Call to the pen
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MLB division preview and predictions: AL East

By Jack McKenney

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 22: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees reacts after his double against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 22, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 22: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the New York Yankees reacts after his double against the Houston Astros during the fourth inning in game three of the American League Championship Series at Yankee Stadium on October 22, 2022 in New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) /
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Enrique Hernandez of the Boston Red Sox. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Enrique Hernandez of the Boston Red Sox. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

AL East preview: 4. Boston Red Sox

2022 was a tumultuous year for Boston. GM Chaim Bloom refused to sell at the deadline, only for the team to record its second last-place AL East finish in just three seasons. While Boston spent a lot of money over the offseason, many of these moves were overshadowed by the loss of franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Offensively, Bogaerts is the most consistent shortstop in the MLB since 2018, averaging a 133 wRC+ over that span, leading all shortstops. The team also saw JD Martinez depart to the Dodgers, leaving much of the offensive production falling on the hands of franchise third baseman Rafael Devers.

Devers is likely due for another monster season, coming off a career-year batting .295 with 27 homers. While we know Devers is in line for another fantastic season, the production around him is strongly in question. Masataka Yoshida was Boston’s biggest signing over the offseason, a Japanese phenom who batted .336 with 21 homers last season with the Orix Buffaloes (NPBL). The 5-foot-8 lefty bat will likely hit leadoff this season, with fans eager to see if he can replicate this elite stat-line over the course of the season. So far he’s been raking in the World Baseball Classic alongside fellow Japanese teammate Shohei Ohtani. Alex Verdugo and Adam Duvall will join Yoshida in the outfield, with Verdugo anxious to have a strong 2023 season. Kiké Hernandez will take over at shortstop, determined to lead this team to the postseason in his new everyday shortstop role. “We’ll talk in October. We’ll talk in November. Watch me.” Hernandez clearly has something to prove coming into 2023. Can veteran Justin Turner still hit at the top of the lineup for a playoff team? He’s certainly done it over the past few seasons for Los Angeles, but will need to do it again if the Red Sox are interested in sniffing playoff contention. The Sox received devastating news that second baseman Trevor Story will be out for most of the season, likely giving Christian Arroyo the starting spot at second base. Arroyo, along with catcher Reese McGuire, are the weak spots in this lineup. All eyes will be on top prospect Triston Casas, who posted a 120 wRC+ over 95 at-bats last season. While a 120 wRC+ sounds quite promising, Casas hit .197 with a 24.4% strikeout rate. Only time will tell if Casas is truly ready to be a starting first baseman in this league.

With Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon all free agents in the offseason, it seemed as if Boston was on the precipice of acquiring a true #1 ace that this pitching staff so desperately needed. Instead, the team experienced a net-loss with starting pitchers in free agency, losing top starters Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi, while signing former Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber. The team foolishly remains adamant that Chris Sale is fully back, and will be a key facet in the rotation over the course of this season. It’s a bit ambitious for Boston to rely on Sale, who has pitched just 48 innings over the last three seasons. Brayan Bello posted strong numbers in the last two months of his rookie season, recording a 1.65 ERA in five starts during the month of September. Boston’s best young arm has been working with Pedro Martinez to improve his arsenal and mechanics over the offseason, hoping to take another big step in his 2023 campaign. Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock round out the group, with Pivetta hoping to bounce back this season. While Whitlock has undeniably good stuff, his role as a starter can be rightfully questioned. Whitlock has had arm issues in the past, and the most innings he’s ever pitched in a season is 78. It’s hard to imagine Whitlock taking on about twice the workload innings-wise without getting hurt. It looks as if James Paxton won’t be pitching anytime soon. Signed last offseason, Paxton experienced hamstring discomfort during spring training and will miss more time. The 34-year-old has yet to pitch a single inning for the team.

The bullpen is by far Boston’s greatest strength, full of multiple strong arms that can perform in high-leverage situations. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin were the two biggest additions to this group, joining John Schreiber and Tanner Houck as the elite arms within this group. Boston had 28 blown saves last season, so it’s great to see the front office finally acquiring a real closer.

The numerous question marks on this roster make it too hard bet on Boston to place the top of the AL East. The starting rotation just isn’t very good. The Red Sox still don’t have a number one ace, and are trying to piece it together with above-average arms. Bello, Sale, or Whitlock could have a big season, but I don’t see any of them becoming a true #1 starter. This team finished last place, and below .500 with Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Michael Wacha. All these names are no longer with the club. Maybe this roster could work in another division, but not the AL East. Every single team in this division is a playoff contender, and Boston just happens to have one of the worst teams amongst this group.

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