MLB division preview and predictions: NL East

Widely regarded as one the best divisions in the league, the NL East comes into 2023 with three World Series-contending teams. It will be a really fun race to follow, with last year’s title race coming down to the wire between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets.

Let’s break down our NL East predictions for the 2023 season.

NL East preview: 5. Washington Nationals

Oh how the mighty have fallen. The 2019 World Series champs dealt away Juan Soto for a record haul at last year’s deadline, further accelerating the long rebuild that awaits. While another tough losing season is on the brink, Washington has some exciting young pieces that will hopefully be key in future championship runs down the road.

Josiah Gray and Mackenzie Gore are the two young arms highlighting this rotation, both looking to make big leaps this year. After two seasons of pitching at the big league level, it’s time for Josiah Gray to take that big step forward and become a top of the rotation pitcher he was proclaimed to be. Gray has maintained a 5-plus ERA in both big league seasons, hoping to significantly trim this number in 2023. Mackenzie Gore was a key piece in the Juan Soto trade, but he hasn’t looked great in his recent rehab starts this spring. After giving up five runs to Houston on Friday, Gore’s spring ERA has risen to 7.07. The 24-year-old has been regarded as a top prospect for years, surely possessing the arsenal to become a quality starter in this league. Hopefully Gore can turn it around or else the Nats might have the worst rotation in major league baseball. Washington received devastating news that Cade Cavalli will miss the 2023 season, requiring Tommy John surgery. Out of this group of young arms, I believe Cavalli has the best chance to become an ace, having three potential plus pitches in his arsenal. He has a fastball with movement that averages around 96 mph, a nasty changeup, and a curveball that almost moves like a 12-6. It’s a real shame we won’t get to see the #58 overall prospect pitch this season. Patrick Corbin will take the ball on Opening Day, hoping to avoid the disastrous numbers he’s posted over the past two seasons. Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl will eat up innings too, with Washington likely hoping to trade both at the deadline for young talent.

Joey Meneses highlights a lineup composed of developing prospects and veterans. CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, and Jeter Downs highlight the young core that Washington hopes will thrive in this upcoming season. The Nationals are looking for Abrams to become a more consistent contact hitter, hopefully serving as their leadoff hitter in the lineup for years to come. That, paired with his elite defense, will make him a worthy acquisition in the Juan Soto trade. The Nationals clearly believe in catcher Keibert Ruiz, who received an eight-year, $50 million extension over the offseason. The 24-year-old put up a serviceable .251/7HR slash last season, with many years of growth left ahead. Lane Thomas is quietly panning out to be a pleasant surprise, putting up a respectable .246/17HR slash in the outfield last season. The 27-year-old brings great defensive versatility to the outfield, logging games in all three spots last season. Jeter Downs has been a top-rated prospect for years, and it came as a surprise to many Red Sox fans when he was released over the offseason. Downs, often regarded as the centerpiece of the Mookie Betts trade, went 6-for-39 with one homer in his call-up with Boston last year. While these numbers aren’t stellar, it’s quite foolish for any team to judge a 24-year-old’s value on just 39 MLB at-bats. With Washington, Downs will have ample opportunities to further develop his talent, with the team’s main priority in development. The elite defense of Victor Robles will keep him in center field, with Robles still trying to find consistency at the plate. Robles is entering his fifth season at just 25 years old. The Nats will cross their fingers and hope either Dominic Smith, Corey Dickerson or Jeimer Candelario can become a valuable asset at the trade deadline. It’d be great to cash on some prospects on one of these vets, all of whom are on one-year deals. Speaking of the deadline, I think it’s very likely that Joey Meneses could be a name come late July. The soon to be 31-year-old has no use being on the team that is still years from contention, and could command a huge prospect haul if he replicates something close to the 156 wRC+ slash he put up last season.

While the Nationals are still years away from contending, things are looking bright on the farm. Washington boasts four top 100 prospects, along with two young studs in Brady House and Jarlin Susana (whom I personally thought were snubbed from this list). Not to mention, Washington owns the second pick in this year’s entry draft. Developing and acquiring young talent will and should be Washington’s M.O. for this upcoming season.

NL East preview: 4. Miami Marlins

After adding Jean Segura and Luis Arraez to the lineup, the Marlins will look to make a playoff push while developing their young talent at the big league level. They’ll be competing in an NL East in which they clearly the fourth-best team.

While the lineup has improved, Miami will need just about everyone in the starting lineup to have a stellar year if they want to contend. More importantly, Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia will need to bounce back from poor performances last year. Soler has a player option next year, and could land a massive deal if he puts up another 40-homer season. Garrett Cooper had another strong campaign last year, posting a 115 wRC+ in 469 at-bats last year. The 31-year-old will look to replicate a similar slash, likely checking in at the four hole in this lineup. A lot of this lineup’s success will fall on Jazz Chisholm, who is coming off a spectacular 139 wRC+ slash in 241 plate appearances last year. The All-Star second baseman was named as the cover athlete for this year’s edition of MLB The Show, but still has much to prove if he wants to be ordained as a true superstar in this league. Joey Wendle and Jon Berti are great utility pieces in this lineup, providing great versatility and speed to the group. Jean Segura was Miami’s best signing over the offseason, providing them a solid veteran bat with experience at multiple infield positions. Jose Iglesias and Yuli Gurriel are two additional veterans set to join the group, hoping to provide strong depth and experience to the lineup. Miami will hope for 25-year-old Jesus Sanchez to bounce back this year after posting a lousy .214/13HR slash in 2022.

Despite dealing away Pablo Lopez in the offseason, this rotation is still young and full of potential. Reigning NL Cy Young Winner Sandy Alcantara was remarkable last season, posting a 2.28 ERA over 228 innings. Alcantara finished with six complete games, a higher total than other starting staff combined. Alcantara will look to lead an inexperienced, high-ceiling group that has a lot to prove. After posting great numbers coupled with an All-Star appearance in his rookie season, Trevor Rogers regressed heavily last season. The 25-year-old lefty posted a 5.47 ERA in 100+ innings of work, hoping to improve that mark this season. Lefty Jesus Luzardo seems to have found consistency in Miami. The former A’s top prospect posted a 3.32 ERA (3.12 FIP) in 100 innings of work, mainly thanks to his improved changeup which was 8.3 runs above average last season. Two time All-Star Johnny Cueto will join the rotation, who is currently dealing with some arm soreness after the WBC. While Cueto’s fastball hit 94 MPH in his lone WBC appearance, he did get a bit roughed up, giving up three earned runs in two innings against Puerto Rico. Cueto will bring a veteran presence to help lead and mentor this young group of arms. Edward Cabrera will likely get the last spot in this rotation, coming off a season full of interesting statistics. Over 71 innings, Cabrera posted a 3.01 ERA. On paper this is an impressive mark, but looking deeper Cabrera registered a 4.59 FIP. Cabrera’s ERA should have been a lot higher…perhaps suggesting he got very lucky. Regardless, the 25.8% strikeout rate is quite impressive for the soon-to-be 25 year old. It’s unclear when we will see young studs Max Meyer and Sixto Sanchez return, two additional powerful arms apart of this young staff. Sanchez reported to camp in great shape, hoping to compete for innings at the big league level. Sanchez hasn’t pitched since the 2020 playoffs, but is fully capable of becoming an ace. I’m really hoping we get to see him on a big league mound sometime this season.

Interestingly enough, another reason Sandy Alcantara had eight complete games last year was because the Marlins bullpen was so unreliable. Oftentimes Alcanatara would refuse to leave games because he was afraid his bullpen might blow a stellar outing. Miami addressed this issue over the offseason, bringing in three potential closing options. AJ Puk is a relatively young lefty arm who posted a strong 3.12 ERA (3.69 FIP) in 66 innings last year. JT Chargois was a reliable arm for the Rays last season, posting a 2.42 ERA in 22 innings. Matt Barnes is hoping to bounce back, coming to Miami in a trade with Boston. Hopefully one of these three relievers can establish themselves as a reliable closing option for the sake of the starting rotation.

While Luis Arraez was a great addition, analytically speaking he was the third-best hitter on a Twins team that missed the playoffs. Yet again, another offseason goes by and the Marlins lineup just still isn’t strong enough to make them a serious contender. Granted, Miami has done a great job acquiring high-ceiling talent over these past few years, but until they spent serious money or groom elite offensive production this team will be stuck at the bottom of the division for a very long time.

NL East preview: 3. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies finally edged their way into the postseason, perfecting a magical postseason run that earned them their first World Series trip since 2009. Philly refuses to back down to its competitive divisional counterparts, making more big splashes in free agency this offseason.

The Phillies finally have a franchise shortstop in Trea Turner, a position they’ve been lacking offensive production from for years. Trea Turner, along with JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber, are the most productive bats in a lineup that will be without Bryce Harper to start the season. Recovering from Tommy John, the two-time MVP hopes to return to the lineup sometime in late June. The Phillies will be without Rhys Hoskins for the season, with Hoskins suffering a torn ACL on Thursday. Hoskins was an electric player to watch in the postseason, tallying six home runs during the Phillies October run, with seemingly every homer coming in a clutch moment. This means Darick Hall will likely start at first on Opening Day, who has looked tremendous so far this  spring. Hall leads the club with five homers and a .319 average in 47 at-bats this spring. With Jean Segura and Nick Maton departing, it looks as if Bryson Stott will start at second base again this season. After gaining valuable postseason experience, the 25-year-old will look to take another big step this season. Nick Castellanos was very disappointing last season. After coming off a spectacular 2021 campaign, Castellanos posted a below average offensive slash (93 wRC+) and hit .185 in the playoffs. Luckily Philly has a deep lineup to account for struggles and injuries, with Josh Harrison, Edmundo Sosa and Didi Gregorious all strong options on the bench.

The one-two punch of Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler proved to be a deadly combo in the postseason. Possibly the best one-two punch in the league, both are looking to put up Cy Young numbers once again in 2023. Ranger Suarez will start the season on the IL, which means Taijuan Walker will take on the number three spot in the rotation to start the year. Walker earned a four year, $72 million deal in the offseason, which is a bit much for a guy who didn’t crack the top three in the Mets starting rotation last season. Regardless, it’s better to address the need rather than ignoring it. Bailey Falter will slide into the four spot, coming off a respectable 3.86 ERA over 84 innings of work last season. With Suarez out for an unknown period, Philadelphia will likely use their deep bullpen every fifth day instead of using a traditional starter. If Ranger Suarez can come back healthy, the Phillies will boast an elite top three that can carry them deep into the postseason again. However, there’s work to be done with the bottom half of this rotation, with the loss of Zach Eflin clearly causing depth issues.

After having a miserable bullpen for years on end, it might just be the strongest facet of the Phillies roster this season. The acquisition of lefty reliever Gregory Soto now gives Philadelphia two awesome lefty relievers. Meanwhile, Andrew Bellatti, Craig Kimbrel and Seranthony Dominguez are great right-handed options, with Dominguez looking to maintain closing duties after a dominant postseason.

While some are surprised at this prediction and will argue that the Phillies made it to the World Series last season, we have to remember this team wasn’t spectacular in the regular season. In fact, if the extra Wild Card spot wasn’t added last year the Phillies would not have made the playoffs. One thing is for sure; this team can certainly make some noise in October. It’s a proven playoff team with power bats. The one-two punch of Nola-Wheeler is one of the best in the MLB, and the deeper bullpen makes them even more dangerous. Be wary of this club come October!

NL East preview: 1. Atlanta Braves

The Braves have dominated this division for the last half-decade, looking for a sixth straight division title coming into the 2023 season. Ronald Acuña Jr. had a down year last season, and will hope to throw his name back into the MVP conversation with a bounce back year.

Acuña Jr. isn’t the only potential MVP in this lineup, with Austin Riley and Michael Harris looking to put up stellar numbers again this year. After another MVP caliber slash, Riley has cemented himself as one of the best hitters in our game. Maybe I’m reaching with Harris, but he’s arguably the most promising young superstar in our game. He reminds me a lot of when Jason Heyward first came into the big leagues with the Braves. A true five tool player, Harris’ ability to hit for power and contact, along with elite speed and defense makes him a special player to watch. After acquiring Sean Murphy in the offseason, Atlanta now boasts the best catching tandem in the league. Murphy along with Travis d’Arnaud, will bring elite defense and strong offensive production, making this lineup even more dangerous. After a slow start, Matt Olson found his groove, returning to form and posting his third consecutive season with 30-plus home runs. With Vaughn Grissom optioned to Triple-A, it looks as if Orlando Arcia will get the nod at shortstop. Arcia had a strong showing in last year’s postseason, going 3-for-10 with a home run against the Phillies. Ozzie Albies will join Arcia in the middle infield, trying to bounce back after his worst statistical season offensively. Eddie Rosario will start in left, still having trouble shaking his offensive struggles. Rosario hit .212 last season and has just three hits in spring training.

Max Fried will get the ball on Opening Day after posting another stellar regular season stat-line of a 2.48 ERA with 170 strikeouts over 185 innings. Fried surprisingly pitched poorly in his lone postseason start, surrendering four earned runs against the Phillies. He’s due for a contract extension soon, probably looking for a multi-year deal around $25 million AAV. If Fried departs, Spencer Strider could be the new ace of the staff. Strider, along with Brewers starter Corbin Burnes, were my two best picks for the NL Cy Young Award. As long as he can stay healthy, Strider’s high strikeout rate along with his elite efficiency makes him an awesome pick for the NL Cy Young. Last season, Kyle Wright proved to be a valuable piece of the rotation, posting a 3.19 (3.58 FIP) over 180 innings last season. Charlie Morton will enter his 16th season, providing a strong clubhouse presence for the young arms on this staff. With Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder optioned to Triple-A, it looks as if either Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd will take the number five starting role. I think just about everyone is rooting for Mike Soroka to pitch this season. Soroka hasn’t pitched since 2020 and, after two Achilles tears, it looks as if the 25-year-old will rejoin the roster at some point this season.

The bullpen remains elite as usual, with AJ Minter, Raisel Iglesias, and Colin McHugh making up the elite arms in this pen. After a rocky start on a new contract extension with the Angels, Raisel Iglesias found his stride in Atlanta, likely taking on the closing duties this season once he returns from injury.

Once again, Atlanta comes into this season with a talented roster, and has proven year after year this is their division. Until someone overtakes them, how can you not like the Braves to bring home another NL East title?