Bold predictions: Picking MLB’s major award winners in 2023

One of the entertaining aspects of springtime within the baseball world is predicting not only what MLB teams are going to do well in the upcoming season, but also what individuals will win different year-end awards.

Let’s dive into the four main categories of MLB awards: Most Valuable Player, Cy Young, Rookie of the Year, and Manager of the Year.

Bold predictions for year-end MLB awards 2023

American League Most Valuable Player: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Just a few short years ago, selecting Mike Trout to win the American League MVP award would have been considered an ultra-safe pick and nowhere close to a bold prediction. Fast forward to 2023 and many people don’t even consider him the MVP of his own team much less the entire league. Dual threat Shohei Ohtani won the award in 2021 and then he was only beaten out in 2022 because of Aaron Judge’s record-breaking season.

Ohtani and Judge are the odds-on favorites to take the title this year, but Trout is poised to return to his dominate form. Injuries, not opponents’ pitchers, have been the only thing that has been able to slow down Trout. He is healthy and the way he is swinging it in the World Baseball Classic, he looks ready to flourish yet again this season.

Trout is a 10-time All-Star, nine-time Silver Slugger, was Rookie of the Year in 2012, has been named AL MVP three times, and has finished second in the MVP race four other times and in the top 5 an additional two times. In fact, the only two times that Trout has finished outside the top 5 in the MVP race in his career was the past two seasons. In 2021, injuries reduced his season to only 36 games. Then last season, time on the injured list with a back issue limited him to 119 games, but he still managed to hit 40 home runs, slash .283/.369/.630, with a wRC+ of 176. This effort was strong enough to place him eighth in the MVP voting.

Mike Trout won’t be 32 years old until August 7. He may be past his prime as a player, but with his efficient, compact swing, Trout has the ability to continue to rack up historic numbers. This season will be another one of those fun to watch seasons for one of the greatest to ever play the game.

National League Most Valuable Player: Juan Soto, San Diego Padres

President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller has taken several chances over the last few seasons to build the San Diego Padres into a contender. None of these moves have been bigger than trading the farm for Juan Soto. Soto started out his career at 19 by finishing second to Ronald Acuña Jr. in the battle for 2018 NL Rookie of the Year. Then, the very next year, Soto was thrust onto the national stage during the Washington Nationals’ magical championship season.

For Soto’s standards, he struggled last year, and yet he was still an All-Star and won the Silver Slugger Award. His down season amounted to slashing .242/.401/.452, hitting 27 home runs, having a wRC+ of 145, and putting up 3.8 fWAR. Most hitters would call this a career year, and yet for the young Soto, it was a down season.

Baseball is so incredibly mental, even for the best players. With the possible trade looming, and then ultimately coming to pass last season, there is no doubt that the added pressure of the unknown was weighing on Soto. With that stressor eliminated, he is primed for a great season in his new brown and yellow Padres’ uniform in 2023.

American League Cy Young: Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays

Shane McClanahan isn’t the most well-known Shane pitching in the American League (that would be 2020 Cy Young winner Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Gurdians) or the most well-known pitcher on his own team (that would be the electric, but oft-injured Tyler Glasnow). McClanahan does however have exceptional stuff and he continues to get better at his craft.

He burst on the MLB scene in 2021 and pitched great during his rookie campaign. Any thoughts of a sophomore slump were quickly put to rest as McClanahan not only lit up the radar gun but posted ace level numbers throughout the entire 2022 season. Only a slight neck issue late in the season kept him from putting up even greater statistics.

In 28 games started in 2022, McClanahan pitched 166.1 innings, struck out 194, walked only 38, and posted a 2.54 ERA along with a 0.93 WHIP. His batting average against was .194 for all batters and an even more impressive .193 against right-handed hitters despite himself being left-handed.

McClanahan played around with his pitch mix some last year and relied more on his split finger, changeup, and curveball more and a little less on his fastball that sits at 96 mph and his power slider. This shows that he is already tapping into being a pitcher and not just a thrower. The Rays expect McClanahan to be the frontline starter on a talented team. This could be the recipe for greater success and allow McClanahan to bring home a Cy Young award at the end of the season.

American League Rookie of the Year: Hunter Brown, Houston Astros

Speaking of Justin Verlander, Hunter Brown has grown up emulating the hard throwing righty his entire life. He hopes to add American League Rookie of the Year to the similarities at the end of the season (JV won the award in 2006).

Drafted in the fifth round in 2019 out of Wayne State University (Detroit, Mich.), Brown has proven himself every step of the way to the big leagues. He had a superb 2022 season for the Triple-A Sugar Land Space Cowboys culminated with a cup of coffee with the Houston Astros.

For Sugar Land, Brown pitched 106 innings, struck out 134, walked 45, had an ERA of 2.55, and a 1.085 WHIP. In all be it a small sample size, Brown impressed in his time with the big club. He pitched 20.1 innings, struck out 22, walked seven, had an ERA of 0.89, and a 1.082 WHIP.

With Verlander now gone from the Astros rotation and on to the New York Mets, Brown will be filling one of the starting positions. The stage is set for the protege to step forward and shine.

National League Rookie of the Year: Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

In full disclosure, if I felt that St. Louis Cardinals’ prospect Jordan Walker would be in MLB all season, I would have chosen him for this award. Reality is, the young Walker has yet to even play at the Triple-A level, much less the big-league level. He will be in St. Louis very soon, and when he gets there, he will rake.

But enough about someone that I didn’t even select for this prediction. The selection here is Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder Corbin Carroll, and it was a pretty easy choice. Carroll may be small, but he is awfully wiry. Standing at 5-foot-10 and listed at 165 pounds, the left-handed center fielder can flat out run. In fact, Baseball Savant lists Carroll in the 100th percentile in sprint speed.

Carroll will not only be patrolling center field for the D-backs, but is slated to be their leadoff hitter as well. This will give him plenty of opportunities to show off his bat skills and wreak havoc on the bases.

Corbin had the opportunity to play in 32 games late last season for Arizona. In those games, he slashed an impressive .260/.330/.500, slugged four home runs, and had a 130 wRC+. Those numbers along with the overall talent that he is, led the Diamondbacks to signing the 22-year-old to an eight-year, $111 million contract (with a 2031 team option) last weekend. With the money part taken care of, Carroll can relax and enjoy the ride. A ride that should take him to be Rookie of the Year in the National League for 2023.

American League Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers’ new skipper isn’t new to baseball at all. Bochy spent nine seasons as a backup catcher in the majors before joining the coaching ranks. As a manager, he has managed 4,032 games (2,003 wins and 2,029 losses). He also won the National League Manager of the Year award in 1996 while with the San Diego Padres and greater still led his San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles in 2010, 2012, and again in 2014.

After a three-year retirement from the game, Bochy is ready to get back in the dugout and compete at the highest level. He inherits a team that is on the rise. Part of that is because of the depths that the Rangers had descended to, but also because of the rebuilding efforts of GM Chris Young.

After a dismal 2021 season, the Texas Rangers looked to improve greatly last year. There was tremendous improvement everywhere but, in the win-loss, columns. An astounding 35 one-run losses led to a putrid 68-94 record in 2022.

Bochy’s presence is going to help the Rangers in 2023. The revamping of the starting rotation, headlined by Jacob deGrom, will help even more. Bochy is in a great spot to take the Rangers to a much better season and perhaps even contend for a Wild Card spot. Rangers fans will be happy with Bochy winning the Manager of the Year award in 2023, but will be even happier in the near future if he can get that elusive, franchise first World Series ring.

National League Manager of the Year: Skip Schumaker, Miami Marlins

With a name like Skip Schumaker (his given name is Jared Michael), it seems like he was destined to be a manager someday. Schumaker played 11 seasons in the big leagues and has most recently been the bench coach of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Miami Marlins hired Schumaker to replace Don Mattingly as manager after the former Yankee star was let go at the end of last season.

This bold prediction has to do with two main factors: Schumaker growing up in the Cardinals organization and the team that he is going to be managing. Schumaker not only played most of his career in the wining traditions of St. Louis, but he has also been the bench coach for the past two seasons. Winning is something that the Cardinals do well, and Schumaker has been a part of that culture.

The Marlin team that Skip is taking over, isn’t the same team that struggled to a 69-93 record in 2022. While the pitching staff was, and still is one of the best in the league, the offense ranked toward the bottom of MLB. Only the Oakland A’s (568) and Detroit Tigers (557) scored fewer runs than the Marlins (586) last year.

With the additions of batting champion Luis Arraez and Jean Segura, and hopefully a healthy season from the dynamic Jazz Chisholm, the Marlins should be much improved at the plate. Playing in the NL East is a challenge, but the balanced schedule should help the Marlins this year to get Schumaker an award in his first season at the helm.