AL Cy Young
1. Kevin Gausman
2023 stats: 82.0 IP, 2.63 ERA, 3.19 xERA, 2.30 FIP, 2.54 xFIP, 2.73 SIERA, 3.0 fWAR
Since his breakout season in 2020, Kevin Gausman has consistently been one of the best, yet most underrated pitchers in baseball. Last season, Guasman had the same fWAR as NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara, but he finished 10th in AL Cy Young voting.
This season, Gausman has continued to excel, with his 2.63 ERA on pace to be the best of his career. Gausman’s uncanny ability to generate strikeouts and whiffs while limiting walks has propelled him to lead the AL with a 28.9 K-BB%.
With Alek Manoah now in the minor leagues, Gausman’s performance has meant that much more to the Blue Jays, and he should without a doubt be in the Cy Young conversation at the end of the season.
2. Nathan Eovaldi
2023 stats: 80.1 IP, 2.24 ERA, 2.79 xERA, 2.45 FIP, 3.30 xFIP, 3.41 SIERA, 2.7 fWAR
Over the offseason, the Texas Rangers signed Jacob deGrom, thinking he’d likely be in the Cy Young conversation at this point in the season. deGrom is hurt, but it turns out the Rangers signed Eovaldi to be their Cy Young.
After leading the American League in pitcher fWAR in 2021, Eovaldi dealt with injuries in 2022, forcing him to pitch only 109.1 innings. After a down season, the Rangers swooped in and signed Eovaldi to a relatively team-friendly two-year, $34 million contract.
In 2023, the 33-year-old has done what he does best: eat innings, avoid walks and get his fair share of strikeouts. If he stays healthy, Eovaldi is on pace to have the best season of his career, and if he does that, he’ll definitely be in the Cy Young conversation at the end of the season.
3. Framber Valdez
2023 stats: 79.0 IP, 2.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 2.87 FIP, 2.70 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA, 2.3 fWAR
Like Gausman, Framber Valdez broke out in the 2020 season. However, an injury caused Valdez to miss the start of the 2021 season, thus the world had to wait an extra year to see how special of a pitcher Valdez is.
In his first full season, Valdez dominated, finishing fifth in AL Cy Young after pitching 201.1 innings to a 2.82 ERA. In 2023, the groundball king’s groundball rate is still elite, but now he’s striking out more batters while walking less.
With Justin Verlander now a New York Met, Valdez is the guy in Houston, and he’s looking the part extremely well. If Valdez remains productive down the stretch, he’s a surefire thing to finish top five in Cy Young voting.
Honorable mentions: Sonny Gray, Shane McClanahan
NL Cy Young
1. Zac Gallen
2023 stats: 78.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 3.88 xERA, 2.23 FIP, 3.16 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA, 3.1 fWAR
Zac Gallen pitched brilliantly across his first 152 innings in the big leagues between 2019 and 2020, but he took a step back in his first full season in 2021. However, in 2022, Gallen’s ace potential was on full display, especially when he tossed 41.1 consecutive scoreless innings.
In 2023, Gallen has continued dominance, as his 3.1 fWAR leads the NL by a landslide. With the Diamondbacks surging, they’ll need Gallen to continue his dominance. If keeps pitching as he as, Gallen weill surely be in striking distance of winning his first Cy Young.
2. Spencer Strider
2023 stats: 69.2 IP, 2.97 ERA, 2.70 xERA, 2.60 FIP, 2.83 xFIP, 2.63 SIERA, 2.1 fWAR
Seemingly coming out of nowhere, Spencer Strider was arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball last season. Strider’s 1.83 FIP was the fourth-lowest a pitcher posted in a single season since 2010, ranking behind only Corbin Burnes (1.63 FIP in 2021) and Clayton Kershaw (1.80 FIP in 2016, 1.81 FIP in 2014).
Although the home run ball has hit him much more in 2023 than in 2022, Strider has built off his rookie season. If Strider’s 38.3 K% as a rookie wasn’t impressive enough, he’s improved that clip to 40.6% this season, the highest among all starting pitchers in the majors.
Although he didn’t pitch enough last season to qualify for the Cy Young, that shouldn’t be a problem for Strider in 2023 as he consistently dominates deep into games.
3. Justin Steele
2023 stats: 68.0 IP, 2.65 ERA, 3.10 xERA, 2.85 FIP, 4.00 xFIP, 4.05 SIERA, 2.0 fWAR
Quietly, Justin Steele has become one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball. Although he’s not like Strider consistently striking guys out, he commands the ball really well and mostly keeps batted balls on the ground and hit softly.
Steele’s average exit velocity ranks in the 95th percentile while his hard hit% ranks in the 95th percentile. Despite a weak strikeout rate, Steele remains effective because he stays in the strike zone (82nd percentile), and when opposing batters make contact, it’s usually poor.
In the analytic-heavy baseball environment, Steele is somewhat of an anomaly, but that’s what helps propel him to be one of the NL’s best pitchers.
Honorable mentions: Logan Webb, Marcus Stroman