MLB division preview and predictions: AL East
AL East preview: 3. Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are becoming one of the best organizations in baseball, looking for their fifth straight playoff appearance this season. While it’s impressive they’re having this much success on such a low budget, the team still doesn’t have a World Series title to show for it. Tampa will try to bounce back from last year’s first round exit against Cleveland, boasting one of the best overall pitching staffs in Major League baseball.
Offensively, how does Tampa do it? How do they compete with a lineup that really only has three everyday players? Aside from the usual studs in the lineup like Wander “El Patron” Franco, Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, the Rays use a platoon system to revolutionize offensive production.
To explain the platoon, let’s take Bryce Harper for example. Imagine if Bryce Harper never hit against lefties? What if he only batted against righties? Instead of a .300 hitter, he’d probably be a .330 hitter with more home runs. In other words, he’s a better player when he receives more favorable matchups for offensive success. The Rays use this philosophy with their lineup every single day, with the lineup varying based on who is pitching. For example, if a righty is starting, Francisco Mejia will start over Christian Bethancourt because he is a better hitter against right-handed pitching. The favorable matchup makes him more likely to produce, and, in turn, makes him a better overall player. Because of this everyday rotation within the lineup, players stay fresh and injuries are limited. It’s an incredible way to construct a lineup, revolutionizing the offensive production of otherwise average players. While this strategy has worked in the regular season, the bats went cold in the postseason. Tampa scored just one run in 24 innings, with the sole run coming off a Jose Siri home run. While it’s entirely possible the bats just slumped, it does make you question if Tampa’s platooning system can work against elite postseason pitching.
The rotation will start off short-handed, with Tyler Glasnow suffering an oblique injury at the start of spring training. While temporarily losing Glasnow is a hit, this rotation is still very equipped to compete within the division. It all starts with Shane McClanahan, who truly solidified himself as a number one starter last season. McClanahan posted a 2.54 ERA with a 10.5 K/9 over 166 innings, finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. Newly extended Jeffery Springs will be a key part of this rotation, a lefty who has thoroughly improved under this Tampa Bay coaching staff. Springs came over in a trade from Boston following a 2020 season where he posted an abysmal 7.08 ERA. Two years later, Springs has found his stride in Tampa, posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 innings last year. Springs is yet another Rays success story. Analytics, pitch strategy, and coaching through the Tampa staff has turned himself into a notable starter in this league. Drew Rasmussen is another trade acquisition, coming from Milwaukee in the Willy Adames trade. Like most Rays pitchers, Rasmussen is a unique case for a starter. He doesn’t usually go deep into games like a conventional starter, but is very effective when facing the lineup once or twice through the order. Establishing the cutter/fastball combo is what truly made Rasmussen elite last season. The two pitch values combined for 19.2 runs above average, making it one of the best pitch combos in the game. The addition of Zach Eflin makes this group truly formidable. Eflin signed to a three-year, $40 million contract over this offseason, bringing plenty of playoff experience to the rotation. The 28-year-old pitched key innings for Philadelphia in the playoffs, posting a respectable 3.38 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 10-plus innings during their postseason run. By all means, Eflin is overqualified as a number five option … even for a playoff-contending team. However, Eflin will start in the four spot with Glasnow out for the foreseeable future. It looks as if Luis Patino will slide into the five spot for the time being until Glasnow is fully healthy. Taj Bradley is another arm to monitor. The 20th-ranked prospect had a 2.57 ERA in the minors in 2022 and expected to be called up sometime this season.
If you follow Tampa, you know how instrumental their bullpen is to the pitching staff. Once again, Tampa enters 2023 with a deep, talented group that will help contribute to another winning season. Pete Fairbanks was signed to a three-year extension this offseason, a flame-throwing righty with plenty of high-leverage experience. Fairbanks, along with Jason Adam, Ryan Thompson and Andrew Kittredge, are all elite right-handed relievers who make up this deep bullpen. As for the lefties, Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche are the best options who can matchup with just about anyone.
I have no doubt that Tampa will make the playoffs and win 88-plus games, but is it premature of me to bring up my doubts of how poorly the lineup struggled last October? Against Cleveland, Tampa just simply couldn’t hit. The bats went cold. The lineup hasn’t improved much and you can’t help but worry the same thing may happen again this year.