MLB division preview and predictions: AL East

It’s the best division in baseball, with five teams residing in the AL East that are all capable of making the postseason. Can the New York Yankees defend their division title? Can the Boston Red Sox secure a Wild Card spot despite losing Xander Bogaerts?

Let’s answer these questions and more take a look out the AL East shapes out for the 2023 season.

AL East preview: 5. Baltimore Orioles

After a surprisingly strong performance last season, the Orioles were expected to be heavy players in this year’s deep free agent class. It was GM Mike Elias who claimed the Birds would have a “significant escalation in payroll” over the offseason, thus leading to murmurs that the Orioles were great fits for big names like Trea Turner and Carlos Rodon. However, Baltimore spent just $18 million on two players, leaving a whiff of frustration amongst Oriole nation. Owner John Angelos doubled down on the lack of spending. He believed the organization “overachieved and overperformed” last season, and is still unsure when payroll will significantly escalate. How convenient.

Regardless, Baltimore comes into the season with some promising young talent, making them yet another tough out in the AL East. Catcher Adley Rutschman is truly the real deal. The number one overall pick is now the face of the franchise after a sensational rookie season, and will look to lead this lineup along with leadoff hitter Cedric Mullins. After having a 30 HR/.307 slash in 2021, Mullins regressed a bit last season, still posting above average offense numbers (106 wRC+). Mullins and Rutschmann are the two best bats in this lineup, and will have to put in big numbers if Baltimore wants to contend. Gunnar Henderson is currently the number one prospect in baseball, posting a stellar 125 wRC+ slash in 132 at-bats last year. The 21-year-old is also a versatile defender, starting games at shortstop, third base and second base last season. Adam Frazier was Baltimore’s best signing over the offseason, a versatile infield defender who possesses elite contact hitting skills from the left side of the plate. While Jorge Mateo wasn’t stellar at the plate last year, he posted incredible defensive numbers from shortstop last season. He’ll likely start the year on Baltimore’s bench, offering speed and elite defense to the lineup.

The current starting rotation is what’s really holding Baltimore back. It’s simply not good enough for a playoff contender. It’s unclear who will start Opening Day, so let’s go through the options. Righty Dean Kremer is certainly in contention after positing a strong 3.23 ERA in 21 starts last season. John Means will finally rejoin this starting group, a key lefty starter who has always been a solid option. Means pitched just eight innings before requiring season-ending Tommy John surgery. Cole Irvin is another candidate, another lefty who was acquired from the A’s in the offseason, posting a sub-four ERA last season. Kyle Bradish and Kyle Gibson round out the group, who are similar average righty starters who can eat up innings. Overall, this is a disappointing starting rotation for a team that has a chance to contend. The group lacks an ace, and is really just filled with above-average pieces one through five. Even if Baltimore manages to squeak into the postseason, this current rotation would get obliterated in a five-game playoff series. Sooner or later, Baltimore must acquire elite starting pitching if they wish to be true contenders, whether it’s through the farm or trades/free agency.

We also have to keep in mind Baltimore does have some really special young arms we could see this season. Grayson Rodriguez (#7 overall) and DL Hall (#97 overall) are both top 100 arms that we’ve been hearing about for a while now. It’s gonna be really exciting to see the success these guys have at the big league level after several years of development.

The bullpen will be led by Felix Bautista, a big flame-throwing righty who took over the closing role after All-Star Jorge Lopez was traded to Minnesota. Bautista posted an elite 2.19 ERA over 65.2 innings, and is certainly an arm to monitor for an all star appearance this season.

Do I think Baltimore overperformed a bit last season? Sure, but last season this team battled almost every game, proving they are no longer a bottom-shelf team that won’t win more than 65 games. The pieces are starting to come together in Baltimore. Finally, after years and years of tanking we’re watching the talented farm system Elias has been building. Sooner or later, this team will consistently compete for a playoff spot year after year. At this point, it’s just a matter of when.

AL East preview: 4. Boston Red Sox

2022 was a tumultuous year for Boston. GM Chaim Bloom refused to sell at the deadline, only for the team to record its second last-place AL East finish in just three seasons. While Boston spent a lot of money over the offseason, many of these moves were overshadowed by the loss of franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Offensively, Bogaerts is the most consistent shortstop in the MLB since 2018, averaging a 133 wRC+ over that span, leading all shortstops. The team also saw JD Martinez depart to the Dodgers, leaving much of the offensive production falling on the hands of franchise third baseman Rafael Devers.

Devers is likely due for another monster season, coming off a career-year batting .295 with 27 homers. While we know Devers is in line for another fantastic season, the production around him is strongly in question. Masataka Yoshida was Boston’s biggest signing over the offseason, a Japanese phenom who batted .336 with 21 homers last season with the Orix Buffaloes (NPBL). The 5-foot-8 lefty bat will likely hit leadoff this season, with fans eager to see if he can replicate this elite stat-line over the course of the season. So far he’s been raking in the World Baseball Classic alongside fellow Japanese teammate Shohei Ohtani. Alex Verdugo and Adam Duvall will join Yoshida in the outfield, with Verdugo anxious to have a strong 2023 season. Kiké Hernandez will take over at shortstop, determined to lead this team to the postseason in his new everyday shortstop role. “We’ll talk in October. We’ll talk in November. Watch me.” Hernandez clearly has something to prove coming into 2023. Can veteran Justin Turner still hit at the top of the lineup for a playoff team? He’s certainly done it over the past few seasons for Los Angeles, but will need to do it again if the Red Sox are interested in sniffing playoff contention. The Sox received devastating news that second baseman Trevor Story will be out for most of the season, likely giving Christian Arroyo the starting spot at second base. Arroyo, along with catcher Reese McGuire, are the weak spots in this lineup. All eyes will be on top prospect Triston Casas, who posted a 120 wRC+ over 95 at-bats last season. While a 120 wRC+ sounds quite promising, Casas hit .197 with a 24.4% strikeout rate. Only time will tell if Casas is truly ready to be a starting first baseman in this league.

With Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon all free agents in the offseason, it seemed as if Boston was on the precipice of acquiring a true #1 ace that this pitching staff so desperately needed. Instead, the team experienced a net-loss with starting pitchers in free agency, losing top starters Michael Wacha and Nathan Eovaldi, while signing former Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber. The team foolishly remains adamant that Chris Sale is fully back, and will be a key facet in the rotation over the course of this season. It’s a bit ambitious for Boston to rely on Sale, who has pitched just 48 innings over the last three seasons. Brayan Bello posted strong numbers in the last two months of his rookie season, recording a 1.65 ERA in five starts during the month of September. Boston’s best young arm has been working with Pedro Martinez to improve his arsenal and mechanics over the offseason, hoping to take another big step in his 2023 campaign. Nick Pivetta and Garrett Whitlock round out the group, with Pivetta hoping to bounce back this season. While Whitlock has undeniably good stuff, his role as a starter can be rightfully questioned. Whitlock has had arm issues in the past, and the most innings he’s ever pitched in a season is 78. It’s hard to imagine Whitlock taking on about twice the workload innings-wise without getting hurt. It looks as if James Paxton won’t be pitching anytime soon. Signed last offseason, Paxton experienced hamstring discomfort during spring training and will miss more time. The 34-year-old has yet to pitch a single inning for the team.

The bullpen is by far Boston’s greatest strength, full of multiple strong arms that can perform in high-leverage situations. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin were the two biggest additions to this group, joining John Schreiber and Tanner Houck as the elite arms within this group. Boston had 28 blown saves last season, so it’s great to see the front office finally acquiring a real closer.

The numerous question marks on this roster make it too hard bet on Boston to place the top of the AL East. The starting rotation just isn’t very good. The Red Sox still don’t have a number one ace, and are trying to piece it together with above-average arms. Bello, Sale, or Whitlock could have a big season, but I don’t see any of them becoming a true #1 starter. This team finished last place, and below .500 with Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Michael Wacha. All these names are no longer with the club. Maybe this roster could work in another division, but not the AL East. Every single team in this division is a playoff contender, and Boston just happens to have one of the worst teams amongst this group.

AL East preview: 3. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are becoming one of the best organizations in baseball, looking for their fifth straight playoff appearance this season. While it’s impressive they’re having this much success on such a low budget, the team still doesn’t have a World Series title to show for it. Tampa will try to bounce back from last year’s first round exit against Cleveland, boasting one of the best overall pitching staffs in Major League baseball.

Offensively, how does Tampa do it? How do they compete with a lineup that really only has three everyday players? Aside from the usual studs in the lineup like Wander “El Patron” Franco, Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz, the Rays use a platoon system to revolutionize offensive production.

To explain the platoon, let’s take Bryce Harper for example. Imagine if Bryce Harper never hit against lefties? What if he only batted against righties? Instead of a .300 hitter, he’d probably be a .330 hitter with more home runs. In other words, he’s a better player when he receives more favorable matchups for offensive success. The Rays use this philosophy with their lineup every single day, with the lineup varying based on who is pitching. For example, if a righty is starting, Francisco Mejia will start over Christian Bethancourt because he is a better hitter against right-handed pitching. The favorable matchup makes him more likely to produce, and, in turn, makes him a better overall player. Because of this everyday rotation within the lineup, players stay fresh and injuries are limited. It’s an incredible way to construct a lineup, revolutionizing the offensive production of otherwise average players. While this strategy has worked in the regular season, the bats went cold in the postseason. Tampa scored just one run in 24 innings, with the sole run coming off a Jose Siri home run. While it’s entirely possible the bats just slumped, it does make you question if Tampa’s platooning system can work against elite postseason pitching.

The rotation will start off short-handed, with Tyler Glasnow suffering an oblique injury at the start of spring training. While temporarily losing Glasnow is a hit, this rotation is still very equipped to compete within the division. It all starts with Shane McClanahan, who truly solidified himself as a number one starter last season. McClanahan posted a 2.54 ERA with a 10.5 K/9 over 166 innings, finishing sixth in Cy Young voting. Newly extended Jeffery Springs will be a key part of this rotation, a lefty who has thoroughly improved under this Tampa Bay coaching staff. Springs came over in a trade from Boston following a 2020 season where he posted an abysmal 7.08 ERA. Two years later, Springs has found his stride in Tampa, posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 innings last year. Springs is yet another Rays success story. Analytics, pitch strategy, and coaching through the Tampa staff has turned himself into a notable starter in this league. Drew Rasmussen is another trade acquisition, coming from Milwaukee in the Willy Adames trade. Like most Rays pitchers, Rasmussen is a unique case for a starter. He doesn’t usually go deep into games like a conventional starter, but is very effective when facing the lineup once or twice through the order. Establishing the cutter/fastball combo is what truly made Rasmussen elite last season. The two pitch values combined for 19.2 runs above average, making it one of the best pitch combos in the game. The addition of Zach Eflin makes this group truly formidable. Eflin signed to a three-year, $40 million contract over this offseason, bringing plenty of playoff experience to the rotation. The 28-year-old pitched key innings for Philadelphia in the playoffs, posting a respectable 3.38 ERA with 12 strikeouts over 10-plus innings during their postseason run. By all means, Eflin is overqualified as a number five option … even for a playoff-contending team. However, Eflin will start in the four spot with Glasnow out for the foreseeable future. It looks as if Luis Patino will slide into the five spot for the time being until Glasnow is fully healthy. Taj Bradley is another arm to monitor. The 20th-ranked prospect had a 2.57 ERA in the minors in 2022 and expected to be called up sometime this season.

If you follow Tampa, you know how instrumental their bullpen is to the pitching staff. Once again, Tampa enters 2023 with a deep, talented group that will help contribute to another winning season. Pete Fairbanks was signed to a three-year extension this offseason, a flame-throwing righty with plenty of high-leverage experience. Fairbanks, along with Jason Adam, Ryan Thompson and Andrew Kittredge, are all elite right-handed relievers who make up this deep bullpen. As for the lefties, Garrett Cleavinger and Colin Poche are the best options who can matchup with just about anyone.

I have no doubt that Tampa will make the playoffs and win 88-plus games, but is it premature of me to bring up my doubts of how poorly the lineup struggled last October? Against Cleveland, Tampa just simply couldn’t hit. The bats went cold. The lineup hasn’t improved much and you can’t help but worry the same thing may happen again this year.

AL East preview: 2. Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto comes into 2023 with one of the best lineups in baseball, a lineup that could undeniably carry them to their first World Series in 30 years. Four-time All-Star George Springer will remain at the leadoff spot, coming off another strong offensive season. He’ll be followed by Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the two faces of the franchise. Guerrero is looking to throw his name back in the MVP conversation, currently sitting sixth in AL MVP odds. Alejandro Kirk was a pleasant surprise for Toronto last year, posting a .285/14 HR slash in his rookie campaign, earning an All-Star appearance. While he only tallied 14 homers last season, Kirk led all catchers in walks (63) and on base percentage (.372).

Any lineup that has Matt Chapman in the six or seven spot has to be pretty damn good. The three-time Gold Glover recorded his fourth season with 20+ homers, further establishing himself as one of the best two-way players in this league. Toronto gave up top 100 prospect Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to acquire utility man Daulton Varsho. The 26-year-old broke out last season, blasting 27 homers with a .235 average over 531 plate appearances. In addition to the strong power numbers, Varsho provides great defensive versatility, having the ability to play any position in the outfield, along with catching experience. Hopefully Varsho’s production can fill the void of slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez, whom the Blue Jays traded to Seattle over the offseason. Whit Merrifield is the other utility man in this lineup, who Toronto acquired at last year’s trade deadline. Merrifield will compete with All-Star Santiago Espinal for the starting second baseman spot. Kevin Kiermaier has found a new home in Toronto, and will take over center field for George Springer. My guess is Kiermaier will probably only start against righties, with Springer filling the void in center when Kiermaier is out of the lineup. Cavan Biggio and Danny Jansen remain valuable bench bats, with no big-time prospects likely to be called up for Toronto. There’s no doubt that losing Teoscar Hernandez hurts. While this offense can still put up runs, if George Springer goes down the elite production of the lineup could potentially falter. Don’t be surprised if Toronto adds another bat at the trade deadline in hopes of adding a little more depth and production to the lineup.

The starting rotation has finally reached its peak. After an investment of over $420 million in their starting rotation over the last four offseasons, Toronto has transformed this group into a World Series-caliber starting rotation. Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah will lead this rotation, both coming off stellar seasons. Gausman had a career year, leading all AL starters in FIP (2.38) and WAR (5.7). Manoah built on his incredible rookie season, earning his first All-Star appearance while finishing third in AL Cy Young voting. Manoah posted a 2.24 ERA over 196 innings of work, giving him the second-lowest ERA of an AL pitcher in an age 24 season or younger. It was a disappointing year for Jose Berrios, who received a seven-year, $131 million extension last offseason. While Berrios had occasional quality starts, he was arguably the most disappointing starter last season. He finished with a 5.23 ERA over 172 innings, with Toronto foregoing to start him in the postseason. While I’d like to think Berrios is just too good to have back-to-back awful seasons, he looked terrible in his WBC classic start last Sunday. I hate to be this pessimistic, but is Berrios just not very good anymore? He’ll have to prove otherwise this season. Chris Bassitt was the marquee free agent signing for Toronto, with Toronto hoping Bassitt is the final piece to complete this elite rotation. The righty placed in as the #3 starter in a strong Mets rotation, earning a playoff start in their series against the padres. With Ross Stripling signing with San Francisco, Yusei Kukuchi and Mitch White are options at the five spot, with White likely starting the year on the injured list. Overall, this is a really deep rotation with two legit Cy Young candidates. If Berrios can return to elite form, this could be the best rotation in baseball.

The Blue Jays bullpen features a plethora of right-handers who can throw heat. Jordan Romano remains the closer, posting a 2.11 ERA with 36 saves that earned him his first All-Star appearance. Both Anthony Bass and newly acquired Eric Swanson had sub-two ERAs last season, and are key pieces to help set up Romano in the ninth this year. Former Yankees reliever Chad Greene joined Toronto on a two-year deal this offseason, adding further depth to this well-rounded group. Former top prospect Nate Pearson will look to have his first healthy season, sitting at 98 mph in spring training with some command issues. Regardless, this is a deep bullpen with plenty of live arms.

Overall, I think Toronto is a serious AL contender, one is bat away from being a top team in the American League. Can Toronto put all the pieces together and win the best division in baseball? Only time will tell.