Nick Castellanos recapturing hitting form Phillies expected all along

Whatever the reasons for his rough first season in Philadelphia, a two-home run game Saturday may have broken the seal on Nick Castellanos being the hitter the Philles expected.

The pressure of a big contract. A new city, and life adjustments. Having a child. Some injuries (wrist, turf toe, oblique), Whatever the reasons, Nick Castellanos had a rough first season with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022. Over 558 plate appearances, he posted a .263/.305/.389 slash-line with 13 home runs and 62 RBI. That .694 OPS was his worst OPS in a full major league season.

There was certainly a “nowhere to go but up” vibe attached Castellanos heading into this season. The All-Star, Silver Slugger winner and down-ballot MVP vote getter with the Cincinnati Reds in 2021 could surely come back, right?

Entering Saturday’s game against the Colorado Rockies, Castellanos had a .288/.367/.400 slash line with 11 RBI and nine doubles with a hit in five of his last six games. But notably, he had not yet hit a home run. A 48-game home run drought (counting postseason) dating back to last season was by far a career-long.

Will two-home run game break the seal Nick Castellanos recapturing his previous form?

Castellanos hit a solo homer in the second inning on Saturday off Rockies’ starter Kyle Freeland. Then he followed with a go-ahead solo shot off Freeland in the sixth inning. He added his major-league leading 10th double of the year in a 3-for-4 day.

Castellanos’ Statcast metrics tell the expected story for 2022. His chase rate was a career-worst 39.6 percent, helping to yield a career-low walk rate (5.2 percent). But with all that swinging, he posted a career-worst 6.6 percent barrel rate.

Castellanos has always landed in a low percentile (25th or worse) for whiff rate and chase rate, but it was not yielding impactful contact the way it always had previously.

So far this year, entering Sunday, Castellanos is swinging at a career-low 48.9 percent of pitches thrown to him. His barrel rate (10.5 percent, 68th percentile) is back to what it was in 2021 (10.6 percent, 70th percentile). The black mark is a 57.9 percent ground ball rate, with just a 14 percent fly ball rate. Every other deeper hitting metric is up from last year’s bottoming out.

Perhaps Saturday’s two home run game is a seal breaker for Castellanos to start elevating the ball more. For that matter, his double on Saturday was nearly a third home run. His process at the plate is better than it was last year, and the results have mostly been there besides home runs before Saturday’s outburst.

The Phillies surely thought they were getting a 25-30 home run hitter when they signed Castellanos. When it’s all said and done this season, it looks like they will get the impactful bat they expected as he leaves a dismal 2022 campaign behind.