NL Central preview: 3. Chicago Cubs
After a strong offseason, Chicago slowly inches closer and closer to a team of contending status. The offseason was highlighted with the signing of Dansby Swanson, who is coming off a career season notching a 115 wRC+. Swanson is a key centerpiece in a Cubs lineup that must carry the team into playoff contention.
Chicago also gave Cody Bellinger a hefty contract this offseason, signing him to a one year prove-it deal. For Bellinger, the excuses must be ignored at this point. The former MVP has been objectively horrific offensively, averaging a 65 wRC+ over his last two seasons. But the offensive side isn’t the end all be all of Bellinger’s game. He’s a proven strong defensive center fielder, posting a 3.8 defensive WAR last season.
Bellinger will join Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, forming a very well-rounded outfield group. The Japanese star Suzuki had a solid rookie campaign, posting 14 home runs with a .262 average. While it may not have been smart to hold onto Willson Contreras, keeping Ian Happ was certainly the right move. The long-time Cub is a solid switch-hitting bat who can play multiple different positions in the outfield. It’s been rumored that Chicago has “started talks” on an extension for both Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. Trey Mancini is another solid veteran bat that will join this lineup, along with Eric Hosmer and Tucker Barnhart. These one-year veteran deals have made Chicago undeniably better, giving them the liberty to rotate guys like Yan Gomes, Frank Schwindel and Christopher Morel off the bench.
Two prospects to look out for are Matthew Mervis and Kelvin Alcantara, both versatile defenders with sharp bats who are expected to make debuts at some point this year.
While the lineup is heavily improved, both the rotation and bullpen are not sufficient for a contending team. Jameson Taillon was the biggest name that Chicago added to the rotation, signing him to a four-year deal over the offseason. Taillon will join Marcus Stroman at the top of a rotation that is still looking for an ace. While Taillon and Stroman are well above average, neither of them would be a top starting pitcher on a playoff team. Case in point, Taillon was the number four starter on a World Series contending Yankees team last season. Stroman managed to crack the top three on a 2021 Mets team that was just short of the postseason. However, neither have been premier starters on serious contending teams.
Chicago brought back Drew Smyly on a multi-year deal which was rightly criticized. Why sign a 33-year-old to multi-year deal, especially after he posted pretty average numbers in just 19 starts (3.47 ERA, 4.23 FIP)? As I always say, having depth in a starting rotation is always great, but it’s not very meaningful when the team lacks overall top tier starting pitching. This statement undeniably applies to Chicago, who has tried to throw money at the problem. Amongst Smyly, Kyle Hendricks, Taillon and Stroman, Chicago is paying a combined $61 million. While it’s not an egregious figure, it is a bit disappointing the rotation is still below average with this much investment.
This year’s bullpen comes in with some solid improvements. Both Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger are solid additions, joining Rowan Wick as the three potential closer options coming into the season.
There’s no denying Chicago has heavily improved over this past offseason. The lineup has significantly improved, while also becoming much more deep. While I think it’s entirely possible Chicago could flirt with a Wild Card spot, this team is still in need of starting pitching improvements if they want a shot of competing for an NL Central title.