Listing the 10 worst MLB contracts for the 2023 season
There are MLB contracts that seem like a bargain, and there are others that seem like an albatross. With Opening Day not far away, let’s look at the 10 worst contracts for the 2023 MLB season and exactly what makes them so bad.
Madison Bumgarner of the Arizona Diamondbacks has one of the worst MLB contracts
Since signing a five-year, $85 million deal before the start of the 2020 campaign, Bumgarner has looked much more like a mere mortal than the heroic figure he was during his days with the San Francisco Giants and their three World Series titles with him as a part of the rotation.
The now-33-year-old Bumgarner is scheduled to make $23 million this season, the same amount he made in 2022 when he logged an ERA+ of 82 while posting a 4.88 ERA/4.85 FIP/1.437 WHIP in 30 starts covering 158.2 innings. The southpaw will have to improve mightily in order to earn the money the Diamondbacks are paying him this season. Projections, however, don’t favor that happening, with both ZiPS and Steamer indicating Bumgarner’s ERA will actually go up this season, finishing just under 5.00.
Arizona has not received its return on investment from Bumgarner so far, and it looks like the Diamondbacks won’t over the next two years either.
Yusei Kikuchi of the Toronto Blue Jays has one of the worst MLB contracts
Kikuchi is slated to make $10 million this season as part of a three-year, $36 contract he signed with the Blue Jays before the 2022 season. The left-hander was a disappointment in his first season with Toronto, being forced from the rotation after an August 15 start against Baltimore where he allowed six runs (three earned) in 3.1 innings. That was the end of a three-game stretch in August where he posted a 7.30 ERA and lasted just 12.1 innings in his three starts, walking seven and striking out 12 during that span.
Right now, Kikuchi is projected to be the fifth starter for the Blue Jays, and, like last season, there is certainly a chance that the 31-year-old could be booted from the rotation again in 2023 if he doesn’t perform.
Early in spring, Kikuchi is looking more like the pitcher Toronto hoped he would be, but is that a spring mirage or the sign of something good to come? With numbers like 14.8 percent of batted balls being barreled off him last season (compared to the MLB average of 9.7), we’re going to bet on more trouble to come for him and the Blue Jays in 2023.
Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals has one of the worst MLB contracts
Flash back to the end of the 2019 season. The Nationals have just won the World Series and Strasburg was a big part of that, earning MVP honors in the Fall Classic as he posted a 2.51 ERA in two starts (14.1 innings) against the Houston Astros. With Strasburg heading to free agency, the Nationals hand him a seven-year, $245 million deal. At the time, it seems like a smart move. However, it has backfired in a big way for Washington.
Since his World Series exploits, Strasburg has made just eight starts over the last three seasons, working the mound for a combined 31.1 innings. That includes last season when the now-34-year-old right-hander made just one start (on June 9 at Miami) before being shut down for the rest of the season. He made $35 million last season, the same number he is scheduled to make in 2023. However, he is already once again battling thoracic outlet symptoms that result in rib and shoulder discomfort, causing him to not report to spring training on time.
All of Strasburg’s money from that mammoth contract is guaranteed, meaning the Nationals will be paying him this season, no matter how many (if any) games he pitches.
Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals has one of the worst MLB contracts
Unlike his teammate in Strasburg, Corbin did pitch in 2022 … but it certainly wasn’t a plus for Washington.
In the middle of a six-year, $140 million deal where he will make $24 million this season, the 33-year-old left-hander was dismal in 2022, posting three starts where he didn’t even make it out of the first inning. Corbin made 31 starts last season, including 12 after the All-Star Game, a stretch where his ERA ballooned to over 7 (7.13 in those 53.0 innings).
Take a look at his Baseball Savant page and you’ll see nothing but blue (that’s not good) from last season. And there is really nothing to suggest that Corbin will get better in 2023, nor is there anything to suggest that the Nationals won’t stop using him as a starter, no matter how badly he may be pitching.
Corbin’s salary and performance makes him almost impossible to move, meaning the Nationals are simply stuck with another bad contract in 2023.
Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers has one of the worst MLB contracts
Tigers fans won’t like this one, but paying Miguel Cabrera $32 million this season after coming off a campaign where he posted an OPS+ of 83 and slashed just .254/.305/.317 is a tough pill to swallow.
Absolutely, Cabrera should be celebrated for his long and illustrious MLB career, including passing the 3,000-hit mark last season, but $32 million? That seems a little pricey for a player who will turn 40 on April 18.
Last season, despite the heroics, Cabrera posted minus-1.0 bWAR and saw many of his advanced numbers drop to career-lows, including an average exit velocity that didn’t even hit 90 mph (89.9). It continued a decline for Cabrera, who posted triple-digits in OPS+ in a full season just once since the 2016 season concluded.
This will be the last season for Cabrera in uniform, setting the stage for him to head to Cooperstown and likely play a role with the franchise in seasons to come.
Here’s hoping Cabrera’s final season exceeds expectations, but it will be hard to get value that equals the contract out of however many at-bats he puts together in 2023.
Josh Donaldson of the New York Yankees has one of the worst MLB contracts
This season, the 37-year-old Donaldson will make $21 million with the Yankees, the same number he made last season when he slashed .222/.308/.374 and posted an OPS+ of 94. Granted, that was the first campaign where Donaldson finished below triple digits in OPS+ since 2012 and Donaldson has already attributed the bad season to the lockout, but there are plenty of people ready to point the finger at Donaldson should the Yankees once again fall short of the Fall Classic this season.
Donaldson slashed just .077/.250/.154 in the ALCS sweep at the hands of the Houston Astros, striking out 10 times in 16 plate appearances during the series. It was far enough away from the start of the season that any talk of the lockout and its effects could be wiped away, so is that the Donaldson who will once again play third base in the Bronx this season? Or is there really a rebound coming as Yankees manager Aaron Boone has said this spring?
One thing is for sure, Donaldson didn’t earn his paycheck in 2022, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he likely won’t do it again in 2023.
Anthony Rendon of the Los Angeles Angels has one of the worst MLB contracts
Once a coveted free agent prize, few players have witnessed a downfall like Angels’ third baseman Anthony Rendon.
The soon-to-be 33-year-old comes with a hefty price tag of $38.6 million in 2023, which for a player with just 105 games under his belt over the last two seasons, is simply not worth all that cash.
Of course, the Angels will be counting on Rendon to bounce back and stay healthy this season to aid Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and crew as they push to end the Angels’ playoff drought that dates back to 2014. However, that’s a strategy based on a whole lot of hope and optimism rather than reason.
Rendon’s career OPS with the Nationals? .859. Since landing in Anaheim? .779. The drop-off is noticeable, so not only will the veteran third baseman need a resurgence of his health, but also in his performance at the plate in 2023 to justify his bloated salary figure.
Yoan Moncada of the Chicago White Sox has one of the worst MLB contracts
The Chicago White Sox signed Yoán Moncada to a five-year, $70 million extension following a breakout 2019 season where he hit .315/.367/.548 for a 140 OPS+ with 34 doubles, 25 home runs and 5.2 WAR in 132 games.
His performance has been up and down in the years since, and the 2022 season was a clear down. He hit only .212 with a 76 OPS+ and 0.9 WAR in 104 games while missing time with quad and hamstring injuries.
His batted-ball data provides little in the way of optimism, as his hard-hit rate (33rd percentile), average exit velocity (43rd percentile), xBA (12th percentile) and xwOBA (18th percentile) were all well below his career marks.
Moncada has all the talent in the world, but without any consistency to his game of late, it’s difficult to assess whether he’ll truly be worth his 2023 salary of $17.8 million.
Christian Yelich of the Milwaukee Brewers has one of the worst MLB contracts
Christian Yelich won the NL MVP award in 2018 and followed that breakout performance with a runner-up finish in MVP balloting in 2019. So you’d think his $26 million salary in 2023 would be somewhat of a bargain, right, especially as free agent prices continue skyrocket?
Unfortunately, that’s not the case.
Yelich has really struggled over the last three seasons, falling to an OPS under .800 and clocking in at roughly league average by OPS+ standards (110, 101, 111). Last season was actually Yelich’s best season of the last three, but that bar has been lowered significantly, in line with his recent output.
The 31-year-old can’t live off his MVP glory forever; three straight subpar seasons will erase those memories. And he’ll need to prove he’s worth the $26 million he’s owed in 2023 if the Brewers have any chance to unseat the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central.
Giancarlo Stanton of the New York Yankees has one of the worst MLB contracts
In the games he’s played, Giancarlo Stanton has actually been somewhat productive as a Bronx Bomber. But the key words remain “in the games he’s played.” And as long as he continues getting nicked up at various points throughout a season, that narrative will follow him.
It’s hard to feel like a team is getting value on a player when, oftentimes, the best ability is availability. So is roughly 30 home runs and a (roughly) .800 OPS over 120ish games worth a $32 million salary in 2023?
Well, when teammate Aaron Judge is hitting an American League-record 62 home runs in 157 games played like he did last season, the answer is probably no. But then again, Judge probably isn’t having that kind of season … ever again.
The Yankees have few alternatives in their lineup besides Judge and Stanton, however, so New York will swallow the $32 million owed to Stanton as an overpay as they try to get over the hump this season.