Most disappointing offseason: The St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals are coming into the MLB season on high hopes. This offseason, they acquired All-Star Wilson Contreras, but will that be enough?

I can see people heading to the comments just off the title of this article alone.

What’s not to like about the St. Louis Cardinals’ offseason?

If you look at the offseason in a vacuum, you’d likely be fairly impressed. A division-winning team adds arguably a top-5 catcher, replacing a massive offensive whole, as was the catching situation for the Cardinals last season. Willson Contreras is a consistent masher who hasn’t posted a wRC+ below 100 in his seven seasons of big league ball. A 100 represents a league-average hitter. Not only has Contreras been an above-average hitter throughout the entirety of his baseball career, but he’s done it at the catching position, the weakest offensive position in baseball, and he’s coming off his best offensive year. Contreras also has one of the game’s strongest arms and is one of the best in baseball at limiting the run game.

Along with bringing in Contreras, the Cardinals locked up Nolan Arenado for five more years, as the star third basemen opted into the remainder of his $144 million. Not a bad deal for a top-25 player in the game.

Instead of what the St. Louis Cardinals did do this offseason, the focus should be on what they didn’t do. There wasn’t much to do on the position-player side of things. The Cardinals fixed their biggest offensive hole by bringing in Contreras, and the rest of the diamond is littered with above-average big leaguers. The corner infield spots are occupied by the best corner infield tandem in baseball, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. Tommy Edman adds to a slick fielding infield. An outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, and Dylan Carlson provides the Cardinals with youth and offensive upside.

The rotation is where the problem lies. Right now, FanGraphs projects the starting rotation to consist of Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, and Steven Matz. Adam Wainwright is solid, I guess, although, at this stage in his career, he is far from an ace. Last year Wainwright had a 3.71 ERA but had an xERA over 4.50, signaling he could be due for some regression, especially entering his age-41 season.

Mikolas and Montgomery were both solid last year, but both don’t have long track records of excellence or incredibly high upside.

It’s hard to have much faith in Flaherty heading into the season. Flaherty has been hampered by injuries and hasn’t pitched more than 80 innings since his dominant 2019 season. When on the mound, Flaherty has not been as electrifying as he once was. In comparison to his 2019 season, Flaherty’s strikeout rate has dropped by over 10% (from 30% to 19.8%). What stands out the most is the ineffectiveness of his fastball. What was once his most dominant pitch was his most ineffective last year. In 2019, his fastball had a -22 run value. That spiked to +8 this year. In other terms, batters hit .194 with a .343 slug off the fastball in 2019. Last year, batters hit .319 and slugged .594 off the same pitch. Flaherty hasn’t looked like an ace in some time, and I’m worried he won’t return to his pre-injury form.

The rotation is projected to round out with Steven Matz, who offers limited upside. Last year Matz’s ERA was over five.

Waiting in the wings is highly regarded prospect, Matthew Liberatore. However, in limited time last year, Liberatore had a FIP over five and an ERA just shy of six.

The rotation isn’t horrible, and it might be enough to get the Cardinals into the playoffs. But it might not. I think there’s an argument that Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta of the Brewers’ rotation are all better than anyone in St. Louis’ rotation. Once in the playoffs, the rotations of Atlanta, New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles likely await. All are significantly stronger in a playoff setting than the Cardinals, because of their top-end starters.

Imagine how much better this rotation would look with Carlos Rodon or even Pablo Lopez in it. However, it seems that the St. Louis Cardinals are unwilling to dish out lucrative long-term contracts or part with any of their top prospects to make a trade for a top-flight starter. That’s too bad because it seems the Cardinals are a strong starter away from serious contention.

Did the Colorado Rockies have a disappointing offseason? Sure. But it’s hard to be too disappointed in a team that doesn’t have much in terms of a competitive roster. With a championship-level roster that isn’t getting any younger, it feels as if the St. Louis Cardinals are blowing their chance of expanding their championship window. So, add starting pitching. Please.