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Resurgence of the Red Sox outfield: How Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, and Jarren Duran are powering Boston’s success

By Justin Girshon |
May 1, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) hits a walk off home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
May 1, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Alex Verdugo (99) hits a walk off home run against the Toronto Blue Jays during the ninth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
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After making the American League Championship Series in 2021, the Boston Red Sox were one of the most disappointing teams in Major League Baseball last year. The Red Sox finished 78-84 in 2022, and after an offseason in which Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi departed in free agency, many Red Sox fans didn’t feel a sense of hope for 2023.

However, even in the loaded American League East, the Red Sox have started this season strong with a 26-22 record.

One of the biggest reasons the Boston Red Sox have gotten off to a strong start and exceeded industry expectations has been their outfield play.

Last season, Red Sox outfielders combined for 1.6 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), the fourth-lowest in Major League Baseball. This season, though, Boston’s outfielders have helped anchor the Red Sox lineup, combining for 5.5 fWAR, the second most in MLB.

Here’s a look into how the Red Sox outfield has transformed from one of the worst position groups to one of the best in one season.

Alex Verdugo
2023 stats: 47 G, .290/.366/.464 (126 wRC+), 3 OAA, 1.3 BsR, 1.6 fWAR

When the Red Sox traded Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Alex Verdugo was the centerpiece of the return. While Verdugo was very good in the shortened 2020 season, he regressed offensively and defensively in 2021, then took another step backward in both departments in 2022.

In 2020, Verdugo hit .308/.367/.478 (125 wRC+) with 2 Outs Above Average defensively but, in 2022, he hit .280/.328/.405 (103 wRC+) with -5 Outs Above Average. Verdugo’s slightly above-average offense and poor defense led to him accumulating 1.2 fWAR, the lowest of his career (minimum 50 games played).

However, despite only playing 47 games so far in 2023, Verdugo has already surpassed his fWAR total from a year ago, leading Red Sox outfielders with 1.6. Verdugo has consistently hit for a high average, which has kept him above league average at the plate, but his power has been limited.

In 2023, though, Verdugo’s .175 ISO is the second-highest of his career and his .464 SLG is the third-best of his career. With career highs in Barrel% and FB%, while sporting a career low in GB%, Verdugo is having a resurgent power season. Combined with his elite contact% (96th percentile) and plate discipline (91st percentile K%, 50th percentile BB%), Verdugo is on pace to have his best offensive season.

Additionally, with his switch from left field to right field, Verdugo has improved drastically defensively. From 2021-2022 primarily as a left fielder, Verdugo accumulated -4 Defensive Runs Saved and -11 Outs Above Average. Now, exclusively as a right fielder, Verdugo has accumulated 4 Defensive Runs Saved and 3 Outs Above Average.

Apr 23, 2023; Boston Red Sox left fielder Masataka Yoshida (7) hits a grand slam home run during the eighth inning of their game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 23, 2023; Boston Red Sox left fielder Masataka Yoshida (7) hits a grand slam home run during the eighth inning of their game against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports /

Masataka Yoshida
2023 stats: 40 G, .308/.384/.494 (139 wRC+), -2 OAA, -1.7 BsR, 0.8 fWAR

One of the reasons the Red Sox moved Verdugo from left field to right field was that they signed Masataka Yoshida for $90 million over five years. Yoshida, who excelled in Japan, was brought in as the Red Sox’s marquee free agent, which the public didn’t react to well — particularly because the team opted not to make an effort to keep franchise icon Xander Bogaerts.

In addition to fans, even some scouts weren’t fond of the signing, particularly those who spoke with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel. “In total, I spoke to ten sources in the aftermath of the signing and they all had a similar breakdown,” McDaniel said. “They all had some level of appreciation for the player, but thought the Red Sox overpaid by a hefty margin.”

During the World Baseball Classic, while representing Japan, Yoshida showed why the Red Sox gave him the loftiest guarantee of any position player making the jump from Nippon Professional Baseball to the majors, being named to the WBC All-Tournament team and helping Japan win the tournament.

Despite a slow start, Yoshida has been one of the best offensive outfielders in MLB. Among 65 qualified outfielders, Yoshida’s 139 wRC+ (which is one point lower than Mike Trout’s) is the 12th-best.

Although Yoshida has struggled defensively and on the bases to start his major league career, his bat makes him one of the most valuable hitters in Boston’s lineup.

May 10, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16) hits a double against the Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
May 10, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Boston Red Sox center fielder Jarren Duran (16) hits a double against the Atlanta Braves during the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /

Jarren Duran
2023 stats: 32 G, .321/.376/.518 (140 wRC+), 2 OAA, 1.4 BsR, 1.3 fWAR

Jarren Duran was one of Boston’s best prospects before he graduated from prospect status, but he struggled immensely in his first two Major League seasons. In 91 games between 2021 and 2022, Duran hit .219/.269/.354 (68 wRC+) en route to accumulating -0.8 fWAR.

Duran didn’t make Boston’s Opening Day roster, but he was called up halfway through April. Since getting called up, Duran has been the everyday center fielder for the Red Sox, and he’s done everything to make sure it stays that way.

Hitting .321/.376/.518 (140 wRC+), Duran is having an exceptional offensive season. The driving forces behind Duran’s offensive breakout have been his improved plate discipline and batted ball data.

From 2021-2022 to 2023, Duran’s K% is down 5.1%, BB% is up 1.8%, Barrel% is up 1.8% and Hard Hit% is up 7.0%. While it’s been a small 125 plate appearance sample size and his .418 BABIP suggests he’s due for regression, Duran’s offense is very encouraging and has been much needed for the Red Sox.

Even if Duran regresses offensively, he can still be a valuable piece for the Red Sox. Duran has elite speed, as his sprint speed ranks in the 93rd percentile. With the help of his speed, Duran’s 1.4 BsR and 2 OAA are both already career highs, and they have the potential to be elite marks over a full season if Duran keeps up his current pace on the bases and in the outfield.

Adam Duvall, Rob Refsnyder and Raimel Tapia

In the first week of 2023, Adam Duvall was as good as any player in the majors. Duvall was so good that despite only playing in eight games, he accumulated 1.1 fWAR – nearly as valuable as the entire Red Sox outfield was in 2022. However, Duvall broke his wrist, and he has been out since early April. Duvall is expected to rejoin the team in June.

In only 57 games in 2022, Rob Refsnyder’s 1.3 fWAR led all Red Sox outfielders. In 2023, Refsnyder has transitioned to a bench role, but his bat has been valuable as he currently has a 117 wRC+.

In the offseason, the Red Sox signed Raimel Tapia to a minor league contract, but he made the team’s Opening Day roster. Tapia has played in a pinch this season, mostly as a replacement late in games. Despite not being a key contributor to the team, Tapia has played his role well, which is exactly what Boston needed from him.

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