Ranking the top 10 MLB free agents on the upcoming market
Number 9: Whit Merrifield
2-hit Whit, as he was known in Kansas City, Whit Merrifield is a hit machine and has been since he got to the league back in 2016 with the Royals. He is also a plus defender and can play almost anywhere on the diamond, making him one of the most valuable players in the upcoming market.
Before getting traded to Toronto in 2022, the two-time AL leader in hits spent his first six seasons playing at Kauffman Stadium. He signed a five-year, $23 million contract to avoid arbitration. This contract took him through arb plus an extra year in 2023.
2019 was Merrifield’s best year as he had 206 hits and played in all 162 games. This was also his first All-Star appearance. Add on 20 stolen bases and 16 home runs and you got a great leadoff hitter or someone to put at the bottom of the order to set the table.
Contact hitters should fit well in any ballpark. However, as Merrifield gets into his late 30s, we could see a bit more power. If you consider what the Blue Jays have done with their outfield walls, the two-time All-Star could have another tool to show off.
Number 8: Adam Duvall
Newly acquired Boston Red Sox outfielder Adam Duvall got off to a very hot start this season with his new team. The All-Star outfielder has a slash line of .455/.514/1.030. Yes, you saw that right, he is slugging 1.030. It is a small sample but those numbers are nothing to ignore.
This has been an unusual start average-wise for Duvall as he has never been a high-average guy. It is going to be interesting to see if he can continue to impress. Like Whit Merrifield, Duvall is getting up in age so it would be hard to see him getting a long-term contract. However, like some other players on this list, a two- to four-year deal seems very likely. Especially if this blazing start can continue after he gets back from surgery.
The 2021 World Series champion has always had the tool of power, hitting 38 home runs two seasons ago while leading the National League in RBI that same year. He also had back-to-back seasons with 30 or more home runs in 2016 and 2017.
Signing a one-year, $7 million contract this offseason with Boston, the 34-year-old has bounced around to five different teams spending most of his time with the Braves (2018-20, 2021-22) and Reds (2015-18).
I think a lot of people are speculating if he can continue the pace he is on when he comes back from undergoing surgery that was announced on April 10. But I also value constancy highly, therefore he is staying on this list.
Number 7: Matt Chapman
Like the number eight player on this list (Adam Duvall), Matt Chapman is off to an amazing start to his season with the Toronto Blue Jays. With a slash line of .453/.517/.774, eight doubles, and 15 RBI, Chapman has been key to this impressive Blue Jays lineup. The protection that Chapman has been getting for Toronto’s order could be playing a factor here … but you could also say that they had the same lineup around him last season minus Daulton Varsho.
Another key factor why Chappy is on this list is because he is the only notable free agent at the hot corner. Sure, you could make a case for Gio Urshela (who I’ll leave as my honorable mention), but, for this list, I’ll stick with the three-time Gold Glove winner.
Coming into spring training, the clear favorite third baseman to get the big bucks in free agency was Manny Machado as there were plenty of rumors that he would opt out of his contract with the Padres. This choice was put aside as Machado announced his opt-out and then resigned with the Friars.
Back to the guy on this list, Chapman’s big tool is his glove. He is a three-time Gold Glove winner, a two-time Platinum Glove winner, and a two-time Wilson Defensive Player of the Year. Who wants to get one of the game’s best defenders? We’ll find out soon enough.
Number 6: Yasmani Grandal
The switch-hitting tool of Yasmani Grandal is probably his best ability … but a backstop that can do that and swing the stick well is even better. Grandal is off to a great start this season and it couldn’t come at a better time as he is heading into free agency for the first time in four years after signing a four-year, $73 million contract with the White Sox ahead of the shortened 2020 season.
So far in 2023, he is slashing .298/.365/.468, good for an OPS of 833. This line may not jump off the charts compared to some of the guys mentioned earlier, but it is certainly good for a catcher.
Back in 2019 when he was playing for the Brewers and also in a contract year, the two-time All-Star hit 28 home runs and drove in 77 runs with an OPS well into the 800s. Grandal has shown that he can perform when teams are watching, making him a great fit for this list.
Add on two All-Star appearances, an All-MLB second-team honor in 2019, and the top spot in putouts as a catcher for three straight seasons (2017-19) plus the secondary experience at first base. The 34-year-old from Cuba is a pretty well-rounded catcher and that is why he is on this list.
Number 5: Aaron Nola
Although he is off to a rough start this season, Aaron Nola is one of the best pitchers in the National League and the ace of the Philadelphia Phillies. Nola is coming off a pretty good year in 2022, helping to pitch the Phillies to the World Series.
Ending the season with two really good starts and two not-so-good starts in the postseason, it was still enough to send Philadelphia to the Fall Classic. Nola pitched to a 3.25 ERA in 32 starts during the regular season, picking up 235 strikeouts.
The right-hander is at the end of a five-year, $56.75 million contract with the Phillies, meaning that, should he not receive an extension, he will hit free agency for the first time in his career. Maybe he follows what the Rogers brothers did when Taylor Rogers went to the Giants to be teammates with his brother Tyler. Austin Nola catching Aaron Nola in San Diego would be cool.
Once a top prospect and making an appearance in the 2015 Futures Game, the 29-year-old’s best season was back in 2018 when he was an All-Star and had a 2.37 ERA in 212.1 IP. He ended that year finishing third in the NL Cy Young race, putting himself on the map as one of the game’s best hurlers.
Check out some possible landing spots for Aaron Nola here and you can also check out more of his stats here.
Number 4: Teoscar Hernández
Before getting traded to the Seattle Mariners early this past offseason, Teoscar Hernández was one of the best power-hitting outfielders in the big leagues. In his first season in Seattle, Hernández is hitting .250 in 60 at-bats with three home runs and nine RBI. Not a lot of games so far, but it will be important to see if he can pick things up a little.
While his defense is still a question mark, Hernández has a plus arm. His arm strength is averaging in the 83rd percentile according to Baseball Savant. Keeping the former Blue Jay in the two corner outfield spots may do enough to hide most of his reaction and fielding struggles.
When you only have one side of the ball as a bright spot, it better be elite if you want to make it in the top 5. The 30-year-old has that bright spot in his bat winning back-to-back Silver Slugger awards and hitting 32 home runs in 2021.
Before the 2023 season, things did not get off to a good start in the relationship between the slugger and his new team when the Mariners won the arbitration hearing, something that can ruin relationships between players and teams and it may have been the case here.
I think it’s safe to say that there could be some interesting decisions being made by Teoscar Hernández and his camp come next offseason.
Number 3: Josh Hader
With the exception of 2022, Josh Hader has been one of the best left-handed relief pitchers in baseball. The Padres got him midseason last year to help improve their bullpen. Unfortunately, this was during the season in which Hader had troubles. But they have him for a full season in 2023 and he is already off to a good start.
Winning three Reliever of the Year awards in the National League, Hader was a go-to arm for Craig Counsell and the Brewers. He was the perfect guy to have come out of the pen.
One bright spot of last season was the southpaw’s postseason, with an ERA of 0.00 in three outings with 10 strikeouts. Since then, he has pitched to a 1.50 ERA so far this season in six games.
From the 582nd pick in the 2012 MLB Draft to a four-time All-Star, four-time NL reliever of the year, five-time reliever of the month, and two All-MLB first team honors, the 29-year-old has had his fair share of awards throughout his career.
What sets him apart from other players on this list is the constant demand for bullpen arms, especially lefties. Though it is probably safe to say we won’t see Edwin Diaz-type money being handed out, a solid left-handed pen arm like Hader could have a lot of value and it will be interesting to see what he gets.
#2 – Julio Urias
Emerging as one of the National League’s best pitchers in 2019, Julio Urias has been lights out for opponents. L.A.’s left-hander has only had one season since 2019 where his ERA was above three.
Once a 20-game winner, a leader in ERA, and a season with the best pitching record in the NL in 2021, Urias has a career ERA of 2.78 in 104 starts. He has continued his success into the new campaign, picking up 20 punchouts in 18 innings pitched.
Before finishing third in the Cy Young race in 2022, Urias had a career year. A 4.04 K/BB ratio and striking out 39 more hitters (166) than he allowed hits (127).
A likable attribute of the southpaw is his low walk percentage. His BB percent is averaging in the 87th percentile since 2021. A pitcher that can command as well as he does and give 170+ innings a season is what makes him a must-grab.
But will L.A. re-sign him? We all know that they have the money and with not a lot of signings this past offseason, could they be saving for a Julio Urias extension? If that doesn’t happen, there is another guy a lot of people suspect they will be after and he won’t be cheap.
#1 – Shohei Ohtani
Where do I even start other than saying that, when healthy, Shohei Ohtani can win the MVP every year. Let’s be honest, if Aaron Judge did not reach 62 home runs and had broken the single-season big fly record for the American League, Ohtani would have won the award for the second straight season.
He is that good. He can throw a pitch at 102 mph and he can hit a ball over 110 mph, which is unheard of and almost impossible for almost every player in the sport. And who could forget his matchup against Mike Trout in the World Baseball Classic, an at-bat that will be remembered forever. As the trade deadline and end of the season come, the rumors will be flying out like crazy.
If we were going to talk about one season it has to be his 2021 MVP campaign. 46 home runs, 100 RBI, eight triples (which led the league), and an OPS of .965. That’s just hitting. As a pitcher, he had a 3.18 ERA, 156 strikeouts, and was 9-2.
So, where is he going to get $500 million? Well, you would have to think that the Angels would at least try to get him back. If not them you could look at the Mets, Yankees, Giants, Padres, and Dodgers as some of the teams in the running.
The next offseason will be exciting, to say the least.
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