The Chicago Cubs are calling up prize prospect Matt Mervis from Iowa for Friday’s series opener against the Miami Marlins. They need him.
Summoning Mervis might provide what the Cubs need most right now, a jolt. Since winning 13 of their first 22 games and in the process looking like a legitimate post-season contender, the team has fallen into a first-rate funk.
The Cubs have lost seven of their last nine games, and six of those defeats have come to the Marlins and Nationals, clubs a contender would beat up on.
That funk is almost entirely the fault of the offense. Since April 26, the Cubs have averaged a little better than three runs per game. That’s down from the 5.8 runs per game they had been averaging against better competition.
On Wednesday, the Cubs lost 2-1 to the Nationals despite having their ace, Marcus Stroman, on the mound, because they couldn’t hit a kid making his major league debut. They touched Jake Irvin and the very ordinary Nats bullpen for just six base hits, all of them singles.
On Friday they lost 4-3. Those were the fourth and fifth one-run defeats during this sluggish stretch.
The sore spots are first base and designated hitter, the two spots Mervis happens to play. Chicago has been using a pair of veterans, Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer, at those spots, and while their batting averages are plausible their production has not been.
Mancini has been the better of the pair. He’s batting .268 although with only a so-so .381 slugging average. That’s okay for a slap hitter, not so good for a power guy, which is what your first baseman is supposed to be. He’s hit three home runs and driven in 16, but only two since the team’s slide began.
The numbers for Hosmer, the most commonly used DH, are worse. He’s hitting .250 with a .363 slugging average, two home runs and 13 RBIs. Since the team is approaching the one-fifth point of the season, that projects out to a 10-homer, 65 RBI season, which would be the second worst of Hosmer’s 13-year career, better only than last year.
There’s an obvious danger in looking to rookies to fire up your lineup, but Mervis looks like he might be just the guy to do it. Through 25 games at Triple A Iowa, he’s batting .286 with a .560 slugging average. Granted, that’s Triple A and not the majors, but his slugging average is still a gracious 197 points higher than Hosmer and 179 points higher than Mancini.
Mervis has obvious physical tools. The team’s No. 6 prospect, he’s an interesting 6-2 and 225 lbs.
He’s hit six home runs and driven in 27. He’s also hinted at plate discipline, always a valuable commodity. Mervis has a .402 on base percentage, and strikes out a relatively low 21 percent of the time. For comparison, Mancini has a 30 percent K rate; Hosmer’s is 24 percent.
Again, it needs to be noted that Mervis is doing that at Triple A, not the big leagues. But it’s also fair to note that among current Cub regulars, only Ian Happ and Dansby Swanson are reaching base 40 percent of the time.
Mancini and Gomes prop up the bottom of the Cubs’ roster in that category, at .314 and .294 respectively.
Judging by ERA – they are third in the NL at 3.54 — the Cubs still have a solid pitching core. Indeed, in their most recent 2-7 stretch they’ve allowed just 32 runs, that’s 3.6 runs per game. When your pitching is that effective, you ought to be 6-3 across a nine-game stretch, not 3-6.
The problem has been an under-performing offense, especially in timely circumstances. Through their eight-game funk, the Cubs are averaging eight runners left on base per game. Mancini has stranded nine runners in scoring position; for Hosmer that number is four.
When your offense is creaking, lack of production from veteran power guys really hurts. The Cubs are 2-7 this season in one-run games. Mervis may not be the answer. But judging by the way he’s performing at Iowa compared with how his seniors are doing in Chicago, it’s time to find out.