MLB division previews and predictions: NL West
NL West preview: 4. Arizona Diamondbacks
For a team that won a staggering 52 games in 2021, the D-Backs are in a great spot headed into 2023. The rebuild continues to grow stronger year after year, with the team continuously developing young talent while slowly inching closer to .500 as each year goes by.
Arizona took a massive gamble trading Daulton Varsho this offseason, sending the power-hitting utility player to Toronto in exchange for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno. Moreno was a highly-touted catching prospect for Toronto, batting .319 with a home run in 69 at-bats for Toronto in 2022. Meanwhile, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was a reliable player in Toronto for many seasons. While the power numbers haven’t always been there, Gurriel has always brought elite contact hitting and defensive versatility to the lineup. Arizona boasts a stacked young outfield, with every player 25 years or younger. Corbin Carroll is the second-ranked prospect in baseball, coming off a strong call-up at the end of last season. The 22-year-old tallied a .260/4HR slash in 104 at-bats, likely hitting leadoff in the Opening Day lineup. Jake McCarthy quietly had a strong 2022 campaign, posting a 116 wRC+ in 354 at-bats last year. Alek Thomas completes the group, coming off an incredible defensive season in his rookie campaign. While Thomas struggled at the plate, he accomplished a DRS of 6, the highest total among all qualified rookies. Christian Walker was the best offensive producer among the group last year, blasting a career-high 36 home runs. Walker will rightfully hit fourth in this lineup, hoping to replicate the elite power numbers from last season. 2022 marked a down year for infielder Ketel Marte, struggling to establish his elite contact ability during most of the season. Marte will still find himself at the top of this young lineup, hoping to achieve his third season batting over the .300 mark. The D-Backs did a great job acquiring depth this offseason, signing Evan Longoria and Kyle Lewis to one-year deals. Lewis is a great fourth outfielder for any team to have, and Longoria is still a relatively successful veteran player. It may be Longoria’s last season, and I’m sure baseball fans are curious to see how Longoria’s career shapes out in the Hall of Fame conversation.
The pitching staff has manufactured two elite right-handed starters in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Gallen established himself as a true ace last season, tossing a spectacular 2.54 ERA (3.05 FIP) in 184 innings. Gallen’s spectacular numbers placed him fifth in Cy Young voting, along with a lot more respect from analysts and writers around the league. After posting a 3.37 ERA over 200 innings last year, Kelly earned an invite to the Team USA pitching staff, starting in the championship game. It’s hard to believe that Madison Bumgarner is just 33 years old, a year younger than Kelly. While Bumgarner has registered a 4.60+ ERA in back-to-back seasons, his veteran presence and incredible playoff resume make him a great resource for the younger arms on this staff. Bumgarner will serve as a mentor for Drey Jamison, arguably the most promising young arm amongst the group. Jameson will start the season in the bullpen, coming off a spectacular 1.48 ERA over 24.1 innings of work in 2022. 25-year-old Ryne Nelson won the fifth spot in rotation, who posted a 1.47 ERA over 18.1 innings of work last year. Clearly Nelson and Jameson will be important young arms for D-Backs fans to monitor this season. Zach Davies will also be in the mix for starts, re-signing with the team on a one-year deal over the offseason.
Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro, and Scott McGough highlight the marquee editions to this bullpen, with McGough likely the favorite to close games this season. After four years of closing in Japan, McGough has been reliable in spring training, posting a 2.16 ERA with 9 strikeouts over 8.1 innings of work. Only time will tell if his success can translate to the big leagues.
The future is bright for Arizona. The team will be right around .500 this season, while also having the third-ranked farm system in baseball (according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis). In just a few short years, we can expect to see Arizona back in the playoff hunt, a strong accomplishment for a franchise that was in a really tough spot just a few seasons ago.
NL West preview: 3. San Francisco Giants
It was a relatively disappointing season for the Giants in 2022, a season in which they struggled mightily against their top divisional counterparts. The Giants had a combined 12-28 record against the Padres and Dodgers last year, serving as a plausible reason for why San Francisco was unable to clinch a postseason berth. The Giants will look to improve against their top divisional counterparts in 2023, adding arms and bats in free agency to bolster their overall roster talent.
Michael Conforto and Mitch Haniger will join Joc Pederson in the outfield, two new additions the Giants hope can be impact players. Conforto held out last season after not receiving a desirable contract, while also recovering from shoulder surgery. Conforto will start in right field, likely batting third in this unorthodox Giants lineup. Pederson will likely leadoff this year, coming off a career high 144 wRC+ slash in 2022. After blasting 39 homers in 2021, Haniger experienced a season full of injuries and inconsistencies in 2022. Haniger will start the season on the IL, hoping to return sometime in April.
Perhaps the biggest dagger of San Francisco’s offseason was the inability to secure a deal with shortstop Carlos Correa. The two-time All-Star was believed to be headed to Bay on a 10-year deal, only for the contract to fall through after concerns with Correa’s physical. It now looks as if longtime Giant Brandon Crawford will get the nod at shortstop, coming off a tough offensive season in 2022. Former number 2 overall pick Joey Bart had his fair share of struggles last season, with San Francisco having trouble filling the void for Buster Posey. 2023 marks a prove-it year for the 26-year-old, who will need to show this team he’s a worthy investment as a starting catcher moving forward. Similar to Tampa Bay, the Giants love to platoon players to boost overall offensive production. Lamonte Wade Jr, Mike Yastremski, Austin Slater, JD Davis, and Wilmer Flores are a few of the many names we can expect to see feature in this platoon. A franchise heavily driven by analytics, the Giants will use this group to give them every possible advantage against their opponents offensively.
After losing Carlos Rodón to free agency, the Giants will hope the new names brought in the rotation can help compensate for Rodon’s elite numbers. Ross Stripling was the biggest addition to the rotation, a righty starter coming off a strong 2022 campaign in Toronto. Similar to Logan Webb and Alex Cobb, Stripling had a low ERA thanks to his low-velocity sinker. Stripling’s sinker induced a 43.8 percent groundball rate, helping him get back to the 3 ERA mark he had seen in past seasons. Bringing in Sean Manaea was an interesting move, considering how bad he was against the Dodgers last season. Over 17 innings of work, Manaea gave up an astounding 23 earned runs. Perhaps San Francisco is thinking outside the box, looking at his ERA mark excluding starts against L.A. Manaea could turn out to be a worthy signing, as long he stays away from facing the Dodgers. Logan Webb will get the nod on opening day, coming off another great season. Webb posted a 2.90 ERA (3.03 FIP) over 192 innings, mainly thanks to his incredible 56.7 ground ball percentage. Alex Cobb will join Webb at the top of this rotation, another right-handed starter who relies heavily on his sinker. Cobb was extremely unlucky last year. He had 3.73 ERA (2.70 FIP) over 150 innings. Analytically speaking, his ERA should have been a point lower. In many aspects, this bullpen and starting rotation are heavily intertwined. Aside from their top arms, San Francisco usually doesn’t have their other starters go deep into games. For this reason, we can expect to see guys like Alex Wood and Jakob Junis to open games, pitching a few innings and then paving the way for this dynamic bullpen. This talented bullpen is full of electric arms, led by Dominican flamethrower Camilo Doval. Brothers Taylor and Tyler Rogers will now pitch together on the same staff, with San Francisco signing Taylor to a three-year deal this offseason. The Rogers brothers, along with Doval and John Brebbia, are the marquee names in the bullpen that should get a lot of work this season.
If we factor out the 12-28 record against San Diego and Los Angeles, the Giants had a 69-53 record against all other teams. In other words, they were an incredible 16 games over .500 against the rest of the league.The path to the playoffs is rather simple for San Francisco. If this team can improve their play against their top counterparts, the Giants can easily secure themselves a playoff spot in October.
NL West preview: 2. San Diego Padres
After years upon years of disappointment and losing, Padres fans were finally rewarded with something to celebrate last season. The Friars went on a magical postseason run, defeating their arch-rivals in Los Angeles while advancing to their first NLCS appearance since 1998. San Diego comes into 2023 as a World Series contender, featuring an expensive roster loaded with superstars.
Just when we thought the Padres were done making big moves, Xander Bogaerts signed a 10-year deal with the team out of nowhere. The former Red Sox captain is truly a game-changing addition to this lineup, and certainly a pleasant surprise for Padres fans. Offensively, Bogaerts has been the most consistent shortstop in the league since 2018, averaging a 133 wRC+ over that span, leading all shortstops. You’d be hard pressed to find a 1-5 batting order better than San Diego’s. In some form, the lineup will start with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth. Nothing short of legendary. San Diego will patiently wait for Fernando Tatis Jr. to return, still serving his PED suspension. With Bogaerts now at shortstop, Tatis Jr. will play right field when upon returning. It looks as if David Dahl will start in place of Tatis Jr. for the time being. Remarkably, Dahl hasn’t played in a Major League game since 2021. There really aren’t any other options, with Adam Engel starting the season on the IL, and Matt Beaty likely not making the roster. The outstanding defenderTrent Grisham will remain in center field, hoping to improve his .184 average mark from last season. After a season of redemption with the Yankees, Matt Carpenter earned a two year contract with San Diego over the offseason. Carpenter will probably DH almost all season, with Ha-Seong Kim getting the nod at second base. Kim did an awesome job filling in for Tatis Jr. all of last season, bringing great defensive versatility, speed, and serviceable offensive numbers to the lineup. Austin Nola and Luis Campusano will platoon behind the dish, with the Padres still hoping Campasuano can become the elite catcher he was supposed to be. Rougned Odor and Nelson Cruz are solid veteran bats on the bench, with Cruz hoping to snag a ring in likely his final season.
Blake Snell will get the ball on Opening Day, finally looking a little more like himself last season. Snell tossed a 3.38 ERA (2.80 FIP) over 128 innings, pitching serviceably well in the postseason. Joe Musgrove should only miss a few starts this season after breaking his toe in spring training. Musgrove was a reliable ace during last year’s October run, tossing a 2.89 ERA in 18.2 playoff innings. Yu Darvish is now 36 years old, coming off a season with numbers proving he still can be a number one starter on a playoff team. Darvish posted a 3.10 ERA over 194 regular season innings, and a 2.88 ERA over 25 postseason innings. Michael Wacha was an awesome late free agent signing, coming off a really strong year in Boston. Wacha was arguably the best starter on Boston’s staff last season, having the lowest ERA (3.32) amongst all Red Sox starters. It’s unclear who the fifth starter will be. The Padres may just do a bullpen day with Ryan Weathers or Adrian Morejon opening the game.
The Padres have an incredible bullpen, a group that played a huge part in their playoff run last October. It all starts with Josh Hader, who was virtually unhittable during last year’s postseason. Hader gave up one hit over 5.1 innings pitched last postseason, truly an incredible mark. Hader is followed by a strong supporting cast featuring Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia, and Tim Hill. Suarez will start the season on the IL with elbow soreness.
There’s no doubt that San Diego has the most talented roster within the division. It’s just going to be another battle with the Dodgers for the division title. This season, we will finally get to see how dangerous this team is with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto in the same lineup. Strangely enough, I think this team will win the World Series, but I’m not sure if they can outlast the Dodgers for an NL West title.
NL West preview: 1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Last year marked the Dodgers third 100-win season in the last four years, an incredible feat for the organization. While the postseason struggles are frustrating, there’s no denying this is an incredible regular-season team year after year.
Los Angeles received devastating news about starting second baseman Gavin Lux, who will miss the 2023 season after suffering a torn ACL in spring training. With Lux out, along with Trea Turner and Justin Turner departing in free agency, the infield will have an interesting new look in this upcoming season. Rookie Miguel Vargas will start at second, while newly acquired Miguel Rojas will take over at shortstop. While the offensive numbers aren’t eye popping, Rojas finished second among all shortstops in DRS last season, a testament to the elite defensive ability he brings to the lineup. On base machine Max Muncy will move to third base, hoping to bounce back from a down offensive season. Austin Barnes and Will Smith will platoon behind the dish, arguably the best catching tandem in Major League Baseball. Aside from Buster Posey, Will Smith is the best hitting catcher I’ve seen in my long years as a baseball fan. His calm and collected approach has earned him back-to-back seasons with 24 homers or more. JD Martinez was the Dodgers biggest addition, signing the veteran slugger to a one-year deal over the offseason. Martinez, along with Max Muncy and Will Smith, will be a part of a crucial 3-4-5 heart of the order that will strongly influence the success of this lineup. If this trio can provide production behind Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, we’re going to see another dangerous Dodger lineup this season. Freeman and Betts remain two of the best players in our game, with each seeking for another MVP award to add to their trophy case. The two perennial MVP candidates will carry this lineup in production once again, while also hoping to mentor some of the younger players joining the group. James Outman is a young name that we could see in the outfield, making the Opening Day roster after a strong Cactus League performance. Aside from Outman, there are plenty of other potential names we could see join Betts in the outfield. It could be the veteran lefty David Peralta. Utility man Chris Taylor is another potential option. Let’s also not forget Trayce Thompson, who joined the lineup midseason posting an incredible 142 wRC+. More than likely, it will be a platoon with all of these names involved within it.
Similar to the lineup, the starting rotation will have a new look this year. Walker Buehler is still recovering from his Tommy John surgery, hoping to return near the postseason. Tyler Anderson was signed by the Angels in free agency, heading to Anaheim on a three-year, $41 million deal. Julio Urias will make his first Opening Day start, coming off a season full of accolades. Urias had the lowest ERA (2.16) amongst all National League starters, earning him a third-place finish in Cy Young voting. Clayton Kershaw will enter his 16th season in Dodger Blue. At 35 years old, the future Hall of Famer is still putting up incredible regular-season numbers, posting a 2.28 ERA over 126 innings last year. With Tony Gonsolin out until at least mid-April, it will be up to Dustin May to step in his place. After a full offseason to further recover from Tommy John, May is primed for a breakout season that we’ve all been waiting for. Noah Syndergaard was the lone starter signed by L.A. this offseason, pitching his first full season since 2019 last year. While Syndergaard looked good during certain parts of last season, it’s clear he’ll never be the dominant 100 mph arm we once saw in his younger years. However, Syndergaard did prove he can be a helpful bottom rotation pitcher for a World Series contending team. Nonetheless, it’s also valid to question if the righty can stay healthy for another full season of work. Manager Dave Roberts announced Ryan Pepiot has won the fifth starting job, beating out fellow teammate Michael Grove for the roster spot. Pepiot started seven games last season, eclipsing a 3.47 ERA in those seven starts. His peripherals indicate he got very lucky, considering he ended the season with a 5.27 FIP. When Tony Gonsolin returns to the rotation, it will be interesting to see where or if Pepiot still has a spot in the rotation. From a playoff standpoint, a lot of this rotation’s success will depend on the health of Buehler and Kershaw. If Buehler and Kershaw are fully healthy by October, the Dodgers will have a top three of Urias, Buehler, and Kershaw. However, if Buehler isn’t healthy things could get dicey. Gonsolin pitched poorly in the postseason last year, while also not having a great track record of success against good hitting teams. It’s essential both Kershaw and Buehler are healthy for a deep playoff run.
We can’t forget about this Dodger bullpen, a major key to the team’s success that has some really special pieces. Alex Vesia might just be the most underrated bullpen arm in our game. The lefty has now posted back to back seasons with a sub-2.30 ERA, proving himself to be a phenomenal option for Dave Roberts against lefty hitters. Righty Evan Phillips was ridiculous last season, tossing a 1.14 ERA over 63 innings last season. Phillips is rightfully expected to be used in “the most important situations” this season. Aside from his one playoff appearance against the Padres, Yency Almonte was terrific in his rookie season for Los Angeles. Almonte registered in a 1.02 ERA during 35 regular season innings, serving as another strong asset in the bullpen this year. Veteran righties Jimmy Nelson and Daniel Hudson will start the season in the IL, both targeting returns before June. I also can’t help mentioning Brusdar Graterol, Phil Bickford, Andre Jackson, and lefty Caleb Ferguson. These are four additional quality relievers in this Dodgers bullpen who almost any team would love to have. I hate to be so blunt, but the Dodgers literally have the perfect bullpen. It’s an awesome combination of veteran and young arms, all of whom are capable of pitching in high-leverage situations.
Gavin Lux, Cody Bellinger, Tyler Anderson, Justin Turner, and Trea Turner were all notable names in the 2022 Opening Day lineup that will not be with the team this season. In some ways, it’s the dawn of a new era for Dodger baseball. I agree this roster isn’t as strong as past years, but I also trust that Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman have constructed a winning formula for this new team. Whatever happens in the postseason happens, but one would be foolish to deny this isn’t an incredible regular-season team. The Dodgers have dominated the West for almost half a decade, and are fully capable of bringing home another division title this season.
Next. Previewing and predicting the NL East. dark