MLB division preview and predictions: AL East

It’s the best division in baseball, with five teams residing in the AL East that are all capable of making the postseason. Can the New York Yankees defend their division title? Can the Boston Red Sox secure a Wild Card spot despite losing Xander Bogaerts?

Let’s answer these questions and more take a look out the AL East shapes out for the 2023 season.

AL East preview: 5. Baltimore Orioles

After a surprisingly strong performance last season, the Orioles were expected to be heavy players in this year’s deep free agent class. It was GM Mike Elias who claimed the Birds would have a “significant escalation in payroll” over the offseason, thus leading to murmurs that the Orioles were great fits for big names like Trea Turner and Carlos Rodon. However, Baltimore spent just $18 million on two players, leaving a whiff of frustration amongst Oriole nation. Owner John Angelos doubled down on the lack of spending. He believed the organization “overachieved and overperformed” last season, and is still unsure when payroll will significantly escalate. How convenient.

Regardless, Baltimore comes into the season with some promising young talent, making them yet another tough out in the AL East. Catcher Adley Rutschman is truly the real deal. The number one overall pick is now the face of the franchise after a sensational rookie season, and will look to lead this lineup along with leadoff hitter Cedric Mullins. After having a 30 HR/.307 slash in 2021, Mullins regressed a bit last season, still posting above average offense numbers (106 wRC+). Mullins and Rutschmann are the two best bats in this lineup, and will have to put in big numbers if Baltimore wants to contend. Gunnar Henderson is currently the number one prospect in baseball, posting a stellar 125 wRC+ slash in 132 at-bats last year. The 21-year-old is also a versatile defender, starting games at shortstop, third base and second base last season. Adam Frazier was Baltimore’s best signing over the offseason, a versatile infield defender who possesses elite contact hitting skills from the left side of the plate. While Jorge Mateo wasn’t stellar at the plate last year, he posted incredible defensive numbers from shortstop last season. He’ll likely start the year on Baltimore’s bench, offering speed and elite defense to the lineup.

The current starting rotation is what’s really holding Baltimore back. It’s simply not good enough for a playoff contender. It’s unclear who will start Opening Day, so let’s go through the options. Righty Dean Kremer is certainly in contention after positing a strong 3.23 ERA in 21 starts last season. John Means will finally rejoin this starting group, a key lefty starter who has always been a solid option. Means pitched just eight innings before requiring season-ending Tommy John surgery. Cole Irvin is another candidate, another lefty who was acquired from the A’s in the offseason, posting a sub-four ERA last season. Kyle Bradish and Kyle Gibson round out the group, who are similar average righty starters who can eat up innings. Overall, this is a disappointing starting rotation for a team that has a chance to contend. The group lacks an ace, and is really just filled with above-average pieces one through five. Even if Baltimore manages to squeak into the postseason, this current rotation would get obliterated in a five-game playoff series. Sooner or later, Baltimore must acquire elite starting pitching if they wish to be true contenders, whether it’s through the farm or trades/free agency.

We also have to keep in mind Baltimore does have some really special young arms we could see this season. Grayson Rodriguez (#7 overall) and DL Hall (#97 overall) are both top 100 arms that we’ve been hearing about for a while now. It’s gonna be really exciting to see the success these guys have at the big league level after several years of development.

The bullpen will be led by Felix Bautista, a big flame-throwing righty who took over the closing role after All-Star Jorge Lopez was traded to Minnesota. Bautista posted an elite 2.19 ERA over 65.2 innings, and is certainly an arm to monitor for an all star appearance this season.

Do I think Baltimore overperformed a bit last season? Sure, but last season this team battled almost every game, proving they are no longer a bottom-shelf team that won’t win more than 65 games. The pieces are starting to come together in Baltimore. Finally, after years and years of tanking we’re watching the talented farm system Elias has been building. Sooner or later, this team will consistently compete for a playoff spot year after year. At this point, it’s just a matter of when.

AL East preview: 3. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are becoming one of the best organizations in baseball, looking for their fifth straight playoff appearance this season. While it’s impressive they’re having this much success on such a low budget, the team still doesn’t have a World Series title to show for it. Tampa will try to bounce back from last year’s first round exit against Cleveland, boasting one of the best overall pitching staffs in Major League baseball.

Offensively, how does Tampa do it? How do they compete with a lineup that really only has three everyday players? Aside from the usual studs in the lineup like Wander “El Patron” Franco, Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, the Rays use a platoon system to revolutionize offensive production.

To explain the platoon, let’s take Bryce Harper for example. Imagine if Bryce Harper never hit against lefties? What if he only batted against righties? Instead of a .300 hitter, he’d probably be a .330 hitter with more home runs. In other words, he’s a better player when he receives more favorable matchups for offensive success. The Rays use this philosophy with their lineup every single day, with the lineup varying based on who is pitching. For example, if a righty is starting, Francisco Mejia will start over Christian Bethancourt because he is a better hitter against right-handed pitching. The favorable matchup makes him more likely to produce, and, in turn, makes him a better overall player. Because of this everyday rotation within the lineup, players stay fresh and injuries are limited. It’s an incredible way to construct a lineup, revolutionizing the offensive production of otherwise average players. While this strategy has worked in the regular season, the bats went cold in the postseason. Tampa scored just one run in 24 innings, with the sole run coming off a Jose Siri home run. While it’s entirely possible the bats just slumped, it does make you question if Tampa’s platooning system can work against elite postseason pitching.

The rotation will start off short-handed, with Tyler Glasnow suffering an oblique injury at the start of spring training. While temporarily losing Glasnow is a hit, this rotation is still very equipped to compete within the division. It all starts with Shane McClanahan, who truly solidified himself as a number one starter last season. McClanahan posted a 2.54 ERA with a 10.5 K/9 over 166 innings, finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. Newly extended Jeffery Springs will be a key part of this rotation, a lefty who has thoroughly improved under this Tampa Bay coaching staff. Springs came over in a trade from Boston following a 2020 season where he posted an abysmal 7.08 ERA. Two years later, Springs has found his stride in Tampa, posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 innings last year. Springs is yet another Rays success story. Analytics, pitch strategy, and coaching through the Tampa staff has turned himself into a notable starter in this league. Drew Rasmussen is another trade acquisition, coming from Milwaukee in the Willy Adames trade. Like most Rays pitchers, Rasmussen is a unique case for a starter. He doesn’t usually go deep into games like a conventional starter, but is very effective when facing the lineup once or twice through the order. Establishing the cutter/fastball combo is what truly made Rasmussen elite last season. The two pitch values combined for 19.2 runs above average, making it one of the best pitch combos in the game. The addition of Zach Eflin makes this group truly formidable. Eflin signed to a three-year, $40 million contract over this offseason, bringing plenty of playoff experience to the rotation. The 28-year-old pitched key innings for Philadelphia in the playoffs, posting a respectable 3.38 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 10-plus innings during their postseason run. By all means, Eflin is overqualified as a number five option … even for a playoff-contending team. However, Eflin will start in the four spot with Glasnow out for the foreseeable future. It looks as if Luis Patino will slide into the five spot for the time being until Glasnow is fully healthy. Taj Bradley is another arm to monitor. The 20th-ranked prospect had a 2.57 ERA in the minors in 2022 and expected to be called up sometime this season.

If you follow Tampa, you know how instrumental their bullpen is to the pitching staff. Once again, Tampa enters 2023 with a deep, talented group that will help contribute to another winning season. Pete Fairbanks was signed to a three-year extension this offseason, a flame-throwing righty with plenty of high-leverage experience. Fairbanks, along with Jason Adam, Ryan Thompson and Andrew Kittredge, are all elite right-handed relievers who make up this deep bullpen. As for the lefties, Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche are the best options who can matchup with just about anyone.

I have no doubt that Tampa will make the playoffs and win 88-plus games, but is it premature of me to bring up my doubts of how poorly the lineup struggled last October? Against Cleveland, Tampa just simply couldn’t hit. The bats went cold. The lineup hasn’t improved much and you can’t help but worry the same thing may happen again this year.

AL East preview: 2. Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto comes into 2023 with one of the best lineups in baseball, a lineup that could undeniably carry them to their first World Series in 30 years. Four-time All-Star George Springer will remain at the leadoff spot, coming off another strong offensive season. He’ll be followed by Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the two faces of the franchise. Guerrero is looking to throw his name back in the MVP conversation, currently sitting sixth in AL MVP odds. Alejandro Kirk was a pleasant surprise for Toronto last year, posting a .285/14 HR slash in his rookie campaign, earning an All-Star appearance. While he only tallied 14 homers last season, Kirk led all catchers in walks (63) and on base percentage (.372).

Any lineup that has Matt Chapman in the six or seven spot has to be pretty damn good. The three-time Gold Glover recorded his fourth season with 20+ homers, further establishing himself as one of the best two-way players in this league. Toronto gave up top 100 prospect Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to acquire utility man Daulton Varsho. The 26-year-old broke out last season, blasting 27 homers with a .235 average over 531 plate appearances. In addition to the strong power numbers, Varsho provides great defensive versatility, having the ability to play any position in the outfield, along with catching experience. Hopefully Varsho’s production can fill the void of slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, whom the Blue Jays traded to Seattle over the offseason. Whit Merrifield is the other utility man in this lineup, who Toronto acquired at last year’s trade deadline. Merrifield will compete with All-Star Santiago Espinal for the starting second baseman spot. Kevin Kiermaier has found a new home in Toronto, and will take over center field for George Springer. My guess is Kiermaier will probably only start against righties, with Springer filling the void in center when Kiermaier is out of the lineup. Cavan Biggio and Danny Jansen remain valuable bench bats, with no big-time prospects likely to be called up for Toronto. There’s no doubt that losing Teoscar Hernandez hurts. While this offense can still put up runs, if George Springer goes down the elite production of the lineup could potentially falter. Don’t be surprised if Toronto adds another bat at the trade deadline in hopes of adding a little more depth and production to the lineup.

The starting rotation has finally reached its peak. After an investment of over $420 million in their starting rotation over the last four offseasons, Toronto has transformed this group into a World Series-caliber starting rotation. Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah will lead this rotation, both coming off stellar seasons. Gausman had a career year, leading all AL starters in FIP (2.38) and WAR (5.7). Manoah built on his incredible rookie season, earning his first All-Star appearance while finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. Manoah posted a 2.24 ERA over 196 innings of work, giving him the second-lowest ERA of an AL pitcher in an age 24 season or younger. It was a disappointing year for Jose Berrios, who received a seven-year, $131 million extension last offseason. While Berrios had occasional quality starts, he was arguably the most disappointing starter last season. He finished with a 5.23 ERA over 172 innings, with Toronto foregoing to start him in the postseason. While I’d like to think Berrios is just too good to have back-to-back awful seasons, he looked terrible in his WBC classic start last Sunday. I hate to be this pessimistic, but is Berrios just not very good anymore? He’ll have to prove otherwise this season. Chris Bassitt was the marquee free agent signing for Toronto, with Toronto hoping Bassitt is the final piece to complete this elite rotation. The righty placed in as the #3 starter in a strong Mets rotation, earning a playoff start in their series against the padres. With Ross Stripling signing with San Francisco, Yusei Kukuchi and Mitch White are options at the five spot, with White likely starting the year on the injured list. Overall, this is a really deep rotation with two legit Cy Young candidates. If Berrios can return to elite form, this could be the best rotation in baseball.

The Blue Jays bullpen features a plethora of right-handers who can throw heat. Jordan Romano remains the closer, posting a 2.11 ERA with 36 saves that earned him his first All-Star appearance. Both Anthony Bass and newly acquired Eric Swanson had sub-two ERAs last season, and are key pieces to help set up Romano in the ninth this year. Former Yankees reliever Chad Greene joined Toronto on a two-year deal this offseason, adding further depth to this well-rounded group. Former top prospect Nate Pearson will look to have his first healthy season, sitting at 98 mph in spring training with some command issues. Regardless, this is a deep bullpen with plenty of live arms.

Overall, I think Toronto is a serious AL contender, one is bat away from being a top team in the American League. Can Toronto put all the pieces together and win the best division in baseball? Only time will tell.

AL East preview: 1. New York Yankees

After getting swept by the Astros in the ALCS, it was clear GM Brian Cashman needed to make a splash in free agency if he wanted New York to overtake Houston as the best time in the American League. Cashman made some big moves, resigning Aaron Judge and bringing in Carlos Rodon to join the starting rotation. Can the Yankees finally win an American League pennant, while also defending their AL East title?

Re-signing Judge was a major victory for the franchise. Judge will serve as the 16th captain in franchise history, and will hope to lead this lineup to its first World Series trip in 14 years. While Judge is an incredible offensive piece for this lineup, he can only do so much to make up for the offensive holes that exist within this lineup. To the dismay of many fans, Aaron Hicks will start in left field. Hicks mightily struggled at the plate last season, virtually looking like an offensive black hole the last few seasons. I’m a big fan of Jose Trevino and the elite defense he brings to the diamond. After dumping Gary Sanchez, we saw how much better this team was with strong defensive catcher like Trevino. However, we can’t ignore his offensive struggles. The All-Star had a respectable .248/11 HR slash during the regular season, but struggled mightily in the postseason hitting .045 in 22 at-bats. Then there’s the dilemma at shortstop. Who will start this season? Will it be Isaiah Kiner-Falefa who is unable to hit for power? Or will it be the rookie Oswald Peraza? Potential AL ROY candidate Anthony Volpe is an option too. I think just about every baseball fan is excited to see if the #5 overall prospect lives up to the hype. After these three positions along with Judge were left with Josh Donaldson, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. Is this really a World Series-caliber lineup? It’s something that certainly needs to be questioned moving forward. Undeniably, it’s a lineup that could have a ton of potential holes offensively.

While the lineup has its weak spots, the rotation is just about the best it’s ever been. After signing Carlos Rodon in the offseason, the Yankees now arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball. They now have a lethal top three highlighted by Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes Jr. and Rodon. Cortes Jr. broke out last season, using a multitude of arm slots and wind-ups to fool hitters. Luis Severino is the number four starter on this team. Wow. While Severino has been injury-prone most of his career, he’s undoubtedly an elite starter when healthy. Cole is still searching for his first Cy Young award, a fact that is quite hard to believe. Cole will lead this juggernaut rotation, currently sitting with the second-highest AL Cy Young odds behind Jacob deGrom. Can Frankie Montas turn it around? Before being traded to New York at the deadline, he was a really valuable starter for Oakland Athletics. Since he’s come to New York, he’s been nothing short of a disaster. He’ll start the first few weeks on the injured list, still recovering from shoulder problems. If he continues to struggle, the Yankees will fall back on Domingo German, Luis Gil and Deivi Garcia for additional depth. Regardless, German or Montas is probably the best five starter paired against any other rotation.

The bullpen is incredibly strong, with Michael King fully healthy from the broken elbow he suffered late last season. King, along Clay Holmes, proved to be an unstoppable eighth- and ninth-inning combo during the regular season. Both have a sinker that sits around 97 mph that is virtually unhittable for right-handed hitters. Wandy Peralta is the main lefty out of this pen, beating out Aroldis Chapman, tossing an impressive 2.72 ERA in 56 innings.

With Harrison Bader on the injured list, Hicks in left, and question marks at shortstop, hopefully New York’s loaded farm system can fill the void of these potential weak spots. Not to mention, Cashman is an ambitious GM who will make trades if this team is truly championship caliber. I’m quite interested to see if the Yankees can overtake Houston as the top team in the American League.