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MLB division preview and predictions: AL East

By Jack McKenney

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 22: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees reacts after his double against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 22, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 22: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees reacts after his double against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 22, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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It’s the best division in baseball, with five teams residing in the AL East that are all capable of making the postseason. Can the New York Yankees defend their division title? Can the Boston Red Sox secure a Wild Card spot despite losing Xander Bogaerts?

Let’s answer these questions and more take a look out the AL East shapes out for the 2023 season.

AL East preview: 5. Baltimore Orioles

After a surprisingly strong performance last season, the Orioles were expected to be heavy players in this year’s deep free agent class. It was GM Mike Elias who claimed the Birds would have a “significant escalation in payroll” over the offseason, thus leading to murmurs that the Orioles were great fits for big names like Trea Turner and Carlos Rodon. However, Baltimore spent just $18 million on two players, leaving a whiff of frustration amongst Oriole nation. Owner John Angelos doubled down on the lack of spending. He believed the organization “overachieved and overperformed” last season, and is still unsure when payroll will significantly escalate. How convenient.

Regardless, Baltimore comes into the season with some promising young talent, making them yet another tough out in the AL East. Catcher Adley Rutschman is truly the real deal. The number one overall pick is now the face of the franchise after a sensational rookie season, and will look to lead this lineup along with leadoff hitter Cedric Mullins. After having a 30 HR/.307 slash in 2021, Mullins regressed a bit last season, still posting above average offense numbers (106 wRC+). Mullins and Rutschmann are the two best bats in this lineup, and will have to put in big numbers if Baltimore wants to contend. Gunnar Henderson is currently the number one prospect in baseball, posting a stellar 125 wRC+ slash in 132 at-bats last year. The 21-year-old is also a versatile defender, starting games at shortstop, third base and second base last season. Adam Frazier was Baltimore’s best signing over the offseason, a versatile infield defender who possesses elite contact hitting skills from the left side of the plate. While Jorge Mateo wasn’t stellar at the plate last year, he posted incredible defensive numbers from shortstop last season. He’ll likely start the year on Baltimore’s bench, offering speed and elite defense to the lineup.

The current starting rotation is what’s really holding Baltimore back. It’s simply not good enough for a playoff contender. It’s unclear who will start Opening Day, so let’s go through the options. Righty Dean Kremer is certainly in contention after positing a strong 3.23 ERA in 21 starts last season. John Means will finally rejoin this starting group, a key lefty starter who has always been a solid option. Means pitched just eight innings before requiring season-ending Tommy John surgery. Cole Irvin is another candidate, another lefty who was acquired from the A’s in the offseason, posting a sub-four ERA last season. Kyle Bradish and Kyle Gibson round out the group, who are similar average righty starters who can eat up innings. Overall, this is a disappointing starting rotation for a team that has a chance to contend. The group lacks an ace, and is really just filled with above-average pieces one through five. Even if Baltimore manages to squeak into the postseason, this current rotation would get obliterated in a five-game playoff series. Sooner or later, Baltimore must acquire elite starting pitching if they wish to be true contenders, whether it’s through the farm or trades/free agency.

We also have to keep in mind Baltimore does have some really special young arms we could see this season. Grayson Rodriguez (#7 overall) and DL Hall (#97 overall) are both top 100 arms that we’ve been hearing about for a while now. It’s gonna be really exciting to see the success these guys have at the big league level after several years of development.

The bullpen will be led by Felix Bautista, a big flame-throwing righty who took over the closing role after All-Star Jorge Lopez was traded to Minnesota. Bautista posted an elite 2.19 ERA over 65.2 innings, and is certainly an arm to monitor for an all star appearance this season.

Do I think Baltimore overperformed a bit last season? Sure, but last season this team battled almost every game, proving they are no longer a bottom-shelf team that won’t win more than 65 games. The pieces are starting to come together in Baltimore. Finally, after years and years of tanking we’re watching the talented farm system Elias has been building. Sooner or later, this team will consistently compete for a playoff spot year after year. At this point, it’s just a matter of when.

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