Pittsburgh Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes will win the NL Gold Glove Award for 3B
In the National League, St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado has won the Gold Glove Award for 10 straight seasons, or all 10 seasons that he has played in the major leagues. However, Ke’Bryan Hayes might even better than Arenado at third base and Arenado is, arguably, the best fielding third baseman ever.
In 2022, Hayes had 24 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 133 games at third base. Arenado had 19 DRS in 131 games. In 2021, Hayes had 16 DRS in just 95 games. Arenado had 6 DRS in 155 games. Hayes also had a higher fielding percentage, more Outs Above Average, or OAA (31 to 25), and a higher Runs Above Average saved, or RAA (23 to 19).
Arenado only has an edge in UZR statistically. He has a big edge in the two areas that managers and coaches (they are the ones who vote on it) already know: he’s been very good for a long time and he’s on a better team.
But 2023 might be the year that Hayes turns the tables on Arenado.
St. Louis Cardinals: They win 100+ games and win the NL Central by 10+ games
Even if Arenado doesn’t win a Gold Glove Award, the St. Louis Cardinals are the best team in the NL Central and it’s not even close. When they are healthy, every single player in their starting lineup is at least a league-average hitter.
If Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz are healthy in their rotation, they have five above-average starting pitchers. As with most teams, the bullpen is their weakness on paper but it is still not bad by any stretch.
The next best team in the division is the Brewers but (outside of Devin Williams), their bullpen is worse. The top of their rotation is better but after Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, the Cardinals have the advantage. Offensively, the Brewers aren’t even in the same league as the Cardinals. If you go position by position, the Brewers have the edge in two or three areas, max.
The biggest problem for the Cardinals will be their health. They won 93 games in 2022 and if Flaherty, Matz, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and others who were injured are healthy in 2023, the Cardinals will win 100+ games and win the Central by at least 10 games.