1 bold prediction for each National League West team in 2023
Colorado Rockies: Daniel Bard gets traded at the deadline
Remember when the Rockies made the head-scratching decision to give their closer Daniel Bard a two-year extension last summer? Yeah, we didn’t understand it either.
Colorado is going nowhere fast, and they’ll easily be the worst team in the National League West in 2023. So why bother rostering a good closer like Bard at this point? His contract at $19 million over two years is a remarkable bargain given the rate at which closers are earning money these days. Think of all the suitors that could line up to acquire him, and the return the Rockies could net for Bard.
This seems like a no-brainer for all parties. The question is whether the Rockies will absorb the hit to their ego. And given the Monforts who own the team, that’s far from a sure thing.
Los Angeles Dodgers: J.D. Martinez will be an X-factor in 2023
The Dodgers are never out of the conversation, and nor should they be: their track record over the last decade speaks for itself. Los Angeles didn’t exactly do much to improve last year’s squad, but when last year’s squad won a league-high 111 games, well … that also speaks for itself.
Besides being a good team every year, the Dodgers also tend to get the most out of their players, and that won’t be any different this year. Los Angeles saw Trea Turner and Justin Turner depart in free agency this winter, creating two holes in their lineup behind Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. But never fear, because they signed J.D. Martinez to a one-year deal for the 2023 season. And betting on a resurgence from the veteran slugger would be a smart play.
FanGraphs projects that Martinez will hit 22 home runs in 2023 with a 115 wRC (weighted runs created-plus), which should more than help Los Angeles keep the line moving behind their big boppers. Martinez won’t replace Trea Turner’s speed, but he’ll easily replace Justin Turner’s pop and be a good fix for this lineup at a lesser cost.
San Diego Padres: Their rotation struggles more than we expect
It’s hard not to love what the San Diego Padres are doing. They’ve assembled a super team of MLB stars not dissimilar to what we see in the NBA these days. And they’re spending tons of money to do it.
A lineup that features Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Juan Soto and later Fernando Tatis Jr., along with a stable of solid contributors like Jake Cronenworth, Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter and Ha-seong Kim should look dominant in 2023. But one area of concern for the Padres in 2023? Their rotation.
It’s insane to think that a rotation headlined by co-aces Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove might struggle, but behind those two are Blake Snell (solid but inconsistent at times), Michael Wacha (league average at best) and Nick Martinez (also about league average). Seth Lugo slots as their depth starter, but he was primarily a reliever with the New York Mets, so his ability to be a reliable starter is quite unknown.
Overall? This is not a great group. Darvish hasn’t always pitched like an ace in recent years (in 2021, he had a 4.22 ERA, for example) leaving the 30-year-old Musgrove as the true budding talent on this staff. Fortunately for San Diego, their lineup is formidable enough to bandage over this issue.
San Francisco Giants: Closer to a fourth-place team than a third-place team
The San Francisco Giants lost out on both Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa in drawn out sagas this winter. Their consolation prizes? Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Not exactly a dream team.
San Francisco is the definition of middle of the pack. They’re probably an 80- to 83-win team in 2023, much like they were in 2022 when they finished at an even 81-81. The Giants didn’t make substantial improvements to their roster, while also losing Carlos Rodon to the Yankees. Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea are fine, but Rodon is better than both. After Logan Webb, the Giants just have a bunch of solid but unspectacular veterans.
Teams that are built this way only have so much upside, and playing it safe rather than rolling the dice like, say, the Diamondbacks are with their younger players, limits the ceiling of what San Francisco can accomplish. Because of this, the Giants are more likely to finish in fourth place in the National League West rather than the upstart Diamondbacks, who have more upside to finish in third.
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