Contenders or pretenders? Evaluating 5 MLB teams off to hot starts

Texas Rangers

When the Texas Rangers signed Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray for a combined $556 million before the 2022 season, it looked crazy, especially after Texas finished the season 68-94. In 2023, though, the Rangers have the third-best record in MLB and hold a 5.0-game lead in the AL West.

Part of the reason the Rangers quickly turned from one of the worst teams in the American League to the best is that the front office was undeterred from their big spending in the previous offseason. Signing Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney bolstered Texas’ starting rotation immensely — an area where the team struggled immensely in 2022.

Although deGrom is already out for the season and the majority of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, Eovaldi has stepped up and pitched like a Cy Young pitching to the fifth-lowest qualified ERA (2.56). Behind Eovaldi, Heaney, Gray and Dane Dunning have pitched fine, but it’d be in Texas’ best interest to acquire another front-line starter at the trade deadline.

In addition to being in the market for another starter, the Rangers should definitely be in the market for a couple of relievers, as the 4.31 bullpen ERA is 22nd in MLB.

While their pitching needs to be shored up, the Rangers’ lineup can play with anybody. So far, Seager and Semien have been the best infield in MLB, Josh Jung is the odds-on favorite to win American League Rookie of the Year, Jonah Heim and Adolis Garcia are in the midst of establishing themselves as two of the best players at their respective positions, Leody Tavares and Ezequiel Duran are enjoying breakout seasons and Nathaniel Lowe has built off his breakout 2022 season.

On all cylinders, Texas’ lineup is clicking from top to bottom and, as long as its pitching staff keeps the game within reasonable reach, the lineup is more than capable of winning any given themself. If the Rangers bolster their pitching staff, look out for this team in October.

My verdict: Contender
Consensus vote: 80% contender, 20% pretender

Miami Marlins

Besides trading for Luis Arraez and A.J. Puk, the Miami Marlins didn’t make any significant moves after going 69-93 in 2022. However, despite having a nearly quiet offseason, the Marlins have improved drastically. Sitting 3.5 games ahead of the Philadelphia Phillies for second place in the NL East and in possession of the first NL Wild Card spot, the Marlins have arguably been the most surprising team in MLB.

Led by Arraez hitting over .400 and Jorge Soler raking to a 149 wRC+, the Marlins lineup has been fine, but by wRC+ is 22nd best in MLB. Jazz Chisholm has missed significant time on the injured list, and his return will surely boost Miami’s lineup. However, beyond those three players and breakout outfielder Jesus Sanchez, the Marlins lineup is mostly bleak.

If Kim Ng and company are serious about making a return to October, they must address adding infield help at any position besides second base, where beyond Jon Berti, no player is playing all that well.

On the pitching side, the Marlins have been fairly strong, even with Sandy Alcantara taking a major step back from his 2022 Cy Young campaign. While Alcantara has struggled, pitching to a 4.97 ERA, 20-year-old rookie Eury Perez has pitched brilliantly (although regression is heavily likely) while Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett have been solid. If Alcantara can bounce back to the ace he is, Miami’s rotation is in a spot where they’d lineup well with any opposing team in a postseason series.

Additionally, led by Puk and Tanner Scott having breakout seasons, the Marlins bullpen has pitched to a respectable 3.91 ERA. Overall, the Marlins’ 8.7 pitching staff fWAR is the fifth-best in MLB.

Even though their pitching staff is in a position to compete in October, the Marlins’ lineup is multiple pieces away from being where it needs to be. Unless they pull off a blockbuster trade netting them a significant position player or two, I don’t see the Marlins as a contender.

My verdict: Pretender
Consensus vote: 24% contender, 76% pretender

Cincinnati Reds

All of a sudden, the Cincinnati Reds are the hottest team in baseball. After winning nine straight games, the Reds have the best record in a disappointing NL Central. Although many expected the Reds to struggle through another rebuilding season, that hasn’t been the case.

Instead, with the arrival of prospects Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain and Spencer Steer, Cincinnati’s lineup has been rejuvenated. Alongside veterans Jonathan India, T.J. Fridel, Jake Fraley, Tyler Stephenson, Kevin Newman and the return of Joey Votto, the Reds lineup that seemed like it would be one of the worst in MLB has turned into a strength.

Although heavily injured right now, Cincinnati’s pitching staff is why I was bullish on the team in the preseason. Headlined by Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, the Reds’ rotation will be strong once they both return from the injured list. Additionally, if Graham Ashcraft can return healthy and rejuvenated when he returns from the injured list, the Reds will have a three-headed monster leading their rotation.

In the bullpen, Alexis Diaz has arguably been the most dominant reliever in MLB this season. Additionally, Lucas Sims and Buck Farmer are pitching at the best levels of their careers, helping to bolster the back end of Cincinnati’s bullpen.

Although they’ll likely need to win their division in order to make the postseason, I can definitely see the Reds winning 85 games in order to do so. If Cinncinati can add a couple more pieces to its bullpen and another starter, the sky could be the limit for this team

My verdict: Contender
Consensus vote: 13% contender, 87% pretender

Arizona Diamondbacks

Similar to the Orioles, the Arizona Diamondbacks made a massive improvement from 2021 to 2022. After winning 52 games in 2021, the Diamondbacks won 74 in 2022, a 22-game improvement. With prospects Corbin Caroll and Jake McCarthy making their MLB debuts and breakout seasons from Daulton Varsho and Christian Walker, Arizona’s core seemed like it was starting to form.

Despite his great season, the Diamondbacks traded Varsho to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno. Although Moreno has struggled in 2023, Gurriel Jr. has been one of Arizona’s most productive hitters. Additionally, Ketel Marte has stayed healthy and played at a high level, Evan Longoria has proved to be a great free agent signing, Geraldo Perdomo is enjoying a breakout season and Christian Walker is building off of his 2022 season.

Most importantly, though, has been Carroll’s immediate impact. After a great 32-game audition at the end of 2022, Carroll not only looks like he’s running away as the NL Rookie of the Year, he leads all position players in fWAR and is propelling himself into the MVP conversation. Propelled by Carroll, the Diamondbacks’ 12.2 position player fWAR is the seventh-best in MLB.

On the other side of the ball, Zac Gallen is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young. Following a dominant 2022, Gallen leads all pitchers with a 3.3 fWAR. Additionally, after a breakout season in 2022, Merrill Kelly is pitching to a 2.90 ERA across 90.0 innings pitched. Although Gallen and Kelly have been one of the best one-two punches in MLB, the Diamondbacks have received virtually nothing in the rotation behind them.

In the bullpen, the Diamondbacks have a slew of arms that are pitching well, but they’re missing a dominant reliever capable of pitching in high-leverage situations if they’re serious about contending in October.

Although they’re currently leading an extremely competitive NL West, Arizona’s spot at the top could slip away if the necessary moves to make the team better aren’t made. If the front office is able to land another starter or two plus some help from the bullpen, Arizona is more than capable of making a run in October. However, if they don’t acquire significant enough pitching help, this team could slip out of contention down the stretch.

My verdict: Contender
Consensus vote: 75% contender, 25% pretender