Boston Red Sox: 5 reasons for the surprise turnaround in 2023
The Rafael Devers extension
For most of the 2022 season, a cloud hung over the team. Xander Bogaerts, a homegrown star, was entering the final year of the extension he had signed before the opt-out in his contract. The team had made little effort to sign Bogaerts and avoid him opting out of his contract and testing the free agent market, other than a laughable offer they made to him in spring training of tacking an extra year worth $30 million onto the end of the deal that a close friend of his his reportable called a “slap in the face.” Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, and Christian Vazquez, all key contributors from the historic 2018 championship team, were also on the final year of their deals and the team had shown no interest in resigning them either.
As a result, the vibes were off for almost the entire season as many wondered whether this would be the last ride for that group. They would only get worse after Vazquez was traded to Houston at the deadline and clubhouse favorite Kevin Plawecki was released in September. Many wondered if we would get a repeat of this in 2023 as Rafael Devers was entering the final year of his rookie contract. Red Sox owner John Henry was met with boos and heckles of “pay Raffy ” and “pay anyone” while attending the winter classic matchup at Fenway Park between the Bruins and Henry’s NHL team, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The very next day, the Red Sox announced they had signed Devers to a 10 year, $313.5 million extension. By doing this, the Red Sox not only avoided a repeat of the Bogaerts fiasco from last season, but also sent a message to their players that they are still serious about winning.
The Emergence of Alex Verdugo
Alex Verdugo came to Boston with huge expectations as the centerpiece of the deal that sent Mookie Betts to the the Los Angeles Dodgers. Initially, he showed signs of living up to those expectations. He had a strong start to his Red Sox career in 2020, hitting .308 with six home runs, an .844 OPS, and finishing 12th in the AL MVP race. He would take a step backwards in 2021 as his OPS would reduce down to .777.
However, he would be even worse in 2022. He would be barely a league average hitter, hitting for a .732 OPS, a strikeout rate (13.4) that was twice his walk rate (6.5), and a 102 OPS+. On top of all of that, he saw his defense and overall athleticism decline his well. He stole only one base the entire season, after stealing four in 53 games during the COVID-19-shortened 2020 season and post a -5.4 UZR and a -17.3 UZR/150 rating in right field.
After his disappointing loss in 2022, he was challenged by Alex Cora to step it up in 2023 saying, “Yeah, he hit for average, but he can be a lot better baserunning wise and defensively. He’s getting to that area in his career, where [you ask] who is he going to be.” Verdugo took Cora’s comments personally saying, “It was just that final straw, man. I was just tired of people always having something to say about me and it’s like, you know what, (expletive) it. Let’s handle what I can handle. Let’s control what I can control and put in the work.”
In response to Cora’s comments, Verdugo lost weight during the offseason to become more athletic and came into 2023 determined to prove that he still was the elite player the Red Sox saw in him in 2020. So far this season, he has answered the bell, getting off to a sizzling start at the plate, hitting .316 with five home runs and a .908 OPS. He has lowered his strikeout rate to a career low 12.1 and increased his walk rate to 8.7. He already has stolen two more bases than he did all of last season and saw his defense improve as well with a 1.7 UZR rating and a 8.1 UZR/150 rating.
The bullpen
Ever since the Red Sox Sox let Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly walk in free agency following the 2018 World Series season, the back end of the bullpen has been an issue for the Red Sox. However, nothing compares to how terrible it was in 2022. The Red Sox bullpen blew 28 saves in 2022. It’s plausible that, if the bullpen had converted just a third of those saves, that Boston could have snuck into the postseason.
The Red Sox aggressively looked to upgrade their bullpen this offseason, signing Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez in free agency and trading for Wyatt Mills and Richard Bleier. Jansen and Martin have been nails in the backend of the Red Sox bullpen. Jansen has pitched to a 0.84 ERA and has converted eight saves in nine opportunities. Martin has a 1.80 ERA and has six holds in six save situations.
These acquisitions have also had a positive impact on the rotation. As they allowed the team to move Tanner Houck, who last year served as the team’s closer, into the rotation following injuries in spring training to James Paxton and Brayan Bello. Josh Winchowski has also emerged as a weapon in the bullpen (which we’ll discuss in more detail later) following injuries to Mills, Martin, and Rodriguez.
The youth movement is paying off
Three young players have emerged to play key roles for this team: Connor Wong, Josh Winckowski, and Jarren Duran.
One of the biggest question marks heading into this season for the Red Sox was at catcher. Reese McGuire had held down the fort the second half of last year after Christian Vazquez was traded to the Astros and had actually hit well, but many questioned whether McGuire (who had a .683 career OPS heading this season and had never had more than 274 plate appearances in a single season) could handle a full-time role. Wong did not inspire much confidence either, hitting .188 with a .585 OPS in 56 plate appearances last season.
Many expected the Red Sox to target someone during the offseason to be their everyday catcher, moving McGuire into a backup role and Wong serving as a depth piece in Triple-A. However, the Red Sox decided to run it back with McGuire and Wong in 2023. Initially, it looked like a disaster as the Orioles stole 10 bases off McGuire in the first two games of the season. However, Wong has emerged as a weapon for the Red Sox, both in the running game and at the plate. Wong has the second fastest pop time (time between when the pitch hits and the catchers mitt and when the throw hits the shortstop or second basemen’s glove on a steal attempt) in baseball at 1.88, and is hitting .268 with three home runs and a .804 OPS.
Winckowski got off to a decent start to his career in 2022, pitching to a 4.38 ERA in his first seven starts, but would tumble back down to earth pitching to a 7.56 ERA over the course of his final seven starts and one relief appearance. He was expected to start the year in the Triple-A Worcester rotation but, after injuries in both the rotation and bullpen, he began the year in the Red Sox bullpen. In 23 innings over 13 games, Winckowski has pitched to a 1.57 ERA and has settled into a role as the Red Sox setup man. Both of these developments have especially been a win for Red Sox CBO Chaim Bloom as Wong was acquired in the trade for Mookie Betts, and Winckowski was acquired in the deal for Andrew Benintendi.
Probably the biggest development though has been that of Duran. He was a much-hyped prospect heading into the 2021 season, but struggled at the MLB level his first two seasons, hitting a combined .219 with five home runs and a .622 over 335 plate appearance between 2021 and 2022. Many Red Sox fans were considering Duran to be a bust and calling for him to be traded this offseason. After putting on some muscle, making some adjustments to his mechanics, and making an effort to hit to the opposite field more, Duran appears to have turned the corner in 2023, hitting .382/.429/.632 and 183 OPS+ so far this season providing some much-needed offense from the center field position for the Red Sox after Adam Duvall went down with a wrist injury. He’s also been a force on the basepaths, stealing four bases on four attempts.
Masataka Yoshida
The Red Sox needed a bat to replace Xander Bogaerts’ production in the lineup after he signed a massive contract with the San Diego Padres this offseason. After missing out on Jose Abreu to the Astros, and obviously missing out on Bogaerts, the Red Sox signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year, $105.4 million contract. Some in the industry panned the move, calling it an overpay. It did not help the Red Sox case when Yoshida got off to a slow start. In his first 10 games, he hit .216/.356/.324 with an 86 OPS+ and only two extra-base hits. A major reason for this slow start is that he was making a lot of soft contract into the ground.
However, making some adjustments to his game, including lowering his hand and going the other way more, Yoshida has taken off at the plate. He is now hitting .315 with six home runs, including two in one inning in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers, and a .937 OPS. Meanwhile, the man he replaced (Bogaerts) is posting an .835 OPS with the Padres.
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