Call to the pen
Fansided

The problems and possibilities of MLB expansion into Japan

By Nathaniel Sunshine

Japan's Shohei Ohtani pitches during the World Baseball Classic (WBC) quarter-final game between Japan and Italy at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 16, 2023. (Photo by Yuichi YAMAZAKI / AFP) (Photo by YUICHI YAMAZAKI/AFP via Getty Images)
Japan's Shohei Ohtani pitches during the World Baseball Classic (WBC) quarter-final game between Japan and Italy at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo on March 16, 2023. (Photo by Yuichi YAMAZAKI / AFP) (Photo by YUICHI YAMAZAKI/AFP via Getty Images) /
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Mar 21, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; a fan of team Japan holds a sign against USA in the World Baseball Classic at LoanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 21, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; a fan of team Japan holds a sign against USA in the World Baseball Classic at LoanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports /

Potential monetary gain (we all know the owners love some money)

From what I gather, despite large revenues, teams in Japan fail to make much of a profit. Even teams that are potentially worth over $1 billion have trouble breaking even. Why? The answer is complex and deals with marketing and promotion.

Teams in Japan are owned mostly by large corporations and therefore are actually a relatively small portion of their business. These teams see their teams as self-promotional tools and do not need to bring in large amounts of money. However, there is still plenty of money coming in, something that could be expanded with the MLB. In 2019, NPB brought in around $140 million in revenue per team. This is around a third of what an MLB team makes on average and is lower than even the lowest-revenue MLB teams. If Japan is brought into MLB, they will certainly generate more thanks to better sponsorship opportunities and the gravity of joining an even more major sports league.

While I do not have values for the current league TV deals, we can look at similar sports TV deals in Japan to determine what NPB could bring in. J. League, the Japanese Football/Soccer League, inked a 12-year deal with sports streaming service DAZN for about $2.1 billion. Now, J. League has more teams than NPB (60 teams across three levels), but they have fewer games at the top level and attract fewer fans in attendance. Right now, they are in a lower-profile league, but rising as the main alternative to baseball in the region.

If NPB were to sign a similar deal as J. League, teams would receive about $17.5 million per year. However, it can be expected that NPB would receive significantly more than that J. League as it is the bigger sport in Japan. For the record, MLB teams currently make on their combined national and regional TV deals yearly (roughly $176 million).

DAZN would certainly want to continue hosting games, especially if MLB teams are involved, but as regional sports networks have their long inevitable collapse, I wouldn’t be surprised if MLB tried to move non-national broadcasts all onto MLB.tv.

If MLB were to merge with NPB, some changes in how expansions are brought in would be required. Rumors swirling that MLB expansion fees could bring in over $2.2 billion per team for the inevitable US/Canada-based expansion teams. Bringing in the NPB to MLB, most teams’ parent companies can afford such a fee, but they would be unlikely to pay that much. NPB owners do not see their teams as money-making ventures like teams in MLB do currently. It is only fair to do some discount to bring in teams that have established fan bases and infrastructure for teams. There would not be a need to build support for a team as that would already be accounted for.

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