Major League Baseball has instituted some new rules this season, with two of those rule changes being the pair of attempts to pick off runners and the use of larger bases. These changes are already having a massive effect on MLB spring training games.
MLB rule changes are increasing stolen bases
The MLB rule changes have stolen bases going way up. The 2022 season saw a considerable increase in successful steals to attempts. The reason for this was simple — a decrease in attempts combined with advanced analytics. This spring, we are seeing a dramatic increase in attempts and a much larger success rate.
According to MLB.com, stolen base attempts are at an all-time high. As of March 8, there have been an average of 2.30 stolen base attempts per game this spring, and the success rate on those stolen bases has been 80.8 percent. Some analysts predict we will see someone break 60 stolen bases this year, so let’s look at who could lead the MLB in swiped bags this year.
Bryce Johnson is a thief
Johnson is a fearless baserunner. This spring, heading into Tuesday’s action, he has already asserted himself as a threat on first base with 11 stolen bases. In addition, Johnson has robbed minor league pitchers an average of 29 times over his last four seasons. He will likely be the San Francisco Giants leadoff man very soon and looks to be the most prolific thief the Bay Area has seen since Rickey Henderson.
Trea Turner will be an MVP candidate now
Trea Turner is red hot in the World Baseball Classic right now after carrying the United States to the championship game. He is also a well-known thief, leading MLB with 122 stolen bases since 2018.
Turner said in an interview on MLB Network, “I feel like the pressure’s on to steal — 60, 70 bases, something ridiculous. But for me, I always want to score runs, so however many stolen bases we need as a team to score those runs, that’s important to me.”
That many stolen bases added to an already potent Philadelphia Phillies offense could mean we have a pre-Opening Day favorite for the National League MVP.
Randy Arozarena will get away with it more often
Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays had 32 stolen bases in 2022. However, he was caught stealing a league-high 12 times. With an increased green light and a much higher success rate, 50 stolen bases will be a reality.
Randy Arozarena is the first player to steal home in a #postseason game since 2016 😳 pic.twitter.com/a9Qvf8Bgfg
— MLB (@MLB) October 8, 2021
Potentially a lot more runs for the Marlins
Finally, Jon Berti of the Miami Marlins attempted 46 steals last year. He is fast, gets on base frequently, and will be batting ahead of fellow speedster Jazz Chisholm, so look for many stolen bases and a significant increase in his season runs total.
Run Rickey Run
The table is set for a very high-scoring season, and that’s what Major League Baseball’s intentions are. It is likely we will get some high-scoring games with exciting base-running action. I can’t help to think about the all-time great thieves. How many more bases would Rickey Henderson have stolen had pitchers not been able to keep him honest with a pickoff attempt? And the poor catchers, who is thinking about them?