Cincinnati Reds: Graham Ashcraft has a serious Chicago problem

May 7, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft (51) pitches against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports
May 7, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Graham Ashcraft (51) pitches against the Chicago White Sox in the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds made a major tactical blunder Sunday afternoon when they let Graham Ashcraft take his regular turn against the White Sox.

If one thing is clear about Ashcraft at this early stage of his career, it is this: never put him on the mound when the opponent is from Chicago.

Although only 25 years old and with barely one year of MLB experience to his name, this much is abundantly clear about the Cincinnati Reds starter. Against 27 of the other 29 major league teams, he is a first-rate major league pitcher.

Against teams from Chicago, Ashcraft turns into pudding.

Cincinnati Reds: Graham Ashcraft has a serious Chicago problem

Even the equivalent of one season’s worth of numbers are startling. Ashcraft has made 21 starts against 14 teams based anywhere except the Windy City. His record in those 21 starts is impressive: He’s 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA in 122.2 innings of work.

Against the Cubs or White Sox, some weak-kneed imposter shows up in Ashcraft’s place. His start Sunday was his fifth against a Chicago-based team. He’s 0-5 with a 14.75 ERA, having completed just 18.1 innings in those five starts.

The Sox did their part on Sunday at Great American Ball Park, pounding Ashcraft for six hits and eight runs, all of them earned, inside of two innings. That was in keeping with his four 2022 starts against the Cubs, when Ashcraft was rocked for 22 earned runs and 23 base hits in 16.2 innings.

The chart below illustrates the bi-polar experience of being Graham Ashcraft against Chicago teams versus all other competitors.

                                   Batting average  On Base average    Slugging average

Vs. Chicago teams            .337                        .377                        .470

Vs. all others                      .248                        .297                        .330

Chicago batters consistently pummel Ashcraft for nearly 100 points more in batting average, 80 points more in on base average and 140 points more in slugging average than their major league colleagues.

And it’s been consistent. In five starts against the Cubs or White Sox, he’s only given up fewer than five earned runs once. In 21 starts against the rest of baseball, he’s only allowed more than three earned runs four times.

Four of the five worst performances of his career have come against Chicago-based teams. The only exception was a 7-3 loss last June to the Milwaukee Brewers, who tapped him for six runs.  Ashcraft hasn’t allowed a non-Chicago based opponent more than four earned runs since then.

When the Cubs came to Cincinnati in early April, the Reds did a smart thing, making sure Ashcraft’s turn did not come around. If they maintain a strict five-man rotation, Ashcraft will get lucky again when the Reds go to Chicago at the end of May; he’ll pitch in St. Louis the day before.

The Reds are, of course, through with the White Sox for this season and, after that Memorial weekend series, they don’t see the Cubs again until the end of July. That should give Ashcraft — who’s pitching to a 2.00 ERA this season against non-Chicago-based opponents — plenty of time to further enhance his resume against MLB’s soft underbelly.

For Ashcraft, that’s virtually every team that plays anywhere other than Chicago.