Projecting
If we’re honest, what really drives the discussion isn’t what Ohtani has done to date, but what we project that he will do in the future. After all, although he’s been in MLB since 2018, he was limited for three of those five seasons: treated as Delft China in 2018, barred from the mound in 2019, and short-scheduled by Covid in 2020.
If Ohtani’s career ended right now, comparisons with Ruth would seem ludicrous.
- He has a .267/.354/.532 career slash line; Ruth’s was .342/.474/.690
- He has hit 127 home runs; Ruth hit 714.
- Ohtani has a career 139 OPS+; Ruth’s was 206.
- Ohtani has 28 pitching wins in 63 starts covering 349.2 innings. Ruth won 94 times and produced 1,221 innings.
- Ohtani has amassed 8.8 games worth of Win Probability as a hitter plus another 6.4 as a pitcher. That totals 15.2. Ruth accumulated 111.4 on offense and 8.0 more as a pitcher, totaling 119.4.
They didn’t say so, but neither Russo nor Phillips were arguing in the past tense, or even in the present tense. With respect to Ohtani, they were projecting what they assume he will do based on his two recent and very spectacular seasons plus his remarkable WBC showing.
There’s no harm in that; it’s a substantial portion of what sports media does. But it is not necessarily accurate.