Neander, Bendix and the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays: A mid-term grade

The Tampa Bay Rays completed the first half of their 2023 season Sunday afternoon and, by most accounts, it’s been a highly successful first half. Under the leadership of team president Erik Neander and general manager Peter Bendix, the Rays stand 54-27 at the 81-game mark. They lead the challenging AL East by 4.5 games.

But how much of an impact have the moves made by the Rays’ leadership team of Neander and Bendix truly had on Tampa Bay’s dominance of the division? What follows is a mid-term assessment of the front office personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the Rays’ performance.

Grading the Tampa Bay Rays at the midway point of the season

The standard of measurement is Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by the Rays front office impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players it signs at free agency or extends.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

Here’s how the team of Neander and Bendix stack up by those five yardsticks.

Free agency

The free agent market is widely viewed as a province of the rich. So it is interesting that in their management of a small market team, Neander and Bendix have been pretty wildly successful at it. That success is proof that the real key isn’t having money but spending it wisely.

Despite their lack of resources, Neander and Bendix have been active players at the free agent market since the end of the 2022 season. They have brought in, re-signed or extended a dozen players whose performance has impacted the 2023 Rays, and the sum of the impacts of those dozen is an impressive +3.1 games of WAA.

The most impactful of those moves was the three-year, $24 million extension given Yandy Diaz. He has responded with a +1.6 WAA first half. Starter Jeffrey Springs, who got a four-year, $31 million extension, produced a +0.7 WAA in his only three appearances before being shut down by an injury.

Of the 12 signings or extensions, seven have generated positive impact on the Rays, while only two have turned out negative; three have produced neutral value.

Neander and Bendix cut ties with six players who have done MLB time with other teams, and while those results have been mixed, the overall impact only adds up to -0.2 WAA, and again a negative number in this category is a good thing.

Those losses have not all been painless. Long-time outfield fixture Kevin Kiermaier signed with Toronto, and has given the Jays +2.1 of impact to date. Outfielder David Peralta landed with the Dodgers and has been a positive force there to the tune of +0.6 WAA.

But Neander and Bendix were smart to unload pitcher Corey Kluber. He signed with Boston and has made nine starts with a -1.3 WAA. Veteran catcher Mike Zunino, now with Cleveland, has had a -1.4 WAA impact on his new club.

Farm system

In their first season as a front office team in 2022, Neander and Bendix utilized 10 players who they promoted from Tampa Bay’s farm system. This does not count players such as Yonny Chirinos and Shane McClanahan who were system products promoted under the previous administration, Matt Silverman and Neander.

Those rookies, faces of the stripe of Taylor Walls and Josh Lowe, have matured into regular contributors in 2023. But it’s interesting that coming off that active 2022 rookie crop, Neander and Bendix have gone conservative in their use of their system this season.

Maybe it’s the difference being challenging and leading, as the Rays have done all of 2023. But, thus far, Tampa Bay has only promoted two system products who have impact the fortunes of the 2023 team, and neither of those promotions had a significant impact.

Pitcher Taj Bradley came up and has become a rotation starter, but with a neutral value. Bradley’s 5-3 record and 3.86 ERA in just 49 innings translates to a negligible -0.1 WAA.

The only other first-year player to see time this season was La Sorsa, who got in just 4.1 innings of work — with a 0.1 WAA — before being waived and picked up by the Washington Nationals.

Overall grade

Given Tampa Bay’s record, you’d expect Neander and Bendix to rate high for front office impact, and they do. But that grade is exceptional in only one area, and neutral in most. To the extent there is criticism to be made of the work of Neander and Bendix, it lies in that imbalanced pattern of activity.

Here’s the first-half report card on the Rays front office. Note that grades for players departing the organization are based on the reverse of those players’ WAAs with their new teams.

Mode                   WAA                      Grade

Acquired                 0.0                          C

Traded                  +0.5                          B

Signed                  +3.0                          A+

Lost                       +0.2                          C

Rookies                   0.0                          C

Overall                  +3.7                          A

Neander and Bendix have made 34 personnel moves since the end of the 2022 season impacting the fortunes of the 2023 Tampa Bay Rays. A solid 17 of those moves produced positive value for Tampa Bay as opposed to only nine carrying a negative impact (the remaining eight had a neutral impact).

When the first half grades for all 30 teams are calculated, it will be no surprise — given Tampa’s record — if Neander and Bendix rate at or near the top in all of MLB. It is an oddly uneven midterm report card, but still on balance a very solid one.