Brewers, Twins, Mariners had most underrated MLB offseasons

With MLB Opening Day kicking off later today, I think we should take one final look at three underrated offseasons.

A productive offseason does not necessarily equate to signing a plethora of star free agents or sending out the farm for a star player or two. Successful offseasons occur when teams use the resources available to them to best fill holes and put their club in a strong position heading into the new season.

The three teams that I talk about in this article may not have had the headline-grabbing offseasons as teams such as the Padres, Yankees, or Mets. However, their underrated offseasons make me believe that all three will be in the thick of things come September. None of the three won their division last season but, with their offseasons, I believe the first two teams will win their division and the third did enough to become a top Wild Card contender.

Underrated MLB offseason: Milwaukee Brewers

The BIG move: William Contreras (C)

In early December, the Brewers shipped off Esteury Ruiz (acquired as part of the Josh Hader package at the last trade deadline) for a return that included William Contreras, Joel Payamps, and Justin Yeager. Contreras, the clear headliner of the group, had an All-Star season with the Atlanta Braves last season. The brother of Willson Contreras slashed .278/.354/.506, which included 57 of 89 starts from behind the plate. While young at just 25 years of age, Contreras’ underlying statistics point to his performance being no fluke. Contreras recorded a max exit velocity in the top 3 percent along with impressive xwOBA and xSLG statistics.

Contreras was solid, albeit unspectacular defensively. He has an average arm and below average framing abilities.

However, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Contreras for his bat. The Brewers were a fringe top-10 offense last year, coming in at 10th in the MLB in runs and wOBA. If the Brewers want to take the next step in becoming a more serious championship contender, their offense will have to improve. Contreras provides the Brewers with a middle-of-the-order masher that appears to have a relatively safe floor, that could even improve given his age and ability.

What makes this move particularly underrated is the relatively little the Brewers had to give up. Esteury Ruiz is certainly a tantalizing prospect. In the minors, Ruiz was fantastic hitting over .330 along with 85 (yes, 85) stolen bases. However, giving up an unproven Ruiz for a return of three interesting pieces, including a likely top-10 catcher, seems like a great deal.

Under-the-radar: Jesse Winker (OF/DH)

Just last season, Winker was largely considered one of the more underrated bats in baseball. The Mariners had high hopes for Winker last season, and while he didn’t meet those expectations, I don’t believe last season was a reflection of the new norm for Winker. Take a look at his Baseball Savant page. Each and every one of his offensive seasons, except for last season, is incredibly impressive. One thing Winker will certainly do is get on base. Winker is in the top 1st percentile in both BB percentage and chase rate. At the very least, Winker will be an effective table-setter for Adames, Yelich, Contreras, and Tellez. Yet, there’s hope for much more. Last season, Winker’s xwOBA was more than 30 points higher than his actual wOBA, signaling that Winker was a bit unlucky last season. Additionally, Winker’s xwOBA was in the top 7 and 3 percent in the two years before last season.

To get Winker, the Brewers parted with Kolten Wong. Wong is a fantastic defensive second baseman (although struggled a bit last year) who offers a safe and consistent offensive profile. While Wong was an important get for the Mariners (more on that later), Winker provides the Brewers with an undeniably higher offensive upside. In a lineup without much of an offensive superstar (especially with the step-back from superstardom of Yelich), taking a risk on Winker’s bat is certainly worth the risk. A strong Winker is absolutely the most prolific bat in this lineup.

Other small moves:

Wade Miley (SP):

When Miley’s been on the field the last two seasons, he’s been effective. Across 200 total innings over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Miley had a 3.37 and 3.16 ERA, respectively. Miley will likely be a fifth starter in a rotation that already features Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Eric Lauer. If he pitches like he has the last couple of seasons, Miley could be one of the top number five starters in the league.

Jon Singleton (1B):

This will be quick. Growing up Singleton was one of my favorite prospects in the Astros’ organization. He last played in MLB in 2015 and was suspended numerous times for drug test violations. Singleton, now 31, walked 117 times and hit 24 homeruns in 134 games in Triple-A. He impressed the Brewers so much that he was signed to another minor league contract and was added to the 40-man roster. If nothing else, Singleton offers an inspirational story that will be fun to see unfold.

Underrated MLB offseason: Seattle Mariners

The BIG move: Teoscar Hernandez (OF)

The Seattle Mariners acquired Teoscar Hernandez from the Toronto Blue Jays in a deal centered around relief pitcher Erik Swanson. Hernandez provides a significant upgrade to an outfield that, excluding rookie sensation Julio Rodriguez, was pretty underwhelming last season. While not a terrific defender, Hernandez’s batting profile provides immense optimism for another productive offensive season.  Hernandez hammers baseballs on a consistent basis. Each of the past three seasons, Hernandez has been in the top 10th percentile in max exit velocity and xSLG. In two of the past three seasons, Hernandez has been in the top 5th percentile in exit velocity. Adding a bat of Hernandez’s caliber gives me hope that this will be one of the strongest Mariners teams that we have seen in some time. While giving up Swanson isn’t ideal, this Mariners team still sports one of baseball’s strongest bullpens headlined by Andres Munoz and Paul Sewald. Especially so with the Mariners, a strong reliever for a strong bat is a great deal.

Under-the-radar: Kolten Wong (2B)

Second base was a pretty big weakness for the Seattle Mariners in 2022. Adam Frazier did not perform as the team had hoped, and there were few other capable second base options behind him. While Wong had a subpar defensive season last year, Wong has long been considered one of the better defensive second basemen in baseball. Wong had a miraculous 17 DRS in 2019, so I think it is fair to expect a strong defensive year from him. On the offensive side of things, Wong provides tremendous value against right-handed pitchers, as he he had a 135 wRC+ against righties last season. Wong was porous against lefties, but the Mariners will likely give Dylan Moore run at second against left-handed starters, where Moore has proven to be effective.

Other small moves: AJ Pollock (OF):

Jarred Kelenic has been tremendous this spring and is still just 23 years old. However, he hasn’t proved much at the MLB level yet in his career. The acquisition of Pollock provides the Mariners with a safety net if Kelenic struggles early in the season. Pollock provides the Mariners with, at the least, a fantastic platoon option that would allow Kelenic to sit against lefties.