Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres: 2 truths and 1 lie about the NL West

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Through the first 10 days of the season, when the other MLB divisions are starting to form their winners and losers, the NL West is still a complete enigma. Only two games separate the division’s leader from its cellar dweller.

With that in mind, I’m going to play two truths and a lie and see if we can make some sense of the NL West’s Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres.

Truth: The San Diego Padres will win the NL West

In just a few days, on April 20, Fernando Tatis Jr., will return to the show. His return is huge for the Padres as Tatis is considered one of the best in baseball and, at just 24 years old, baseball fans have only started to see flashes of what he can do.

The Padres are spending nearly a billion dollars to surround their homegrown talent (Tatis Jr.) with the firepower he will need to win a World Series. Xander Bogaerts and Nelson Cruz are off to hot starts with five home runs and 17 RBI. Juan Soto has seven runs already this season, even with an annoying oblique issue, and Manny Machado is batting .308. On the pitching side, Seth Lugo has been outstanding, with 12 strikeouts and a 1.38 ERA in two starts.

Watch Lugo catch the Braves with a nasty curveball.below.

Seth Lugo, 3478 RPM Curveball. 😲 pic.twitter.com/Y7m23TSWK8
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 9, 2023

The Padres are a lot better than their current record shows. Currently in second place in the NL West at 6-4, the record is not an accurate reflection of their play. However, the +8 run differential is a bit more telling of how good the Padres will be this season and, with Tatis Jr. back in the stacked lineup, they will be hard to beat this year. The truth is the Padres will win the NL West.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – APRIL 09: JD Martinez #28 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates with James Outman #33 after scoring on a sacrifice fly hit by Miguel Vargas #17 against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning at Chase Field on April 09, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Truth: Los Angeles Dodgers will make the playoffs

The Dodgers currently sit quietly in third place in the division. That 5-5 record indicates they are shaking off the spring rust, so it is not cause for concern, and the Dodgers are certainly not struggling. There is actually a lot to be optimistic about in Los Angeles.

The first statistic that stands out for the Dodgers is their home run total (18). That is second in MLB behind the undefeated Tampa Bay Rays. It’s not one player blasting the homers either, it is a team effort. Jason Heyward, James Outman, Trayce Thompson, and catcher Will Smith lead the team with three home runs each.

Watch Heyward blast a rocket off the foul pole to see what I’m talking about.

Jason Heyward's 3rd homer of the year is a missile off the foul pole! pic.twitter.com/GSbTxzWNrq
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 9, 2023

The Dodgers are a very good team that just had a bad pair of series against the Diamondbacks. Over the six-game home-and-home set, the Dodgers gave up 31 runs and dropped four games to the division-leading Diamondbacks. This poor series is why the Dodgers are sitting in the middle of the standings and the Diamondbacks are leading.

Despite the awful series against Arizona, the Dodgers still boast an NL West-leading +16 run differential. In addition, they are the top-ranked team in the NL in runs, OPS, and home runs. They will continue a series in San Francisco on Tuesday against the Giants.

The Dodgers should perform well and bounce back quickly against the Giants. Los Angeles fans should be looking forward to some big moves at the trade deadline. They have a surprisingly low and manageable payroll with the prospects and cash to make a splash.

This is where the truth sets in, the Dodgers will sweep the Giants and find themselves back in the Wild Card spot, which they will hold at the end of the season.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA – APRIL 09: Pavin Smith #26 of the Arizona Diamondbacks scores on a single hit by Jake McCarthy #31 against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the fourth inning at Chase Field on April 09, 2023 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /

Lie: The Diamondbacks will continue to lead the NL West

This leads us to the big lie … that the Arizona Diamondbacks are the best team in the NL West. They are certainly not even in the top three. Their 6-4 division-leading record is not the truth. Make no mistake, they are improving very quickly over last year’s .457 win percentage, but they are not contenders just yet.

One aspect of the Diamondbacks so far this season that should have fans excited is the entire team is batting .271. It’s not one player putting up a monster average, but it’s several players hitting over .400. Geraldo Perdomo, Evan Longoria, catcher Jose Herrera, and Josh Rojas are all over .400 in 64 combined at-bats.

Just watch this brilliant slide by Josh Rojas and get excited about the Diamondbacks season.

Just gonna watch @JoshRojass' slide on loop forever and ever. pic.twitter.com/Tty1mhpddY
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) April 4, 2023

The pitching is weak in Arizona. The Diamondbacks have already given up an MLB-leading 18 home runs. They also lead the league in walks with 55. Putting runners on base for free and giving up home runs is a primary recipe for a losing season.

Unfortunately, the NL West is too good, the Rockies are usually early-season surprises, and the Giants will break out of their winter slumber soon. The Diamondbacks could win 80 games this season, but the best team in the NL West is a lie. They will almost certainly be at the bottom of the standings come October.

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