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Dodgers, Padres, more: A May bold prediction for every NL West team

By Jonathan Northall |
Apr 17, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy (13) is greeted after hitting a solo home run against the New York Mets during the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Max Muncy (13) is greeted after hitting a solo home run against the New York Mets during the sixth inning at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
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The NL West has been an interesting division so far in 2023. The Arizona Diamondbacks head NL West going into May, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres both seek more consistency. The San Francisco Giants are struggling to keep pace, while the Colorado Rockies have not competed for much of the season so far.

Here are some bold predictions for each NL West team for the month of May

Los Angeles Dodgers – Max Muncy to drop out of top 10 HR leaders

Max Muncy is the current home run leader in MLB, not just NL West, with 11 home runs. The Los Angeles Dodgers infielder has been producing dingers in 2023, but the prediction is that this won’t continue.

Looking at Baseball Savant’s Home Runs Leaderboard, which analyses home runs, just 27% of these would have been a home run in all 30 ballparks. The hitters chasing Muncy are all above him in this measure. Patrick Wisdom (Cubs), Pete Alonso (Mets), and Rafael Devers (Red Sox) are just one homer behind Muncy in the table.

Despite Muncy’s expected HR rate (xHR) being superior to his rivals, he is on a two-game hitless streak and three games since his last home run. The prediction is that the four-homer spread from Muncy to 10th place will be bridged and then some after a quieter May.

Apr 28, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12), center fielder Alek Thomas (5) and right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrate defeating the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 28, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12), center fielder Alek Thomas (5) and right fielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrate defeating the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /

San Diego Padres – Matt Carpenter to lead RBI

Matt Carpenter has been, along with Nelson Cruz, integral to the San Diego Padres’ scoring ability in NL West in 2023. Both Carpenter and Cruz have 16 RBI each and are leading the Padres. It’s an interesting stat when you consider the Padres have Xander Bogaerts, Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatís Jr. in their line-up.

Carpenter’s 16 RBI have driven in Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth five times each, and the prediction is that this form will continue in May. Carpenter has 10 RBI in the last seven games to punctuate his useful stats: .250 BA, .369 OBP, .908 OPS.

Based on Carpenter’s hot streak, and the return of Tatís Jr. to spark the Padres’ offensive capabilities, the prediction is that he will lead RBI for the Padres in May.

Arizona Diamondbacks – will record .750 at home

In the month of May, the Arizona Diamondbacks have two home stints. In the first one, they will meet the Washington Nationals (.370), Miami Marlins (.552), then finish with a four-game series against the San Francisco Giants (.407).

May ends with the back-to-back series against the Boston Red Sox (.517) and the Colorado Rockies (.310) at Chase Field.

Surprisingly, it is only the Nationals who have a winning record on the road in 2023 with 7-6. When considering each opponent’s record against >.500 teams in 2023, the Marlins are 7-6 (home and away), whereas all the rest have incurred far more losses than wins.

The Diamondbacks are 8-6 at home, but the prediction is that they will win 12 of their 16 home games in May.

DENVER, CO – APRIL 29: Kris Bryant #23 of the Colorado Rockies walks off the field after a fly out in the seventh inning of a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on April 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
DENVER, CO – APRIL 29: Kris Bryant #23 of the Colorado Rockies walks off the field after a fly out in the seventh inning of a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on April 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) /

Colorado Rockies – Rox will win no more than five games

The Colorado Rockies enter May with a surprising, and deserved, 12-4 win over the NL West leaders Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies will want to put together a winning streak to climb the division.

The Rockies, however, have only succeeded in putting together losing streaks, and May looks like April on repeat. Starting the month against the Milwaukee Brewers, two series against the New York Mets, a trip to PNC Park to face the red-hot Pittsburgh Pirates and the Rockies finish their testing month at the Arizona Diamondbacks.

April was poor, with a 9-20 record to end the month (including just seven wins in April), and the prediction is that the Colorado Rockies will win just five games in May.

San Francisco Giants – Blake Sabol will break out in both batting and fielding

It may be his first season in the majors, but Blake Sabol has not looked out of place so far. Playing as catcher or outfielder, Sabol has fitted into the Giants line-up admirably. In his 60 at-bats, Sabol has 5 home runs and 10 RBI for his .233 batting average.

In the catching position, a .955 fielding percentage is somewhat diminished by five errors, but he has been solid in the outfield, converting all five of his putout chances.

A walk-off home run against the St Louis Cardinals has been Sabol’s high point so far, but May should see more heroics from the 25-year-old. The prediction is that Sabol will cement his place for the Giants and drastically increase his batting average and overall fielding efficiency in May.

Next. Bold predictions for every NL Central team. dark

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