AL Central preview: 2. Cleveland Guardians
Defying all expectations last year, the Guardians won their first division title since 2018 while also achieving a commendable postseason run. While some can argue they benefited from awful divisional counterparts, there’s no doubt the front office has put together a solid roster.
It all starts with the starting rotation, which has established itself with an elite top three that competed well in October. Shane Bieber will look to capture his second Cy Young Award, coming off another stellar season. Despite losing about 1.5 mph on his fastball velocity, Bieber still dominated, posting a 2.88 ERA over 200 innings. Bieber’s slider had a pitch value of 15.8 runs above average, leading all MLB starters. Triston McKenzie had his best season last year, lowering his ERA a full two points (2.95) while achieving a career-high in innings pitched. Is it safe to say the Guardians won the Mike Clevinger trade? Along with Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill was another valuable player the Guardians acquired in the Clevinger deal, making it even more gruesome for Padres fans to think about. The right-handed starter completed his second straight regular season with a sub 3.40 ERA. Despite the strong regular season, Quantrill struggled in the postseason, finishing with a 5.40 ERA in two playoff starts. While Cleveland has the starting trio in the division, the bottom half of the rotation remains a big question mark. Both Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac posted 4.30+ ERAs last year, with Civale struggling in his lone playoff start. Though this is a huge red flag, we do have to consider who else could potentially be in the picture for this rotation. It’s a given fact that Cleveland is incredibly good at manufacturing elite starting pitchers. Let’s remember this is a team that once had Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger, Trevor Bauer and Carlos Carrasco as part of the same staff. While none of these pitchers still remain, Cleveland still has a strong and youthful rotation. It’s clear this organization can consistently cultivate quality starting pitching. It will be foolish to assume we won’t see some form of further development in the starting rotation this year.
As for the bullpen, it comes in as one of the league’s best, led by All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase. During the Guardians postseason run, the bullpen eclipsed an 1.08 ERA, finishing third amongst all postseason teams. It wasn’t Clase who purely dominated. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Eli Morgan, and Enyel De Los Santos all proved they were capable of high leverage postseason situations. This talented group will play a key part in helping Cleveland defend their division title.
The bulk of the lineup’s production hinges on Jose Ramirez, arguably the most underrated player in the game. Ramirez is coming off another monster season posting a 139 wRC+, virtually carrying the offense through the regular and postseason. The Guardians deserve their due credit for patching up some holes, as they improved at the catching and first base by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino during the offseason. Bell and Zunino are both tenured veterans who will bring power and experience to this rather young lineup. Even with these strong additions, I still have my doubts. Andrés Giménez, Amed Rosario, and Josh Naylor all had career years last season. In addition, Steven Kwan and Oscar Gonzales had very impressive rookie seasons. While I’m not saying all of these players will regress, I do have a hard time believing they can all repeat such incredible performances.
The lineup is so dependent on the production of Ramirez. If Ramirez goes down or slumps, the offensive production of this team is in major jeopardy. For many players in this lineup, it’s time to establish consistency and prove they can repeat career-high performances we saw last season. If not, Cleveland may not be able to defend their division title.