Grading Perry Minasian and the Los Angeles Angels front office for 2023 impact

Since the end of the 2020 season, Perry Minasian has been the brains behind the Los Angeles Angels front office. Through the first half of the 2023 season, Minasian’s Angels are contending in the AL West, a status that surprises many in the sport. How much credit does Minasian deserve for his team’s 44-37 record?

Ultimately Minasian’s reputation is likely to be settled based on what happens for the rest of this season. Do the Angels continue to contend? If not, does he unload two-way star Shohei Ohtani, who becomes a free agent at season’s end? That part of the story is yet to be written.

What follows is a mid-term assessment of the Angels’ front office personnel decisions since the conclusion of the 2022 World Series with a particular focus on the extent to which those decisions have helped or hindered the Angels’ performance.

The standard of measurement in Wins Above Average (WAA), a variant of Wins Above Replacement (WAR). For this purpose, WAA is preferable because unlike WAR, it is zero-based. That means the sum of all the decisions made by the Angels front office impacting the 2023 team gives at least a good estimate of the number of games those moves have improved (or worsened) the team’s status this season.

A team’s front office impacts that team’s standing in five ways. Those five are:

1.       By the impact of players it acquires from other teams via trade, purchase or waiver claim.

2.       By the impact of players it surrenders to other teams in those same transactions.

3.       By the impact of players not already under team control that it signs at free agency or extends beyond the original period of control.

4.       By the impact of players it loses to free agency or releases.

5.       By the impact of players it promotes from its own farm system.

With respect to Minasian, it’s worth noting that he did not play a leadership role in the signing of Ohtani, who was a product of the Billy Eppler administration. Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon are among several other players whose contracts Minasian simply inherited; their performance also does not factor into the GM’s rating.

With that as a qualifier, here’s how Minasian stacks up so far by those five yardsticks.

Acquired or traded

The Los Angeles Angels have adopted a passive, almost somnolent approach to their interactions with other teams since the end of the 2022 season. Minasian made only two acquisitions of major league talent, and only traded away, waived or sold four fringe players or prospects that to date have made a major league contribution to other teams.

He seemed largely content to play with the holdover group from 2022. It was not an illogical position to take given that the holdovers included Trout, Ohtani and Rendon.

The two big trade acquisitions were outfielder Hunter Renfroe and infielder Gio Urshela.

The Angels got Renfroe from Milwaukee for Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero and a minor leaguer. He’s been a disappointment, hitting .254 and generating -0.9 WAA to the Los Angeles cause.

Urshela, acquired from Minnesota last November in a trade that cost L.A. a minor leaguer, had been an infield fixture before an injury that will likely cost him the rest of the season. He’s batting .299 in 218 plate appearances, although with only two home runs. That absence of power is a big part of the reason why despite a solid average his contributions work out to -0.1 WAA.

None of the four departures have hurt in the short term, although either Junk and/or Peguero have the potential to change that assessment over time.

Free agency

Unable to come to terms with Ohtani on an extension, the Los Angeles Angels focused their free agency efforts on a host of second-tier additions. They signed or extended 11 interchangeable pieces, the net impact to date turning out to be modestly harmful.

From a performance standpoint, easily the most impactful move was the signing of former Dodger starter Tyler Anderson for three years at $39 million. Half a season into that deal, it’s not looking good for Minasian or his Angels.

Anderson is 4-2 in 14 starts, but with a problematic 5.54 ERA. The only thing that’s saved Anderson is an offense averaging nearly six runs per game when he takes the mound. His pitching line translates to a -1.0 WAA.

In sum, Minasian made 11 free agent-related moves fleshing out the Angels roster, and they have virtually broken even: Five were positive, five negative, one neutral and the net impact is -0.3 WAA.

On the other hand, eight members of the 2022 Angels roster were released or lost to free agency only to catch on with other teams.  But again, the impact has been at the margins. As measured by WAA, none of the eight impacted their new clubs by more than half a game, the total impact being -0.5. That negative score on free agent losses is a good thing for MInasian and the Angels.

Farm system

Minasian has brought seven system products to the big leagues for varying stretches thus far in 2023, but one has stood out above the rest.

Since being called up in mid-April, shortstop Zach Neto is hitting .259, accumulating a +3.0 Defensive Runs Saved score at shortstop, and reaching +1.3 WAA. Only Ohtani, Trout and Mickey Moniak have a higher WAA at the season’s halfway mark.

The only thing that has slowed Neto was an oblique strain, which sent him to the IL in mid-June. No timetable has been set for his return.

The rest of the rookie class has been pretty ordinary. Pitchers Andrew Wantz, Chase Silseth and Sam Bachman have played fill-in roles, and Silseth was sent down in early June.

Wantz has been the most-used with 14 relief appearances covering 22 innings. That’s been worth a +0.1 WAA.

But rookies have never been MInasian’s thing. Since taking over prior to the 2021 season, he’s only tried out 14 of them, the most impactful turning out to be Brandon Marsh. After so-so debuts in 2021 and 2022, the Angels flipped Marsh to Philadelphia in exchange for backup catcher Logan O’Hoppe.

The net impact of all of Minasian’s first year player contributions to the Angels is just +0.8 WAA, all of that plus more coming via Neto’s +1.3 in the first half of this season.