St. Louis Cardinals need a boost from Miles Mikolas

Miles Mikolas finally backed up his exceptional 2018 season with a strong performance for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022, earning his second All-Star nod. The righty posted a 3.29 ERA, the first season he was below 4.00 since that 2018 masterpiece. St. Louis rewarded Mikolas with a contract extension before the 2023 season.

It may be time for the St. Louis Cardinals to look at the pitch mix of Miles Mikolas

Mikolas’ production has dipped in 2023, with a 5.79 ERA and a .908 opponent OPS entering his start on Monday. There has not been much of a change in Mikolas’ arsenal, his velocity has basically held since 2019. Instead, Mikolas has thrown his sinker 5 percent more, and batters have teed off to the tune of a .382 batting average. Against his four-seam, Mikolas has allowed a .424 batting average. Seven home runs have been hit against Mikolas.

Mikolas has posted a career low whiff rate, which was never strong to begin with. However, Mikolas’ slider has been good historically, posting batting averages below .250 since 2021. One glance at the offering, it is easy to see why the slider is so effective.

Mikolas throws his four main pitches about 25 percent of the time, but it may be time to reevaluate that pitch mix. Opponents have hit just .222 against Mikolas’ slider, whiffing at a 23.3 percent rate. It is not far off to hypothesize that Mikolas’ slider being thrown more may help his sinker profile a bit better. Both move violently downhill, but in different directions, which could leave batters guessing.

Taking a look at Mikolas’ Baseball Savant page, his four-seam heat map seems to be a bit more scattered towards the middle than last season. Mikolas threw the majority of his fastballs up in the zone in 2022, while his 2023 fastballs have lived lower in the zone. Establishing the top of the zone will likely allow Mikolas’ two-planed slider to play better.

Mikolas and the St. Louis Cardinals will square off with the Cubs at Wrigley Field on Monday. Chicago’s offense has been hot to begin the season, yet another test for the veteran Mikolas.