MLB: 5 young pitchers poised for breakouts in 2023

Young MLB pitchers often hit some bumps in the road before becoming the aces that everyone expects them to be. It is very rare that a young prospect hits the ground running on the bump and becomes a consistent, reliable arm. Often times, they have the arm talent, but learning to get outs at the major league level takes time.

In the minors, they are typically pitching to younger, up and coming players. A strategy that works down in Double-A may not work against Joey Votto in his 15th season who has seen just about everything. Pitching can be relatable to a game of chess, and learning different pitch combinations that help overtake the king can take quite a bit of time.

Last year Framber Valdez, Triston McKenzie, and Alek Manoah took a big step towards becoming aces for their respective teams. McKenzie, in fact, went from a 4.95 ERA and 4.70 FIP in 2021, to 2.96 and 3.59 respectively in 2022. He even had his bumps in the road early on in the season, but finished with a 2.70 ERA after the all-star break.

This isn’t to say that pitchers always need the adjustment period before becoming aces. Spencer Strider and Walker Buehler hit the ground running in their first full seasons and became elite pitchers.

Without further ado, here are 5 MLB pitchers I expect to break out this year.

MLB pitching breakout candidate: Hunter Greene

Hunter Greene was drafted second overall in 2017, and was ranked as high as #21 in MLB.com’s prospect rankings. Because of that, his debut was highly anticipated in 2022. Well that, and the fact that he had a blazing 100 mph fastball.

Last season, however, was an absurd case of a tale of two seasons for Hunter Greene.

Heading into the All-Star break, Greene sported a 5.78 ERA, 5.42 FIP, and 2.29 HR/9 innings. Major league talent had no problem catching up to that blazing fastball, and he was getting hit hard.

However, from the All-Star break onward, he had a 1.02 ERA, 1.70 FIP, and .25 HR/9. That’s an incredible 180-degree turn for a pitcher in his rookie season. He had an absurd 12.99 K/9 as well. All of a sudden, Greene had no problem missing bats.

Full disclosure, I do not expect Greene to put up his second half numbers for the entirety of 2023, but it does prove that he is capable of taking that next step. Confidence is an immense factor here as well, and his second half he should have no shortage of that.

Greene seemed to be an ace in the making his entire time in the minor leagues, and he appears to be heading towards stardom in 2023.

MLB pitching breakout candidate: Nick Lodolo

Lodolo is another top prospect who debuted with the Reds last year with mixed results. The other similarity to Greene is that Lodolo finished 2022 very strong, providing optimism for his future.

Lodolo finished 2022 with a 3.66 ERA and 3.90 FIP over 103 innings. Honestly, those are very respectable numbers for a rookie and provide plenty of reasons to be excited. After the All-Star break, Lodolo hit another gear as he went on to throw 77 innings of 2.92 ERA and 3.57 FIP baseball. His second half FIP bested that of Gerrit Cole, Dylan Cease, and many more elite pitchers.

Lodolo was the seventh overall pick in the 2019 after playing ball at Texas Christian University. He ranked as high as #48 in MLB.com’s prospect rankings in 2020.

His prized pitch is his curveball, and he threw it 515 times for an opponents batting average of .136 in 2022 per Baseball Savant. That same curve had a whiff % of almost half at 46. His 4-seamer isn’t fun to swing at either, as it had a .210 opponent batting average. That can mostly be attributed to it’s horizontal movement, as it breaks horizontally 8.5 inches more than the average fastball.

The Cincinnati Reds haven’t had much to cheer about recently, but these two young pitchers might provide reason to buy some tickets!

MLB pitching breakout candidate: James Kaprielian

The Oakland Athletics have a murky future, and an ownership that appears intent on not contending. As an Athletics fan, you have to look hard for bright spots, but I wouldn’t look any future than James Kaprielian.

Drafted in the first round (16th overall) by the Yankees in 2015, Kaprielian was shipped over to Oakland as part of the Sonny Gray trade. Oddly enough, he was recovering from Tommy John Surgery during that trade. He was one of the Yankees top pitching prospects at the time, and reached #58 on MLB.com’s prospect list in 2017.

It took until 2020 for Kaprielian to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues, and it wasn’t pretty at first. The first two years and change of his big league career have been a mix of promise, and disappointment. Last year, he held a 4.23 ERA and 4.63 FIP for the Athletics.

As everyone else on this list, he finished 2022 very strong. Over 65 innings, he compiled a 3.32 ERA and 3.42 FIP after the All-Star break. He provided the exact consistency that will be necessary for him to put up better numbers.

Kaprielian’s slider is his bread and butter, and opponents batted .190 against it last year. It also had a .357 slugging against, and a 35.4 whiff percentage.

The key to getting out of Oakland in the past has been performing well enough to bring in good prospects in a trade. Hopefully Kaprielian is able to get his value up so he can wear a different uniform soon.

MLB pitching breakout candidate: Reid Detmers

The Angels starting pitching struggled for almost the past decade. This year, they finally figure to have a legitimate pitching staff, and a big part of that is the expected year from Reid Detmers.

The Angels selected Detmers 10th overall in the 2020 draft out of Louisville, and he shot up their farm system. He got a cup of coffee in the big leagues that very next year and, through five games, it wasn’t pretty. That is to be expected, as he was pitching to college bats just a year prior to that.

2022 was a rollercoaster year for Detmers. On May 10, in a game that featured an Anthony Rendon left-handed home run off Brett Phillips, Detmers pitched a no-hitter against the Rays. He became the 25th pitcher with rookie eligibility to throw a no-hitter.

Six short weeks after that, he was optioned to Triple-A. He had a 5.67 ERA in those six starts with eight homers and 13 walks in 27 innings.

That wasn’t the last we would see of Detmers. He was brought back up to the big leagues shortly after that, and had a 3.36 ERA and 2.57 FIP after the All-Star break. His post All-Star break FIP was the 12th-lowest in MLB for all starters. In fact, the Angels had four starters in the top 31 of post All-Star game FIP (Ohtani, Detmers, Suarez, and Sandoval).

Detmers go-to pitch to miss bats is undoubtedly his curveball. I can’t help but think of Barry Zito as I see the immense break to it. He threw that curve 400 times last year to a .204 opponents batting average and 30% whiff rate. The pitch has much more vertical and horizontal movement than your average curveball.

2023 will be a big year for Detmers. He doesn’t necessarily need to break out, but a breakout appears on the horizon.