Riley Greene, another highly touted prospect, was arguably the one bright spot in the lineup last season. In 418 at-bats, Greene finished with a 98 wRC+*, while showcasing elite defense in center field. It’s crucial that Greene takes another big step this year, with Detroit desperately in need of a core to build around. Austin Meadows and Jonathan Schoop are two quality and reliable MLB players who were anything but that last season. Meadows was hurt most the season, and Schoop had the worst statistical season of his career. The two while have to turn it around, as they will be relied upon for heavy production in this weak lineup. Newcomers Matt Vierling and Nick Maton were acquired in the Gregory Soto trade; it’s looking as if both will immediately be plugged into this lineup. Vierling provides an average bat with incredible defensive versatility, while Maton looked very promising in his second year with the Phillies. While this lineup is still pretty ugly, at least Tigers fans will be able to enjoy future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera play in navy blue for potentially his last season.
The rotation remains full of question marks. Eduardo Rodriguez was brought in to be the ace of this staff, signing a five-year, $77 million deal last offseason. After just eight starts, Rodriguez left the team for personal reasons. He returned in late August, finishing the season with a 4.02 ERA. Casey Mize pitched just 10 innings before being shut down for Tommy John surgery. It’s unclear when he will return, but there’s no denying that the former number one pick is quite injury-prone. Spencer Turnbull and Tarik Skubal are the highlights of this rotation, both of whom are likely to start the season on the IL. Turnbull is coming off Tommy John in 2020, where he posted a strong 2.88 ERA in nine starts before surgery. Skubal broke out last season, finishing with a 3.52 ERA over 117 innings before being shut down for flexor tendon surgery. At 26, Skubal is far and away the most valuable young pitcher on this staff. Matt Manning is another strong young arm to look out for on this staff. The 25-year-old had a similar 3.43 ERA in 12 starts before being forearm issues. Aside from injuries, both Skubal and Manning have shown flashes of elite potential in their young big league careers. Veterans Matt Boyd and Michael Lorenzen will join the rotation as strong depth pieces, both on one-year deals with the ability to be dealt at the trade deadline. Depth in a starting rotation is always great, but it’s not very meaningful when a team lacks top tier starting pitching. While Detroit has potential elite starters, nothing yet has been consistently proven.
The bullpen, the strength of Detroit last year, has lost its best piece, trading away lefty closer Gregory Soto. With Andrew Chafin, Soto, and Michael Fulmer all gone, it’s hard to know what to expect from this group.
Detroit is an awfully tough spot right now, but honestly can things get much worse than last season?
* wRC+ is an advanced offensive metric that measures offensive production. It is measured on a 100 point scale, with 100 being the league average. Anything above or below 100 is above or below average.
AL Central preview: 3. Chicago White Sox
2022 was a year plagued with injuries, inconsistencies, and underperformance from the White Sox. Chicago must turn around all of these struggles if they wish to contend, and they’ll have to do it without their franchise player Jose Abreu, who signed with Houston in the offseason. It’s a given fact that Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, and Yasmani Grandal are all really solid MLB players. While this is true, they all have problems staying healthy. Why expect that to change this year? Abreu was the sole, consistent elite producer in this lineup, and now he is gone. The top of the order will be highlighted by shortstop Tim Anderson and new free agent acquisition Andrew Benintendi, the White Sox marquee signing over the offseason. While it’s clear Benintendi is an excellent contact hitter, it’s no secret his power numbers are lacking. Over his entire career, Benintendi has had just one season where he’s hit 20 homers (2017). I’m just not sure if Benintendi provides enough consistent offensive production to be earning $75 million over the next five years. Andrew Vaughn and Gavin Sheets will also have to step up. The two young prospects have meshed nicely into big league action, proving they can produce at a high level with solid offensive numbers. Overall, it’s just hard to trust a lineup with so many injury-prone pieces. Sure, if this lineup can stay healthy I think they could potentially compete for the division. But will it stay healthy? Based on past seasons, the answer would be no.
If Chicago wishes to contend, the starting rotation must be a strength for this team. Dylan Cease is now a proven elite starter after his 2022 season, finishing second in AL Cy Young voting. Cease will look to continue his dominance and lead a rotation that is full of question marks. Lance Lynn missed the first few weeks of last season and didn’t look the same. He lost a full mph on his fastball (94-93) and, in turn, his arsenal was much more ineffective. Now 35, I highly doubt we will see the Cy Young contending version of Lynn we saw in prior years. It’s up to Michael Kopech to fill this void, who is fully capable of becoming a top three starter on a playoff team. Kopech achieved career numbers while pitching a career-high of 119 innings, proving he can be successful with a starter’s workload. It was a disappointing year for Lucas Giolito, whose ERA rose almost a full point and half last season. Similar to Lynn, Giolito’s fastball velocity dropped 1.3 MPH (94-92.7), in turn bringing down the effectiveness of his whole arsenal. Along with Lynn, the two must bounce back for this rotation to be dominant. The back-end of the rotation remains in question, with Mike Clevinger currently under investigation for alleged domestic violence and child abuse. If Clevinger is unable to pitch, it’s possible righty Reynaldo Lopez could take his place. Lopez has starting experience, and posted a solid 2.72 ERA as a reliever last year. Aside from Lopez, the team is virtually devoid of starting pitching depth. This is a huge problem, considering Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech, and Mike Clevinger all missed time due to arm problems last season.
The bullpen is above-average, highlighted with quality relievers such as Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Jake Diekman and Aaron Bummer. However, their pen will be missing its most valuable piece, closer Liam Hendriks, who was recently diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. We wish the best for Hendriks in his recovery, who is truly an electrifying player and competitor in our game. It’s really pretty simple.
Last year, Chicago was a .500 team and couldn’t stay healthy. The same exact narrative bodes for this year. This is a team that struggles to stay healthy and no longer has their best player in Jose Abreu. It’s hard to see this working out well.
AL Central preview: 2. Cleveland Guardians
Defying all expectations last year, the Guardians won their first division title since 2018 while also achieving a commendable postseason run. While some can argue they benefited from awful divisional counterparts, there’s no doubt the front office has put together a solid roster.
It all starts with the starting rotation, which has established itself with an elite top three that competed well in October. Shane Bieber will look to capture his second Cy Young Award, coming off another stellar season. Despite losing about 1.5 mph on his fastball velocity, Bieber still dominated, posting a 2.88 ERA over 200 innings. Bieber’s slider had a pitch value of 15.8 runs above average, leading all MLB starters. Triston McKenzie had his best season last year, lowering his ERA a full two points (2.95) while achieving a career-high in innings pitched. Is it safe to say the Guardians won the Mike Clevinger trade? Along with Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill was another valuable player the Guardians acquired in the Clevinger deal, making it even more gruesome for Padres fans to think about. The right-handed starter completed his second straight regular season with a sub 3.40 ERA. Despite the strong regular season, Quantrill struggled in the postseason, finishing with a 5.40 ERA in two playoff starts. While Cleveland has the starting trio in the division, the bottom half of the rotation remains a big question mark. Both Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac posted 4.30+ ERAs last year, with Civale struggling in his lone playoff start. Though this is a huge red flag, we do have to consider who else could potentially be in the picture for this rotation. It’s a given fact that Cleveland is incredibly good at manufacturing elite starting pitchers. Let’s remember this is a team that once had Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco as part of the same staff. While none of these pitchers still remain, Cleveland still has a strong and youthful rotation. It’s clear this organization can consistently cultivate quality starting pitching. It will be foolish to assume we won’t see some form of further development in the starting rotation this year.
As for the bullpen, it comes in as one of the league’s best, led by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. During the Guardians postseason run, the bullpen eclipsed an 1.08 ERA, finishing third amongst all postseason teams. It wasn’t Clase who purely dominated. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Eli Morgan, and Enyel De Los Santos all proved they were capable of high leverage postseason situations. This talented group will play a key part in helping Cleveland defend their division title.
The bulk of the lineup’s production hinges on Jose Ramirez, arguably the most underrated player in the game. Ramirez is coming off another monster season posting a 139 wRC+, virtually carrying the offense through the regular and postseason. The Guardians deserve their due credit for patching up some holes, as they improved at the catching and first base by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino during the offseason. Bell and Zunino are both tenured veterans who will bring power and experience to this rather young lineup. Even with these strong additions, I still have my doubts. Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario, and Josh Naylor all had career years last season. In addition, Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzales had very impressive rookie seasons. While I’m not saying all of these players will regress, I do have a hard time believing they can all repeat such incredible performances.
The lineup is so dependent on the production of Ramirez. If Ramirez goes down or slumps, the offensive production of this team is in major jeopardy. For many players in this lineup, it’s time to establish consistency and prove they can repeat career-high performances we saw last season. If not, Cleveland may not be able to defend their division title.
AL Central preview: 1. Minnesota Twins
After a very strong showing this offseason, Minnesota is primed to bring home its third division title in five years. Despite trading away AL batting champ Luis Arraez, the Twins still boast the best lineup in this division. It’s a lineup that’s led by two perennial MVP candidates in Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler will join Buxton in the outfield, both looking to bounce back from statistically down years. Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers will rotate behind the dish, with Vazquez signing a three-year deal over the offseason. After a disappointing year from Gary Sanchez, Vazquez will look to bring stability to the catching position. With Arraez traded, Jorge Polanco will move to second, and 24-year-old Jose Miranda will take over at third. Miranda had a strong rookie campaign last year, batting .268 with 15 homers in his first year. Former number one overall pick Royce Lewis is another intruiging young piece. The 23-year-old was outstanding for a short period of time before requiring season-ending knee surgery. If Lewis can return to elite form at the big league level, Minnesota easily lock up this division title. The front office has done a great job acquiring depth over the past few offseasons. As of now, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, Nick Gordon, Michael A. Taylor and Trevor Larnach are all MLB-quality players who are currently on Minnesota’s bench. If players slump, Minnesota has plenty of replacements to sustain strong offensive production.
While the starting rotation lacks a true frontline ace, it’s very deep with above-average starters who could pitch on a playoff teams. Veteran Sonny Gray will likely get the ball on Opening Day, and will likely anchor this deep rotation. Newly acquired Pablo Lopez certainly has the ability to climb in to the ace role. With arguably one of the best changeups in the league, we saw utter dominance from Lopez at the beginning of last season. Over the first two months of the season, Lopez posted a 1.83, finding himself neck and neck in Cy Young contention with his teammate Sandy Alcantara. Lopez slowly tailed off during the rest of the regular season, finishing with a 3.75 ERA. The 26-year-old still has room for growth, and will look to consistently establish his dominance in his new home of Minnesota. It looked as if Joe Ryan could potentially bring home AL ROY, also dominating early in the season. It’s been rumored that Ryan has developed a splitter and slider over the offseason, hoping to develop his arsenal a bit deeper. While Tyler Mahle was elite with the Reds, he failed to carry this over to Minnesota after being traded at the deadline. While in Minnesota, Mahle lost fastball velocity and landed on the IL. His health is still in question coming into spring training. Mahle is just like the previous three starters we mentioned; he’s an above-average starter who looks like an ace at times but can never consistently prove it. The question is can one of these four starters go beyond “above average.” Former Dodger Kenta Maeda rounds out the group. He failed to pitch a single inning last season, but is expected to be ready by Opening Day, hoping to return to the somewhat elite version of himself that he once used to be.
The bullpen is a strength of this team, highlighted by flame-throwing righties Jorge Lopez and Jhoan Duran. Coming off great seasons, both are capable of a closing role and pitching in high-leverage situations.
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For Minnesota, I think most of their division title chances fall on the starting rotation. If Mahle, Gray, Lopez, or Joe Ryan can emerge as an ace, I think it’s a very strong possibility the Twins can win the AL Central. Overall, this is a very deep team that we should expect to see in the playoff mix.