New York Yankees: Maybe Aaron Boone is right and Yanks are unlucky

After being swept by the hated Boston Red Sox this weekend, running their losing streak to four games, New York Yankees’ manager Aaron Boone mentioned that he liked the team’s at-bats. Despite the outrage of Twitter warriors, Boone might be on to something here. The Yankees are significantly below average in most of their counting stats, but the expected stats point to a possible turnaround.

Are the New York Yankees really unlucky?

As a team, the Bronx Bombers have posted a brutal slash line of .230/.298/.412. A rough weekend has further magnified the loss of Aaron Judge, by far and beyond the team’s best hitter. Well, things may not be as bad as they seem. The team’s expected batting average, calculated based on the quality of contact, checks in at .243, which is roughly league average. Furthermore, a 9.9 barrel percentage puts the team in the 93rd percentile of the league, comfortably above the league average of 8.3 percent.

Josh Donaldson has long drawn the ire of the fanbase, and the numbers completely justify those bad feelings. Take a peek under the hood, and Donaldson’s season becomes more about bad luck rather than a bad player. The veteran’s average exit velocity is up over a full mile per hour, and his barrel rate of 24.3 percent would be a career high. Yes, all of these numbers have come in just 60 plate appearances, but there are reasons to be optimistic.

Giancarlo Stanton, who also missed time like Donaldson, is also due for some positive regression based on his contact quality. Stanton has a maximum exit velocity in the 100th percentile, and an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph. The problem is, Stanton is simply not making enough contact. The hulking slugger has whiffed on 32.4 percent of his swings, which is actually an improvement over last season. Still, Stanton’s walk rate has plummeted to 5.9 percent, which would be his first season in single digits since 2018. Could a more selective approach pay off? Probably, given the strong quality of Stanton’s contact. At worst, maybe Stanton could improve his production by getting on base more often.

So yes, the cutthroat nature of New York sports fandom wants everyone to be fired, new players to be found, and for the “lost” season to be rejuvenated. Well, it has been only 72 games, injuries have plagued the offense, and the pitching has been strong. All this to say, hang in there New York Yankees fans, better times should be on the way.