Top 5 MLB teams outperforming preseason projections

With just 14 percent of the 2023 MLB season’s 2,430 games played, it could be considered early to consider teams and their win/loss records against preseason projections. It could also be fun, so let’s delve into the top five teams who are outperforming their projections so far.

In order to do this, Fangraphs’ ZiPS projections, for both American League and National League, are being used as the comparator. Both projections, based on estimates, and current position, with 86% of the season to play, are presented illustratively only. There is a long way to go!

Milwaukee Brewers (15-8) .652 vs .512 +.140

The record for the Milwaukee Brewers could have been even better, but dropping the last two games, including a disappointing loss to the Tigers, has stunted a hot start to 2023.

With sweeps against the Mets and the Mariners, the Brewers were leading NL Central at 14-5. Perennial performer Christian Yelich has led the way with 20 runs, but Brian Anderson (15), Willy Adames (14), and Rowdy Tellez (12) have contributed.

On the mound, it’s been the lefty combination of Eric Lauer and Wade Miley who have had the most success. Miley, in particular (1.96 ERA), has looked sharp.

Texas Rangers (14-8) .636 vs .488 +.148

Winning a series against the Astros in Houston speaks loudly about the 2023 Texas Rangers. Adolis García leads the MLB in RBI with 28, while Marcus Semien is joint run leader (21). The Rangers are offensively producing, and it’s getting them up with no less than six double-digit scores so far.

The addition of Jacob deGrom has been predictably effective, with a 2-0 record in his five starts while posting a 3.04 ERA. It’s not just about deGrom, as the pitchers have allowed 166 hits so far and rank fourth in the AL. First place in the AL West with the Astros 2.5 games back is an excellent start to a projected sub-.500 season.

Pittsburgh Pirates (16-7) .696 vs .420 +.276

Two weeks ago, the Pittsburgh Pirates were exceeding expectations at 6-4. Since then, splitting a series at the Cardinals was followed by sweeps against the Rockies and the Reds. Veterans like Carlos Santana and Andrew McCutchen have helped bring back memories of 1992, and the Pirates’ last divisional title and make preseason projections look wrong.

The Pirates’ starting pitchers have a 2.15 ERA over their last 13 games, which is the best in MLB. On a seven-game winning streak, the pitchers have limited the opposition to just 15 runs while amassing 45. This has made a mockery of FanGraphs’ prediction of the Pirates being “towards the bottom of the division.”

Tampa Bay Rays (20-3) .870 vs .531 +.339

There’s baseball, and there is Rays baseball at the moment. Breaking records with impunity, the 2023 Rays are so far above any projection that it’s pointless trying to explain it. It can’t continue, but it’s fun for Rays fans.