Brewers, Twins, Mariners had most underrated MLB offseasons

With MLB Opening Day kicking off later today, I think we should take one final look at three underrated offseasons.

A productive offseason does not necessarily equate to signing a plethora of star free agents or sending out the farm for a star player or two. Successful offseasons occur when teams use the resources available to them to best fill holes and put their club in a strong position heading into the new season.

The three teams that I talk about in this article may not have had the headline-grabbing offseasons as teams such as the Padres, Yankees, or Mets. However, their underrated offseasons make me believe that all three will be in the thick of things come September. None of the three won their division last season but, with their offseasons, I believe the first two teams will win their division and the third did enough to become a top Wild Card contender.

Underrated MLB offseason: Milwaukee Brewers

The BIG move: William Contreras (C)

In early December, the Brewers shipped off Esteury Ruiz (acquired as part of the Josh Hader package at the last trade deadline) for a return that included William Contreras, Joel Payamps, and Justin Yeager. Contreras, the clear headliner of the group, had an All-Star season with the Atlanta Braves last season. The brother of Willson Contreras slashed .278/.354/.506, which included 57 of 89 starts from behind the plate. While young at just 25 years of age, Contreras’ underlying statistics point to his performance being no fluke. Contreras recorded a max exit velocity in the top 3 percent along with impressive xwOBA and xSLG statistics.

Contreras was solid, albeit unspectacular defensively. He has an average arm and below average framing abilities.

However, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Contreras for his bat. The Brewers were a fringe top-10 offense last year, coming in at 10th in the MLB in runs and wOBA. If the Brewers want to take the next step in becoming a more serious championship contender, their offense will have to improve. Contreras provides the Brewers with a middle-of-the-order masher that appears to have a relatively safe floor, that could even improve given his age and ability.

What makes this move particularly underrated is the relatively little the Brewers had to give up. Esteury Ruiz is certainly a tantalizing prospect. In the minors, Ruiz was fantastic hitting over .330 along with 85 (yes, 85) stolen bases. However, giving up an unproven Ruiz for a return of three interesting pieces, including a likely top-10 catcher, seems like a great deal.

Under-the-radar: Jesse Winker (OF/DH)

Just last season, Winker was largely considered one of the more underrated bats in baseball. The Mariners had high hopes for Winker last season, and while he didn’t meet those expectations, I don’t believe last season was a reflection of the new norm for Winker. Take a look at his Baseball Savant page. Each and every one of his offensive seasons, except for last season, is incredibly impressive. One thing Winker will certainly do is get on base. Winker is in the top 1st percentile in both BB percentage and chase rate. At the very least, Winker will be an effective table-setter for Adames, Yelich, Contreras, and Tellez. Yet, there’s hope for much more. Last season, Winker’s xwOBA was more than 30 points higher than his actual wOBA, signaling that Winker was a bit unlucky last season. Additionally, Winker’s xwOBA was in the top 7 and 3 percent in the two years before last season.

To get Winker, the Brewers parted with Kolten Wong. Wong is a fantastic defensive second baseman (although struggled a bit last year) who offers a safe and consistent offensive profile. While Wong was an important get for the Mariners (more on that later), Winker provides the Brewers with an undeniably higher offensive upside. In a lineup without much of an offensive superstar (especially with the step-back from superstardom of Yelich), taking a risk on Winker’s bat is certainly worth the risk. A strong Winker is absolutely the most prolific bat in this lineup.

Other small moves:

Wade Miley (SP):

When Miley’s been on the field the last two seasons, he’s been effective. Across 200 total innings over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, Miley had a 3.37 and 3.16 ERA, respectively. Miley will likely be a fifth starter in a rotation that already features Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta, and Eric Lauer. If he pitches like he has the last couple of seasons, Miley could be one of the top number five starters in the league.

Jon Singleton (1B):

This will be quick. Growing up Singleton was one of my favorite prospects in the Astros’ organization. He last played in MLB in 2015 and was suspended numerous times for drug test violations. Singleton, now 31, walked 117 times and hit 24 homeruns in 134 games in Triple-A. He impressed the Brewers so much that he was signed to another minor league contract and was added to the 40-man roster. If nothing else, Singleton offers an inspirational story that will be fun to see unfold.

Underrated MLB offseason: Minnesota Twins

The BIG move(s): Carlos Correa & Pablo Lopez

After perhaps the craziest individual offseason of all time, Carlos Correa finds himself with the team he ended last year with … the Minnesota Twins. After two deals worth north of $300 million fell through with the Giants and then the Mets, Correa ended up with a 6-year, $200 million contract that could be worth up to $270 million over 10 years if his options vest. Due to being a smaller market in comparison to many other teams, keeping Correa around is hugely important. In my opinion, Correa is absolutely a top three shortstop and, when right, is the top at his position. Two seasons ago, Correa won the AL Platinum Glove, awarded to the best fielder in the American League. Correa also has one of the strongest bats at the position. Losing Correa would have been a devastating blow to a group trying to sit atop one of the weaker divisions in baseball.

Pablo Lopez was another incredible acquisition for the division-hungry Twins. Last season was a tale of two halves for Lopez. Lopez started the season out as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and concluded his first half of the season with a sub-3 ERA. Following a strong start, Lopez accumulated a 4.97 ERA over the second half of the year. While not making excuses, I’m sure the constant trade rumors and uncertainty of his future might have played a role in his disappointing second half. I bet next season we see a Lopez who meets somewhere in the middle between the two halves, somewhere in the mid to low 3s in ERA. Last season, the Twins were the second worst in quality start %. While this is certainly not the end-all-be-all in terms of measuring a team’s pitching, it highlights the need for starting pitching that the Twins had coming into the offseason. The Twins’ addition of Lopez helps fill this hole, and a rotation that consists of Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Tyler Mahle looks pretty good to me.

Under-the-radar: Christian Vazquez (C)

Vazquez was signed to a three-year deal worth $30 million. While struggling offensively following his trade to the Astros last trade deadline, Vazquez was pushed into a new role as a backup to Martin Maldonado. Back to an everyday role with the Twins, I believe we will see strong offensive outputs from Vazquez, as he has proven to be an above-average offensive catcher throughout the majority of his career, paired with strong defensive play.

Other small moves: Joey Gallo (OF)

Not too long ago, Gallo was considered one of the top power bats in the game. Following a very disappointing stint with the Yankees and then with the Dodgers, Gallo looks to recover the form that has made him a two-time all star. Gallo certainly still has power, with an ISO of .197 last year and .259 the year before that. However,  ISOs that are higher than batting averages usually aren’t a great sign. At the worst, Gallo will provide the Twins with strong outfield defense and plenty of home runs. Especially with the banning of the shift, it’s reasonable for the Twins to hope for a bit more from Gallo.