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Top 5 MLB teams outperforming preseason projections

By Jonathan Northall |
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - APRIL 24: Wander Franco #5 and Manuel Margot #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrate after defeating the Houston Astros 8-3 at Tropicana Field on April 24, 2023 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - APRIL 24: Wander Franco #5 and Manuel Margot #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrate after defeating the Houston Astros 8-3 at Tropicana Field on April 24, 2023 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
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With just 14 percent of the 2023 MLB season’s 2,430 games played, it could be considered early to consider teams and their win/loss records against preseason projections. It could also be fun, so let’s delve into the top five teams who are outperforming their projections so far.

In order to do this, Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections, for both American League and National League, are being used as the comparator. Both projections, based on estimates, and current position, with 86% of the season to play, are presented illustratively only. There is a long way to go!

Milwaukee Brewers (15-8) .652 vs .512 +.140

The record for the Milwaukee Brewers could have been even better, but dropping the last two games, including a disappointing loss to the Tigers, has stunted a hot start to 2023.

With sweeps against the Mets and the Mariners, the Brewers were leading NL Central at 14-5. Perennial performer Christian Yelich has led the way with 20 runs, but Brian Anderson (15), Willy Adames (14), and Rowdy Tellez (12) have contributed.

On the mound, it’s been the lefty combination of Eric Lauer and Wade Miley who have had the most success. Miley, in particular (1.96 ERA), has looked sharp.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS – APRIL 23: Jacob deGrom #48 of the Texas Rangers pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the top of the fourth inning at Globe Life Field on April 23, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS – APRIL 23: Jacob deGrom #48 of the Texas Rangers pitches against the Oakland Athletics in the top of the fourth inning at Globe Life Field on April 23, 2023 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) /

Texas Rangers (14-8) .636 vs .488 +.148

Winning a series against the Astros in Houston speaks loudly about the 2023 Texas Rangers. Adolis García leads the MLB in RBI with 28, while Marcus Semien is joint run leader (21). The Rangers are offensively producing, and it’s getting them up with no less than six double-digit scores so far.

The addition of Jacob deGrom has been predictably effective, with a 2-0 record in his five starts while posting a 3.04 ERA. It’s not just about deGrom, as the pitchers have allowed 166 hits so far and rank fourth in the AL. First place in the AL West with the Astros 2.5 games back is an excellent start to a projected sub-.500 season.

WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 18: Ryan Mountcastle #6 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates with teammates after scoring in the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 18, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – APRIL 18: Ryan Mountcastle #6 of the Baltimore Orioles celebrates with teammates after scoring in the fourth inning against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on April 18, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

Baltimore Orioles (15-7) .682 vs .494 +.188

The Baltimore Orioles are on a seven-game winning streak and would be the hottest property in AL East if it weren’t for the record-breaking shenanigans in Tampa Bay. On offense, Ryan Mountcastle has been exemplary: 14 runs with 20 RBI and six home runs. Jorge Mateo and Austin Hays are not far behind as the Orioles continue to surprise in 2023.

Part of the success factor for the Orioles has been experienced pitcher Kyle Gibson. FanGraphs suggested that “pushing Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin to the mid-rotation roles that better fit their talents.” Whereas Irvin has lived up to this, Gibson has delivered four wins from four starts with a 3.60 ERA. The 35-year-old is looking like $10 million well spent by the Orioles.

Apr 22, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Duane Underwood Jr. (56) and catcher Austin Hedges (18) shake hands after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. The Pirates won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 22, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates relief pitcher Duane Underwood Jr. (56) and catcher Austin Hedges (18) shake hands after defeating the Cincinnati Reds at PNC Park. The Pirates won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports /

Pittsburgh Pirates (16-7) .696 vs .420 +.276

Two weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates were exceeding expectations at 6-4. Since then, splitting a series at the Cardinals was followed by sweeps against the Rockies and the Reds. Veterans like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen have helped bring back memories of 1992, and the Pirates’ last divisional title and make preseason projections look wrong.

The Pirates’ starting pitchers have a 2.15 ERA over their last 13 games, which is the best in MLB. On a seven-game winning streak, the pitchers have limited the opposition to just 15 runs while amassing 45. This has made a mockery of FanGraphs’ prediction of the Pirates being “towards the bottom of the division.”

Apr 24, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) reacts after hitting double against the Houston Astros in the sixth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2023; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) reacts after hitting double against the Houston Astros in the sixth inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports /

Tampa Bay Rays (20-3) .870 vs .531 +.339

There’s baseball, and there is Rays baseball at the moment. Breaking records with impunity, the 2023 Rays are so far above any projection that it’s pointless trying to explain it. It can’t continue, but it’s fun for Rays fans.

Next. Could the Rays break these home run records?. dark

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