Fantasy Baseball: 3 buy-low and 3 sell-high early-season candidates

One of the most relevant aspects of fantasy baseball is the dynamic ability to constantly make trades, adds, and drops to improve teams. Therefore, you need to be aware of players who are underperforming or overperforming, then take advantage of any business that can be done to improve your team.

Because there are advanced metrics, we can rely on these statistics to study which players are having worse results than they should be and could be buy-low candidates or those who are having results above expectations and are sell-high candidates. In this article, we recommend options for buying low and selling high candidates for fantasy baseball. They have to be in more than 50 percent of the leagues to be considered a candidate.

Top buy-low candidates in fantasy baseball right now

• Juan Soto. According to Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball Trade Market info, Soto has become a popular name in the market due to his slow start, which coincides with poor performance since last year’s deadline. However, according to Statcast stats, Juan Soto has been connecting with the highest hard-hit contact of his career and his xSLG exceeds his real SLG by more than 150 points, which indicates that Soto has been having bad luck. Fantasy managers who have him on their rosters hopes it gets better soon.
• Ryan Pressly. Pressly has been horrible on the mound to start this season, racking up an ERA over 8.00. However, his xERA sits around 3.00. Pressly’s problem is that he’s been striking out fewer batters due to lower speed on his pitches, which has caused him to use less of his fastball, his second-best pitch. As the day progresses, Pressly’s stuff and stamina will continue to adjust until it achieves better results, making him a perfect candidate to buy on the downside.
• Miguel Vargas. Vargas is an interesting player. He is little known but his talent as a top prospect stands out. His results are way below expectations, but he is an elite player in OBP leagues. Vargas leads the league in BB percentage and ranks in the top 1 percent in chase rate. His batting average is around .200, but his xBA indicates he should be hitting around .290 with an xwOBA that ranks in the top 7 percent of the league. This is a player who can be acquired for a low cost but with a pretty good production return.

Top sell-high candidates in fantasy baseball right now

• Nick Castellanos. Castellanos looks like a completely different hitter. After working with Kevin Long in the offseason, his OBP is by far the highest of his career at around .375. However, his high AVG and OBP are untenable due to his low power contact and high strikeout incidence. His xBA sits under .200 and his xSLG sits around a horrible .270. The downward adjustment is coming.
• Merrill Kelly. Kelly looks like a great pitcher this year with his ERA sitting below 3.00. However, looking closely at his advanced metrics, we see that his BB percentage is among the worst in the league and his hard-hit contact allowed has risen this season. His xERA sits at almost 7.00 due to an expected contact quality of .450, which is not good for a pitcher.
• Bryson Stott. Another Phillies player enters the list. Stott has been getting good results early in the year. With an average nearing .400 and SLG around .470, he looks like a bargain this year. But Stott finds himself striking out more than he did last year, striking out nearly 25 percent of the time while taking one of the lowest percentages in the league in BB percentage. His lack of discipline combined with a significant increase in his GB percentage and an abysmal decrease in his FB percentage  is even more worrying. This combination suggests that Stott’s downward adjustment will come fast and be radical. It is important to take advantage of his value, especially for the premium positions that he is eligible for in fantasy leagues.