NL West preview: 2. San Diego Padres
After years upon years of disappointment and losing, Padres fans were finally rewarded with something to celebrate last season. The Friars went on a magical postseason run, defeating their arch-rivals in Los Angeles while advancing to their first NLCS appearance since 1998. San Diego comes into 2023 as a World Series contender, featuring an expensive roster loaded with superstars.
Just when we thought the Padres were done making big moves, Xander Bogaerts signed a 10-year deal with the team out of nowhere. The former Red Sox captain is truly a game-changing addition to this lineup, and certainly a pleasant surprise for Padres fans. Offensively, Bogaerts has been the most consistent shortstop in the league since 2018, averaging a 133 wRC+ over that span, leading all shortstops. You’d be hard pressed to find a 1-5 batting order better than San Diego’s. In some form, the lineup will start with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth. Nothing short of legendary. San Diego will patiently wait for Fernando Tatis Jr. to return, still serving his PED suspension. With Bogaerts now at shortstop, Tatis Jr. will play right field when upon returning. It looks as if David Dahl will start in place of Tatis Jr. for the time being. Remarkably, Dahl hasn’t played in a Major League game since 2021. There really aren’t any other options, with Adam Engel starting the season on the IL, and Matt Beaty likely not making the roster. The outstanding defenderTrent Grisham will remain in center field, hoping to improve his .184 average mark from last season. After a season of redemption with the Yankees, Matt Carpenter earned a two year contract with San Diego over the offseason. Carpenter will probably DH almost all season, with Ha-Seong Kim getting the nod at second base. Kim did an awesome job filling in for Tatis Jr. all of last season, bringing great defensive versatility, speed, and serviceable offensive numbers to the lineup. Austin Nola and Luis Campusano will platoon behind the dish, with the Padres still hoping Campasuano can become the elite catcher he was supposed to be. Rougned Odor and Nelson Cruz are solid veteran bats on the bench, with Cruz hoping to snag a ring in likely his final season.
Blake Snell will get the ball on Opening Day, finally looking a little more like himself last season. Snell tossed a 3.38 ERA (2.80 FIP) over 128 innings, pitching serviceably well in the postseason. Joe Musgrove should only miss a few starts this season after breaking his toe in spring training. Musgrove was a reliable ace during last year’s October run, tossing a 2.89 ERA in 18.2 playoff innings. Yu Darvish is now 36 years old, coming off a season with numbers proving he still can be a number one starter on a playoff team. Darvish posted a 3.10 ERA over 194 regular season innings, and a 2.88 ERA over 25 postseason innings. Michael Wacha was an awesome late free agent signing, coming off a really strong year in Boston. Wacha was arguably the best starter on Boston’s staff last season, having the lowest ERA (3.32) amongst all Red Sox starters. It’s unclear who the fifth starter will be. The Padres may just do a bullpen day with Ryan Weathers or Adrian Morejon opening the game.
The Padres have an incredible bullpen, a group that played a huge part in their playoff run last October. It all starts with Josh Hader, who was virtually unhittable during last year’s postseason. Hader gave up one hit over 5.1 innings pitched last postseason, truly an incredible mark. Hader is followed by a strong supporting cast featuring Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia, and Tim Hill. Suarez will start the season on the IL with elbow soreness.
There’s no doubt that San Diego has the most talented roster within the division. It’s just going to be another battle with the Dodgers for the division title. This season, we will finally get to see how dangerous this team is with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto in the same lineup. Strangely enough, I think this team will win the World Series, but I’m not sure if they can outlast the Dodgers for an NL West title.