MLB division preview and predictions: NL Central

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 24: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a two-run home run in the third inning against the Chicago Cubs in game one of a doubleheader at Wrigley Field on September 24, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - SEPTEMBER 24: Paul Goldschmidt #46 of the St. Louis Cardinals hits a two-run home run in the third inning against the Chicago Cubs in game one of a doubleheader at Wrigley Field on September 24, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
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There’s been a lot of movement over the offseason in the NL Central. Can the Cubs swipe a Wild Card spot after adding Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger? Does adding Willson Contreras once again make the Cardinals the best team in the division? Can Corbin Burnes and the Brewers starting rotation carry Milwaukee to another division title?

Let’s answer all these questions and more in our NL Central preview for 2023

NL Central preview: 5. Cincinnati Reds

Can you believe the Reds almost made the playoffs two years ago? It’s almost impossible to comprehend, with the team now having one of the worst rosters in Major League Baseball. The young starting pitching staff is highlighted by Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft. These three players are the future of Cincinnati’s pitching staff for years to come, with all three hoping to make big strides of improvement this season. It was a tough rookie season for Greene, who went 5-13 with a 4.44 ERA (4.37 FIP) over 125 innings of work. Greene showed glimpses of domination last year, but it remains clear that he must improve his secondary pitches to better complement his 99+ mph fastball. The 25-year-old Ashcraft is a similar case. Ashcraft showcased a cutter that averaged 97.3 mph last season, registering a strongly effective pitch value of 4.2 runs above average. However, every other pitch was below average, in turn bringing his final ERA to 4.89 last season (4.21 FIP). Former top prospect Nick Lodolo lived up to the hype last season, registering seven games with eight or more strikeouts. It was by all means a dominant rookie campaign for the lefty, who posted 135 strikeouts over 103 innings of work, finishing with a 3.66 ERA (3.90 FIP). Cincinnati will hope for these three talented young arms to showcase further impressive strides this season.

While the lineup remains incredibly grim, Cincinnati added Wil Myers and Chad Pinder, two solid MLB vets who could potentially be dealt at the trade deadline for some prospects. Future Hall of Famer Joey Votto will potentially play his last season in Cincinnati. The 39 year old was hilariously optimistic over the offseason, predicting aliens will help the Reds bring home a World Series title. Former NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India and catcher Tyler Stephenson are the young pieces that highlight this lineup. However, they could be joined midseason by two stud young shortstops. Elly De La Cruz comes in as the 10th-ranked prospect, with a chance of a possible debut later this season. The 21 year old hit over .300 in both single and double-A last season while showcasing impressive defensive tools. Noelvi Marte, the 29th-overall prospect in baseball, was the main piece Cincinnati received in a trade that sent former ace Luis Castillo to the Seattle Mariners. Though expected to make his debut in 2024, the 21-year-old is certainly someone to keep an eye on. Alexis Diaz, brother of Edwin Diaz, will be fun to watch closing games out of the bullpen. However, it’s hard to imagine we’ll see him all that often this year.

It’s gonna be another losing season for Cincinnati, and currently there isn’t much light at the end of the tunnel.

PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 27: Bryan Reynolds #10 of the Pittsburgh Pirates in action against the Philadelphia Phillies during a game at Citizens Bank Park on August 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA – AUGUST 27: Bryan Reynolds #10 of the Pittsburgh Pirates in action against the Philadelphia Phillies during a game at Citizens Bank Park on August 27, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

NL Central preview: 4. Pittsburgh Pirates

I know this might be hard to believe, but the Pirates actually spent money in an offseason! Pretty crazy stuff. Nonetheless, it would be foolish to say this money was well spent. Bringing back Pirates legend Andrew McCutchen was really the only intriguing signing Pittsburgh had this offseason. McCutchen will join a young lineup that has undeniably improved this offseason. Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi and Austin Hedges are all new additions that improve the overall product of the team. But the question is just how much? Certainly not enough to make them even relatively close to contending. Regardless, we can expect big seasons from Oniel Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, who are by far the most talented players in this lineup. The sky’s the limit for Cruz, who showcased incredible power and exit velocity in his rookie season. Bryan Reynolds has established himself as one of the premier outfielders in our game, recording a career high 27 homers last season. The All-Star is clearly unhappy in Pittsburgh, reportedly requesting a trade earlier in the offseason. Rodolfo Castro is another name to monitor in the lineup, with the 23-year-old slashing a respectable 103 wRC+ in 278 AB’s last season.

Despite the additions of Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez, the rotation is still one of the worst in baseball. After a disastrous start to the 2022 season, the once highly touted Mitch Keller settled down and managed to piece together a fine season. While the beginning was tough, Keller finished the season oddly strong, posting a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings of work in the month of September. Keller will look to improve his ERA mark of 3.91 last season, reportedly adding a hybrid cutter/slider to his repertoire over the offseason. In addition to Keller, Pittsburgh has a few more quality young arms that could pan out in the coming future. Both Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras are young righties with electric sinking fastballs averaging around 98 mph. Contreras looked promising in 95 innings last year, posting a 3.79 ERA with 86 strikeouts. Another name to watch is Quinn Priester, who is expected to make his debut later this year. The 22-year-old is currently the 60th-ranked prospect on MLB Pipeline.

There’s no denying the future is bright for Pittsburgh. Aside from their young roster pieces, they have an incredible farm consisting of five top 100 prospects (according to MLB Pipeline). Not to mention, Pittsburgh also has the number one overall selection in this year’s entry draft. While it’s very likely another brutal season in Pittsburgh, help may soon be on the horizon for the Bucs.

PITTSBURGH, PA – JUNE 22: Ian Happ #8 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after his two run home run during the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 22, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – JUNE 22: Ian Happ #8 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after his two run home run during the second inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on June 22, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images) /

NL Central preview: 3. Chicago Cubs

After a strong offseason, Chicago slowly inches closer and closer to a team of contending status. The offseason was highlighted with the signing of Dansby Swanson, who is coming off a career season notching a 115 wRC+. Swanson is a key centerpiece in a Cubs lineup that must carry the team into playoff contention.

Chicago also gave Cody Bellinger a hefty contract this offseason, signing him to a one year prove-it deal. For Bellinger, the excuses must be ignored at this point. The former MVP has been objectively horrific offensively, averaging a 65 wRC+ over his last two seasons. But the offensive side isn’t the end all be all of Bellinger’s game. He’s a proven strong defensive center fielder, posting a 3.8 defensive WAR last season.

Bellinger will join Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ, forming a very well-rounded outfield group. The Japanese star Suzuki had a solid rookie campaign, posting 14 home runs with a .262 average. While it may not have been smart to hold onto Willson Contreras, keeping Ian Happ was certainly the right move. The long-time Cub is a solid switch-hitting bat who can play multiple different positions in the outfield. It’s been rumored that Chicago has “started talks” on an extension for both Happ and infielder Nico Hoerner. Trey Mancini is another solid veteran bat that will join this lineup, along with Eric Hosmer and Tucker Barnhart. These one-year veteran deals have made Chicago undeniably better, giving them the liberty to rotate guys like Yan Gomes, Frank Schwindel and Christopher Morel off the bench.

Two prospects to look out for are Matthew Mervis and Kelvin Alcantara, both versatile defenders with sharp bats who are expected to make debuts at some point this year.

While the lineup is heavily improved, both the rotation and bullpen are not sufficient for a contending team. Jameson Taillon was the biggest name that Chicago added to the rotation, signing him to a four-year deal over the offseason. Taillon will join Marcus Stroman at the top of a rotation that is still looking for an ace. While Taillon and Stroman are well above average, neither of them would be a top starting pitcher on a playoff team. Case in point, Taillon was the number four starter on a World Series contending Yankees team last season. Stroman managed to crack the top three on a 2021 Mets team that was just short of the postseason. However, neither have been premier starters on serious contending teams.

Chicago brought back Drew Smyly on a multi-year deal which was rightly criticized. Why sign a 33-year-old to multi-year deal, especially after he posted pretty average numbers in just 19 starts (3.47 ERA, 4.23 FIP)? As I always say, having depth in a starting rotation is always great, but it’s not very meaningful when the team lacks overall top tier starting pitching. This statement undeniably applies to Chicago, who has tried to throw money at the problem. Amongst Smyly, Kyle Hendricks, Taillon and Stroman, Chicago is paying a combined $61 million. While it’s not an egregious figure, it is a bit disappointing the rotation is still below average with this much investment.

This year’s bullpen comes in with some solid improvements. Both Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger are solid additions, joining Rowan Wick as the three potential closer options coming into the season.

There’s no denying Chicago has heavily improved over this past offseason. The lineup has significantly improved, while also becoming much more deep. While I think it’s entirely possible Chicago could flirt with a Wild Card spot, this team is still in need of starting pitching improvements if they want a shot of competing for an NL Central title.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JULY 09: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers is honored making the All-Star game before the game against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on July 09, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Reds defeated the Brewers 2-0. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – JULY 09: Corbin Burnes #39 of the Milwaukee Brewers is honored making the All-Star game before the game against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on July 09, 2021 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Reds defeated the Brewers 2-0. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) /

NL Central preview: 2. Milwaukee Brewers

It was another frustrating offseason for Brewers fans, with the team failing to spend significant money in free agency. While virtually no money was spent, it was also hard to ignore the trade rumors that floated around for key players such as Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames and Christian Yelich. Regardless, the team will have to move on from the offseason turmoil and compete for their fifth playoff appearance in the last six seasons.

They’ll have to do it with a lineup that has a lot to prove this season. Similar to Cody Bellinger, it’s time to accept the reality of Christian Yelich as a player. 2022 marked Yelich’s third season with under 15 home runs, making it clear he is no longer the slugging outfielder he used to be. But let’s still give Yelich his due credit; he’s posted a 107 wRC+ over the past two seasons, which is still above average. With it clear Yelich is no longer the main producer, the lineup is really composed of a bunch of hitters that are above average when it comes to offensive production. Rowdy Tellez, Luis Urias, Willy Adames, Luke Voit and Jesse Winker all fit this category. They are all solid, above-average hitters at this point in their careers. William Contreras is the one outlier in this lineup, who posted a terrific 138 wRC+ in 376 at-bats last season. However, Contreras is an outlier because he wasn’t an everyday player. At times he would platoon with catcher Travis D’Arnaud for rest, or slot into the DH spot for favorable matchups. Maybe I’m being a little too nit-picky here, but Contreras will have to prove that he can replicate these incredible numbers under a little bit more difficult circumstances, along with a much larger sample size.

Former first-rounders Garrett Mitchell and Sal Frelick are two young prospects to keep an eye on. While it’s unclear if Frelick will start the season on the big league roster, he’s a clear impact player, notably receiving votes for the 2023 NL Rookie of the Year conducted with front office executives. Garrett Mitchell was a late august call-up, posting a 136 wRC+ over 68 at-bats last season. He’s carried this impressive production into spring training, homering twice in the Brewers Cactus League opener.

It’s also important to mention that this lineup is objectively deep. Brian Anderson, Victor Caratini, Abraham Toro, Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller are all experienced quality players who will likely be slated on Milwaukee’s bench.

Though the Brewers didn’t crack my top five starting rotations, they sure came pretty close. It’s a loaded rotation with a top three featuring Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. To many baseball writers including me, Burnes is the consensus best pitcher overall pitcher in our game. Unfortunately for Brewers fans, Burnes is a bit frustrated with the team after his arbitration hearing. If things go south this season, could we possibly see him traded at the deadline?

It was business as usual for Brandon Woodruff last season, who posted another strong 3.05 ERA, which eclipsing a career-high 11.15 K/9 over 153 innings of work last year. Freddy Peralta only registered 78 innings last season, but still managed to post a solid 3.58 ERA (3.08 FIP). If this top three can post a stat line similar to the 2021 season, it might just be able to carry Milwaukee to another division title. The rotation is rounded out with southpaws Eric Lauer and Aaron Ashby, who are both strong options at the four and five spots in the rotation. Ashby struggled a bit last year in his rookie season, but is incredibly talented and capable of bouncing back this year. Ashby will start the year on IR, with veteran Wade Miley taking his place for the time being.

You can’t preview this team without taking a look at the bullpen, which has certainly seen a lot of changes over the past year. After trading away Josh Hader, Devin Williams became the star of the bullpen, and with good reason. Williams had another incredible season last year, becoming the first Brewers relief pitcher to go 30 relief appearances without allowing a single earned run. After losing Hader, Brent Suter and Brad Boxberger, the bullpen is now a little more thin. Aside from Williams, veterans Matt Bush and Jake Cousins are the other high-leverage options.

While it’s clear Milwaukee has elite pitching, it’s fair to say this lineup does not have enough firepower to compete at the top of the National League. But hopefully the Brewers will address this later in the season. There’s no denying they’ll be in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

Sep 22, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Lars Nootbaar (21) is congratulated by second baseman Brendan Donovan (33) after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 22, 2022; San Diego, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals center fielder Lars Nootbaar (21) is congratulated by second baseman Brendan Donovan (33) after hitting a home run against the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports /

NL Central preview: 1. St. Louis Cardinals

After a disappointing Wild Card exit against Philadelphia, St. Louis will rely on a stacked lineup to help capture their second straight division title. Reigning NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt will look to carry a lineup which is arguably one of the best in the National League. While St. Louis failed to acquire starting pitching during the offseason, they did manage to replace Yadier Molina with All-Star catcher Willson Contreras. The three-time All-Star achieved a career-high in wRC+ (132) and home runs (22) last season, earning a five-year deal from St. Louis. Contreras is yet another formidable bat to join this lineup, a lineup that is difficult to pinpoint a true weakness. Third baseman Nolan Arenado was right behind Paul Goldschmidt in MVP voting, finishing third in overall voting after another terrific season. Tommy Edman and Nolan Gorman make up the rest of the infield, with Gorman looking to build on a respectable rookie season.

The outfield is led by Tyler O’Neill who was surprisingly disappointing after the .286/34 home run slash he posted in the 2021 season. O’Neill was hurt for just about half of last season and will look to replicate another monster year similar to 2021. O’Neill will compete for the center field job with 24-year-old Dylan Carlson, who did regress a bit offensively last season. It will be interesting to see where utility man Brendan Donovan fits into the group, who was a pleasant surprise for St. Louis last season. Donovan finished third in rookie of the year voting, showcasing incredible plate discipline and great defensive versatility.

Top prospect Jordan Walker was a big reason why St. Louis was unwilling to trade for outfielder Juan Soto at last year’s trade deadline. The outfielder has hit above .300 at every stage of his minor league career and is currently raking in spring training. Expect to see Walker called up sometime during the 2023 season.

Starting pitching remains a clear weakness for St. Louis, who failed to address the need in the offseason. For the third season in a row, the Cardinals will rely on now 41-year-old Adam Wainwright to be a key facet in the rotation. Miles Mikolas bounced back last year with strong numbers, and will be relied upon for another strong season. Jordan Montgomery was a strong acquisition at last year’s deadline, fitting into the group as another above-average starting piece. Then there’s Jack Flaherty, who has not been able to put together a full season since his legendary 2019 performance. There’s no reason to believe much will change this year, with Flaherty reportedly still having restraints coming into spring training.

The future of the rotation is very much up in question with Wainwright (likely retiring), Montgomery, Flaherty, and Mikolas all becoming free agents next season. It’s a prove-it year for pretty much everyone but Wainwright, with much of the group in search of a long-term contract.

Speaking of long-term deals, St. Louis likely has buyer’s remorse with Steven Matz, who pitched just 48 innings last year. His ERA was a deceiving 5.25 (3.78 FIP), but the real cause for concern are the injuries. They’ve haunted Matz his whole career, and continue to do so at age 31. Matthew Liberatore is the lone young arm in this rotation, posting all-around disappointing numbers in his rookie season. The highly touted lefty arm posted a 5.97 ERA in just 34 innings, failing to post the high velocity numbers that he managed to do earlier as a prospect. Redbird fans are certainly hoping he can turn it around this year.

Ryan Helsey was nearly unhittable in the regular season last year, and will lead a Cardinals bullpen that’s bringing back Giovanny Gallegos, TJ McFarland, and Jordan Hicks.

Next. 1 bold prediction for each NL Central team in 2023. dark

St. Louis has a real chance to be a World Series contender. That is, of course, after they acquire an elite starting pitcher, which they don’t really have right now.

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