1 bold prediction for each National League Central team in 2023
In 2022, the National League Central was one of the weakest divisions in MLB. Two of the four 100-loss teams resided in the NL Central.
Largely, the teams remain unchanged but, after all, things do change a lot from season to season, especially when you’re playing 162 games.
Here is one bold prediction for each National League Central team for the 2023 season
Cincinnati Reds: They will have multiple All-Star representatives
The Cincinnati Reds were not a good team in 2022 and they won’t be in 2023 … but they do have some good players.
Jonathan India is just one year removed from winning the NL Rookie of the Year. Joey Votto had 36 home runs and 99 RBI just a year ago. Tyler Stephenson is one of the best offensive catchers in the sport. Reds ace Hunter Greene was MLB.com’s #22 prospect entering last season.
All four of them had significant injuries in 2022 as none of the former three played in more than 103 games. Greene missed more than a month due to a shoulder injury.
If all are healthy, the Reds could easily have two of them make the All-Star Game in Seattle if not more, despite being a team that will likely lose more than 90 games in 2023.
Chicago Cubs: They will finish the season around .500
In 2022, the Chicago Cubs went 74-88, which was still good enough for third place in the NL Central.
However, they have the most improved lineup in the NL Central and one of the most improved lineups in the sport. They added shortstop Dansby Swanson, first baseman Eric Hosmer, DH Trey Mancini, outfielder Cody Bellinger, and catcher Tucker Barnhart. They also shored up the backend of their bullpen with Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.
The thing that will hold them back is their starting rotation. Outside of Marcus Stroman, the Cubs have a bunch of fourth and fifth starters. New acquisition Jameson Taillon is their second starter. In each of the last two seasons, he has had an ERA+ of 100, which is quite literally a league-average pitcher. He should be a fourth starter on a playoff team, not a number two.
Most sportsbooks have their over/under at or around 76.5. Our bold prediction is that they will win 80 games, which would be a six-game improvement over 2022.
Milwaukee Brewers: William Contreras will lead the team in home runs
The Milwaukee Brewers missed the postseason entirely in 2022 after they were in first place on August 5. Part of this was because of missteps by the front office at the trade deadline but the offense really struggled down the stretch. William Contreras should help them out, especially in the power department.
He only played in 97 games in the majors with the Braves last season but he still had 20 home runs. In 2022, Willy Adames and Rowdy Tellez had 31 and 35 home runs. They could each easily eclipse 30+ home runs again but Contreras could very well do that too.
The problem for them will be if the rest of the offense can deliver. That largely lies on whether or not Christian Yelich is the Yelich of 2018 and 2019.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes will win the NL Gold Glove Award for 3B
In the National League, St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado has won the Gold Glove Award for 10 straight seasons, or all 10 seasons that he has played in the major leagues. However, Ke’Bryan Hayes might even better than Arenado at third base and Arenado is, arguably, the best fielding third baseman ever.
In 2022, Hayes had 24 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 133 games at third base. Arenado had 19 DRS in 131 games. In 2021, Hayes had 16 DRS in just 95 games. Arenado had 6 DRS in 155 games. Hayes also had a higher fielding percentage, more Outs Above Average, or OAA (31 to 25), and a higher Runs Above Average saved, or RAA (23 to 19).
Arenado only has an edge in UZR statistically. He has a big edge in the two areas that managers and coaches (they are the ones who vote on it) already know: he’s been very good for a long time and he’s on a better team.
But 2023 might be the year that Hayes turns the tables on Arenado.
St. Louis Cardinals: They win 100+ games and win the NL Central by 10+ games
Even if Arenado doesn’t win a Gold Glove Award, the St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central and it’s not even close. When they are healthy, every single player in their starting lineup is at least a league-average hitter.
If Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz are healthy in their rotation, they have five above-average starting pitchers. As with most teams, the bullpen is their weakness on paper but it is still not bad by any stretch.
The next best team in the division is the Brewers but (outside of Devin Williams), their bullpen is worse. The top of their rotation is better but after Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, the Cardinals have the advantage. Offensively, the Brewers aren’t even in the same league as the Cardinals. If you go position by position, the Brewers have the edge in two or three areas, max.
The biggest problem for the Cardinals will be their health. They won 93 games in 2022 and if Flaherty, Matz, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and others who were injured are healthy in 2023, the Cardinals will win 100+ games and win the Central by at least 10 games.